pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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Yeah, once the "go to" weather guy.....always the go to weather guy. I HATE dust, so you'll likely never get a visit from me....lol
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Boy am i glad you still "hang out" with us. Hope your enjoying the tumbleweeds bud . Yeah once inside 96, start adding weight to Ops over Ens. This trackin stuff is fun, and ahead of schedule for me, so its all good no matter who gets what. I know my yard is no snow magnet (sorry snowmagnet).
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Correct. We went from an 18z cutter to a 6z suppessor...in 12hours. If your going to parse through every op run (and I do....and i enjoy it), one can only can look for trends and general storm track w/ op runs at this lead.
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yep. 6z's now bring suppression depression into the mix when last evening we were cutting.... so many hazzards to this sport. Gut says too early in season for this system to be suppressed so far south. I was/am more worried about too far NW track. Will be fun to watch. One good takeaway is warmup continues to look less ominous. Happy Sunday all! Nut
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MA forum is somewhat in a tizzy, but vs 12z, this was a step in the right direction. First show of a transfer to the coast, and mid levels were better IMO. Much work to be done, but at a week out....plenty of time.
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Im sorry pal....but sometimes........... You should change your name to AlternateUniverse
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look at mid levels. Notably colder look at 500/700 vs 12z. Good enough for now.
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your right Bob, but its better than 12z and thats a step in the right direction for the GFS
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and........... we jump due east Im not sure whats not to like here. (not that this is the final evolution), but verbatim, I'd think this may turn out pretty nice
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look at the differences at 850 at 186. sheesh. colder look and may help
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yeah you could see a slightly better signal early on.
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500 is closed off at 180 and pumping the ridge out ahead. hmm
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Good to hear and agree. Op runs are just for fun at this juncture and should be taken with a grain of salt. Consensus and early track is all we really can take away from this lead time. Ens runs till about 5 days then we can start adding weight to the Op runs. It sure is easy to wanna believe though. No two ways about it.
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And the Euro is well south if the GFS and gives DC and south a beatdown. Fv3 was decent (although I didn’t look hard as I was doing brakes and rotors in wives SUV.). Point is a notable storm continues to look more likely. All we can hope for at this juncture.
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and a compromise of the 2 would make many happy.
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snowmagnet said nothing different than many others here. There is a general sense of excitement for a nice start to met winter, so enthusiasm is warranted. I'm sure most can sense the tone in many posts. It will tone down as we enter snow mode, but discussing as we are in 7 day leads, is fine......for now. edit - and if we bust, we are still doing what we love and many come here for. The thrill of the chase.
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and i see the police are entering the building in the main thread. Makes me giggle. Love how some post and get "away" with things and others get straight up handcuffs. It will be a bumpy ride to snowville this week.
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or fatal attraction..........
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if the continued muted look of the warmup continues, i'd think whatever your normal %'s are, that they might rise a bit. Will be interesting to see what the next week or so shows regarding the evolution of this warmup.
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as soon as i saw that map....i had a feeling you'd be "sharing".....:) Stock up on the coffee....gonna be a long week as the consensus has been growing for this storm to be a legit threat....and sizable as well. Heeerrrreeweeegooooooo
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Looking back over it again, I can see your point and how a retrograde solution would be possible and panels could support that option. If that happened it would be a rare occurrence, but would be pretty cool to see a follow up wave lay down the goods. Snow cover from SC all the way to Maine. Not bad for week 1 of true winter.
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would seemingly be a quick hitter as verbatim its just a piece left behind from main show, and while possible, would have to pop rather quickly to make much happen. I'm sure the SE crew would be glad to see it all the same.
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and looking at Ens guidance at 500 says the warmup is a rather muted/mundane one.
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Saw that and was wondering about that one as well. Will be interesting to see if it continues to pop on future runs. 6z keeping hope alive. Pretty cool to turn the calendar to day 1 of real tracking season (for me anyway) and to be looking at what now is a legit MA mauler.
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Yeah. Nothing to complain about there.
