pasnownut

hint....thats a great way to not make it to 10. alright....i'm done playing. Back to winter storm gonnasnowlotsa...

me neither........but i've been married for 25 years. Guess thats why I spend half of my life (in winter) starting at sexy maps.

Yep. Got anything better to look at in the next 5 days?

why yes...... yes it does. Just 197 hours away from a flush _hit (leaves all options open)

My nooner takeaway.... IF you take a blend of GFS and EURO, its still a decent track, which is all i worry about right now.

Just read your last post and agree wholeheartedly. Lots of options, but lots of possible hits. While its pure craziness to parse op runs at 198hours, like stated many times, its why many are here...so long as you dont live and die by each run (and post like it). Level heads and keep it Chill (see what I did there Bob). Fun times ahead....

IF that HP is as big as modeled, no doubt that will play into CAD and front end thumpage potential.

I have a tent that you could move them into.....

If its 1041, its not just gonna scoot skidaddle outta here. I'd just focus on track at this juncture, and on an op run, thats not very narrow in scope. Looks to be a doozy nontheless. verbatim, I'd take the GFS track an climo and see what falls where. Its just 1 run in way out there land.

Watch the rest of the GFS run. That storm track would absolutely crush most of this subforum. HP is big and is there, and likely would be undermodeled for CAD signal if it is at 1041mb. Yes moves unfavorably (not sure i buy that move) to more of an easterly fetch, but at 700 we are fine, and only lower levels are in trouble. 500 evolution is not a great look, but plenty of time for this to change. FWIW GEFS looks notably different (better) at 500 so, i'd hang my little hat on it for now... However the outcome, this looks like one to watch.

thanks for the explanation. I figured it quite an undertaking.

Gotta love parsing over 2156 hour panels of op runs. Be that as it may, the Euro stepped in a better direction to me.

Why wouldn't they want to incorporate and updates into the current GEFS. Too much math? j/k

Fv3 is to blame.... sweet mother of all things holy....

who goes first.........

unless it shows a widespread 12+"...then steady as she goes. That's a good question btw, i was wondering when the transition would occur.

saw that. Gotta love the look...even if only 8 days out. Verbatim that's a doozy.

looked a bit last night and yes, next week has my interest. Left cabin yesterday w/ 8-10 still on the ground and had 2" between monday night and yesterday (snowing lightly when we left before lunch). Hoping we get some more before we may thaw. Nut

Lots to be thankful for today. Happy Thanksgiving all. Headed to cabin tomorrow (going early) as there was approx 12 to 15" OTG on top earlier this week, and I've got shoveling/plowing to do before the gang gets there. Not sure how much ice we have Saturday, but it appears that a few hours of slickness is possible before the cold is scoured out. Also looks like after the Sunday/Monday system, we may have some fun to talk about. See yall later next week. Nut

Yep. Saw that. Looks tasty and plenty of time for things to trend more favorably.

Just playing around on the pivitol maps and found this map. Not something youll often see but it was amusing to me. west wind much?

fog....ughh. hunters delight....not if i could trust the GFS at distance, it looks like tuesday of rifle gets colder/snow. with the snow OTG up there now, i think it will likely be white for the hunters no matter. Hearing that bear hunters are having trouble w/ the deep snowpack. Pack it down for me boys....i'm getting old. Happy Sunday and Turk week everyone!

Was hunting yesterday and didnt get to look, but fair to say, you've got my interest. I was anticipating a warmup post turk day, but hey, I'll deal w/ cold/snow. I can do it :).

Yeah this was a big winner just by how everyone cashed in.

Yeah i agree. When we went to bed, i told my wife the same thing. mid 30's saved us a lot of headache overnight/morning commute. Plus, it will give us time to get "ready" for the next one. Crazy pics we've been seeing.