pasnownut

I saw montague cams had some frostings on the ground as well. I hope you guys gett pummeled as well. Miss sledding up there. May make a trip. Have a bunch of friends that still go.

first flakes reported at the cabin (from a friend). also Potter got their first flakes. http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/ Have a great Thursday!

And then we just pray that the flip............... doesn't flop!

Saw that on radar. NEPA also might have pulled off a few cat paws as well.

but too far west and we may play on the wrong side of the line sometimes as the trough axis may be too far west. Oh the horrors.

Just change that to more of a basin wide/west and lock er up!!

I briefly looked the other day. Yes, hoping the stubborn GOA low is not a player this year and is replaced by a ridge w/ a bit of cross polar flow. Is that asking too much??

Agreed. Pac drives the winter bus for many of us, so +PNA would be a BIG + no matter how big the + really is. Having that alone would let me roll the winter dice. Throw in some help from NAO/EPO and I'll push all my chips in...no matter the result. I'm a believer that around here it needs to be cold to snow before anything else. While, there are other ways to do it, they are just too low % IMO. Gonna be fun this year. Nut

I think many are just happy to see things aligning with the potential for a decent winter. I'd take the snapshots above....no extrapolation for NH needed. To your point, it shows potential for an active winter and at this juncture....something to be excited about. Looking forward to the evolution and discussions thereof. Nut

Been following him for a while. Hard not to like where we are........so far Hold the line......hold the line...... As stated above, if the H5 look from afar comes to fruition for DJF....most here would gladly take our chances. Even if Nino stays low end and and we have only 1" of snow on 10" of frozen ponds....at least it might stick around and feel like deep winter. Of course I'd be happier to have those numbers switched. Getting too old to ice skate.

Fair enough...... plus were a cool crew to hang around with. We expect pics when you and your crony jackpot this year.

You know your inner snow weenie is dyin to get out and play...... I've seen you exited enough to not let up on you just yet......

You must have missed my tone. I agree with you wholeheartedly as I do NOT trust the models and to a lesser/greater degree (based on personal knowledge) do try look for ways to believe/disbelieve what the models show. I've learned lots in the last few years regarding large scale tellies etc., but still have much to learn. In fairness, i've seen many on the board wanting to believe and arguing why it should happen, to see it go poof. I referenced your location only because your latitudes gives you wiggle room....no matter what the models show, or what any of us believes. Looking forward to seeing how things take shape in the next 4-8 weeks. Cautious optimism.

true, but 1 episode that has come to fruition is not enough for me to trust any modeled NAO. In fairness, you have more wiggle room and can live without a little better than us in the Northern MA. no matter, that 2m temp map outta da UK is surely something pleasing to the eyes for much of the East. Looking forward to meeting Autumn. She arrives tonight.

................................................... Just playin. Couldnt resist though. With the front approaching, gotta say I'm a bit giddy right now.

I think we all like that idea....but the elusive NAO has some work to do in gaining back trust IMO. Looking forward to the first look through the snow globe to see where were all headed. Getting close.

I'd like to introduce everyone to a new and most welcome guest that will be arriving this evening, and will be staying in our area for a while..... Her name is Autumn. She's quite a colorful individual and looks to be a refreshing change from what we're used to. On behalf of everyone here (except that Schuylkill county dude ).....we welcome you. Enjoy your stay! Nut

Welcome back. Hope you werent in the black hole pictured above. Yikes

Looking at overnights, it really looks like Thursday night is the start of true fall round these parts. Looking forward to it. AOBN for as far as the eye (model) can see. Ensemble 2m temp anomalies look to support this at varying degrees. I'm in. Nut

Hoping after Friday we get cool and dry. Looks like it anyway.

Looks like alot of disparity among the op runs. GEM/GFS say we drench....Euro/ICON say southern slider. With SER in its waning stages, and frontal boundary on the doorstep, my gut says while we get a "good" rainer, the southern slider solutions like the Euro depict would hold more water . See what i did there? Any slower northward movement of TS Michael would further support my thinking as well. If frontal boundary lags, then more northern options could be in play. Thats what my guts saying......or is that the coffee.....?? Nut

Nice weekend in the northwoods. Sticky and all, but still a nice time. Colors have started north of WSPT and at cabin, I'd say its well underway. Looking forward to true fall this upcoming weekend. Its been long enough for us. SER appears to be going going.....and hopefully gone. Nut

and even further out.... GFS bias likely warms as we near....but it looks like the end of this God forsaken sticky sh!t is near. Headin to Cedar Run for my 25th anniversary this afternoon, so keep an eye on the fort while I'm gone. Dont let the warmies play w/ da models while I'm away :). Happy Weekend all!! Nut

relax young spritle.... Happy leaf peekin....

Nursing home. Not good.