pasnownut

I'm just about sick of this sh!t!! Whistler is getting snow. Lucky b@stards

Weekend summary... PSU -L (painful) Eagles - L (extra painful) weather - going back to +departures Had a great time in the woods though Saturday. Guess that'll have to do for now. Happy friggin monday.

Yeah I know. 10 isn't a big number, but it you'da said they were all good.....I'd be just fine w/ that #grasping Looking forward to your reads as we approach show time. Nut

Thanks...I think. Since your such a great stats guy.........can you pad them...a LOT!! Ouch, but that was my worry. Clouds wrung themselves out i guess. lol In truth, it would be nice to see how those 10 winters looked like regarding major indicies (Enso etc) in relation to how we look as a low end Modoki Nino seems to be appearing more likely. I'm hoping none of the above have a similar data set. Appreciate the feedback. Nut

not too shabby. 2 outta 3 aint bad

Thanks for checking in. Dare i ask how the winters were in those 8 "wetter" years? Nut

i havent followed that closely....i just like PSU. thats all.

#getabiggerboat

someday i'm gonna do it....

49-55 fixed

lol no biggie. Its nice to have stepped away from the furnace, so to me, I'm fine w/ late september weather. I have sweatpants on as i type, so thats a win so as it is...

Thought i'd take a peak at the maps and speaking of first flakes....will be in northern PA to celebrate my 25th anniversary at Cedar Run B&B with my lovely wife and looks like i get a little something extra from ol' mo nature. While this likely doesnt verify, its nice to see blue showing up close to home. Will trend warmer as we get closer, but thats fine. Steppin down is good by me.

x2 We'll just take some typical October fall w/ a couple dashes of indian summer and refreshing cool/cold fronts to help with the anticipation of the first flakes to show up inside of 240hrs on the maps. We can all enjoy fall festivities with a little (lot) of spiced cider, Octoberfest of your choice, or some good ol' bourbon to pass the time in search of the first flakes.

We are also past the point of needing to remind weather hobbyists/mets/pros whatevs.... that in every post you make that global warming is real.... No matter what your version of real is...... That makes you overbearing and more of an alarmist, which seriously diminished any credibility you try to establish..... just sayin

Well, it looks like we may have just ended this crazy stretch of heat and humidity, even though it may be temporary. Just looking forward to opening windows and enjoying the sun. Even if it does come back, climo helps to take the edge off the heat anyway. #glasshalffull Happy Hump day y'all! Nut

Looking like a nothin burger over this way. Was suspicious of it this morning and i think so far it may just be the right suspicion. Latest HRR 3k blend of total precip still looks like 2" for much of the susuqu valley but if the radar is any indication, i dont see that happening. Man...I'm starting to sound like another poster from the land of Yuengling......

3 cracks in 6 yr old driveway are now becoming craters...... Gotta fix this fall.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 655 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Florence will track northeast across Pennsylvania later today into early Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region Wednesday and Thursday. A dying cold front is likely to push south across Pennsylvania late Friday, then stall out just south of the state next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Regional radar loop at 09Z shows the shield of rain associated with the remnants of Florence approaching southwest Pa. Deep southerly flow of tropical air will overrun high pressure and pool of relatively stable air over central Pa, causing rain to spread northeast across the area, reaching even the northern tier by afternoon. As surface warm front lifts north, expect stratiform rain to transition to convective activity across southern Pa this afternoon. A low cape/high shear scenario appears to be setting up late today along the southern tier counties, where the threat of low-topped supercells and eve an isolated tornado exists. Main threat remains the possibility of flooding, due in part to the extremely wet antecedent conditions. Have issued a flash flood watch for nearly the entire forecast area, with a later begin time over the eastern counties based on latest HREFV2, which indicates a low probability of excessive rain until at least 00Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CAMS indicate steadiest stratiform rainfall will shift toward the NY border tonight, while scattered heavy downpours and possible tsra appear more likely elsewhere. WPC storm total qpf ranges from 1-2 inches over the forecast area, which runs close to FFG/FFH guidance from the marfc. However, given anomalous pwats and instability noted in the models, believe significantly higher spots amounts are likely, similar to the 2-4 inch max amounts in the HREFV2. Will also have to continue to monitor the severe weather threat tonight over the southern tier counties, where a combination of instability and shear south of surface low track could support supercells and even a possible tornado. Improving conditions will overspread the region from west to east Tuesday morning, as the surface low tracks passes east of the state. By early afternoon, the bulk of model guidance have pushed the low east of Pa. However, the back edge of the showers will likely lag by a few hours, due to passage of mid level shortwave. Brightening skies by afternoon should help push temperatures well into the 70s to near 80F.

alot of the local ponding that was largely evident last week, seems to have subsided around here. I'm sure we still are at high saturation levels, but think it fair to say that the dry weekend and sun yesterday has lessened the potential impacts to the Susky valley. i'd still be nervous if i lived in low lying areas, but my guess is 1-2" wouldnt do anything close to what we've seen. Beyond that we get what appears a much less dreary pattern with an early fall preview.

I like those tendencies....alot.

I/we get it. Like maytown said, just bustin ya. I guess the reality is that MOST of us are in the normal camp and share extremes on rare occasion. Just dont think you are as "jipped" as you sometimes let off. Hope your all healed up. Winters coming and you need to be ready to shovel

Was thinking the same thing. He's the best misser i know. Voyager should change his name to Copernicus. Onto the next miss........

x2

at least we don't have the oppressive heat. Just need to drop the other H. Looks like frontal boundary mid next week ushers in relief. Looking at the last couple model cycles, it looks like the MA forum put up the Hurricane defense shield as it retrogrades west right around us and then heads into NY. Pretty crazy. Nut

18z looks like it was watchin my hamster wheel for next week.