pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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Thats a great reminder regarding the pos anomalies that we would see north of us. Some will think were in trouble but in Jan/Feb its not as big a deal and as you said it will be likely "cold enough" for it to snow. While i think your right that it may take from mid Jan onwards, I'd think that by this time next week, we may be seeing 10 day maps that get things looking more interesting. Its no shutout pattern, so for me, thats a win in and of itself. Transient is fine.
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Seeing that ISO is still holding the line, is great and lends credence to our SSW convo that some have been chatting about. Looking like we should see the effects as we head towards the New Year, and per his read, he things the SE ridge is being overmodeled. Even if we get zonal pattern, it surely isnt a horrible base state to have something NS drop in to pay a visit. Thats how i see it anyway.
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Very true. We've seemingly got the STJ working, just need the canooks to get their sh!t together and we'll be doing just fine. Overnights have taken a slightly more workable look in the way out there range. Seeing that cold dumping into the west just hurts when we finally have all players showing up. Just need them to play nice and it could be a really nice time here in the east.
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I know what he’s talking about but mid Jan is no time to be discussing “wasted snow”. That’s all. Jack rabbit in a date. I like that one. Lol
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that IS a rather bold statement, and one I'm not sure why you are saying..... I cant believe your suggesting the sun angle talk in mid december...thats like Weenie Of The Year material right there.
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@Bob Chill thx Bob. Anxious to see how this SSW evolves, and agree that it has been a rarity to see it work into guidance. Just sounds like this one might be the real deal. fwiw, like you, psu and others, I'm nowhere near throwin any towels in, but last week of dec looks not so festive, and as you've been touting. Not a "good" call, but a nice one by you. I thought i saw enough to find a way out, and guess I was blinded by the Christmas spirit (or spirits...or something). Long ago we knew December was a bonus month for any white gold, so I'll just chase the pill w/ some spiked eggnog, and like i suggested in the Cent pa thread, I think in a week (or so), we'll be back to better looks on guidance.
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As I'm looking for the silver lining, I've always been intrigued by the SSW, and its affects, I'm wondering if the current episode (that seems to have legs) might be able to help to get us back to a more favorable look, or further enhance the effects of the Nino, but my fear is that it might take till late Jan, as i've read that its typically a 30ish day lag time for downwelling to occur at levels we want to look at. IF not a full blown SSW, my wonder is that even if its just a peturbation, could that be enough to dislodge the cold and get this party started sooner than later. Thoughts?
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yeah, was just reminding myself that a few weeks back back half of December was looking warm, and that surely seems to be gaining traction. Even though we recently were teased w/ better LR looks, that surely has eroded, so hopefully once to Christmas, we can start seeing 500mb maps start to match up in the extended. Hate to say it, but Bob sniffed this rat out. Didn't want to believe him, but it is what it is. Looking like a good call. The optimist in me says this week isnt horrid, so lets get through it and see where we go from there. (By horrid, i mean no 70's). Yes we may likely be on the wrong side of storms, but while i want snow....i HATE anomalous warmth around the holidays.
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looks to me like NE/poconos is best spots to see the snow from tomorrows event. Meso's like that region most, but some upslope will also be seen back in the laurels/cent mountains at elevation. I hope it happens for those that can get it, because things have turned rather scroogish beyond next week. Lets just say that 500MB maps have colors in all the wrong places. Too far out to get worried, but I'm starting to worry.
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were in good hands now. Bring it home bud. 1 Santa out....
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the way i look at it, when things "looked" great.....we got jack. So now that things look boring/mundane, lets look for something and see where we go. Pattern isn't ripe for snow, but its not a shut the shades deal either. More of a see/saw.....yee/haw kinda deal till we near Christmas. Gut says that a week from now, we may be sending the dogs out to track. Sure hope so. IF...big if....we can get a zonal/split flow kinda deal like some OP/Ens guidance has hinted at, it could be fun as we are approaching peak snow climo, so its "easier" for it to snow round these here parts. Headed on the road to play santa to clients, so someone find something for us to gaze at today. Nut
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my work is done................ and your soooo easy.
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Since there's not much to talk about, I'll just throw this out there to give the Christmas miracle a little hope.... Just use your imagination....and a little meteo madness that most of us supposedly come here for....and draw your own conclusions. Purely for fun
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Was just going to respond until i read a little further below and saw this. Yeah its more likely to help tweak the NS upper air pattern for what happens beyond as we approach Christmas. Been bouncing around on the ops/Ens and have moved back another step from the ledge. EPS bias just needed to have a little more time to adjust....I hope. Even the Op runs way out are starting to take the look of overrunning. Just fine by me. Reasonable progression and NO TORCH FOR CHRISTMAS. Win win for me. Verbatim, the 6z GFS isnt far from stuffing stockings w/ snow for N/W locals.
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I get it, but in the upcoming pattern, we dont need a big storm popping up for days and days to back into something. For referenece....how'd the last storm work out for us. Footballs were being spiked by some way way out there (i say that tongue n cheek), but in reality we all got sucked in a bit. Sneaky possible surprise should be the theme for the lead up to Christmas. Thats all i'm saying.
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Couldn't agree more.
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yeah, look at the GEFS if you need a tug away from the ledge. Definately not a horrible look. Split stream overrunning kinda deal. Just fine by me
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While there is nothing major to talk about for the next week, at least it’s no toaster bath look either. Something can sneak up on us. I’ll take it...for now.
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@Scraff i'm a closet Caps fan as I live 30 min from Hershey and like the Bears. I'd drink this in a heartbeat. Get up here to Hershey and get them to push this stuff. I'm mean good luck trying, but it might be worth it. I see lots of Caps jerseys at the Bears games (was there last week).
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lol. I may have made progress on the belly and the grey a bit, but I've got a lot of work to do. Mind you this was merely for fun, and to just cast a bit of "its gonna be ok" into the warmish period coming up, as it looks to be transient and a "no need for toasters" kinda warmup. You guys talking about 2015 made me start to twitch/tick all over again. Hope i never relive a Christmas like that in PA. It's just not right.
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No shorts.....please. Breaking all the rules and posting an op run for xmas eve to keep hope alive. The phrase "right where we want it" comes to mind, but after last weekend, NC stole that one from us. No matter....I'm dreamin.....
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It depends on the “tilt”, curve or sharpness of the trough. You want to be above or left of the trough arm as it comes up the coast. Position is critical
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Well....... I’ll be d@mned.
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#beggars...............
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We've started off rather quickly, so a relax to a reload is fine. better now than early Jan when peak climo would be "wasted". Looks like AN but no sustained torch. No biggie.
