pasnownut

Well i'm having a bad day..... sorry. I'll laugh next time.....promise.

always.....how quickly you forget what happened 3 weeks ago.... Verbatim on the Ops its funny how we go from cutterville to suppression depression. So many ways to hurt onesself. Just playing around. Not worried about anything past 7 days on Op runs. Just having some fun.

yes and no. Base state we are in usually includes an active STJ, but as I know your learning, there's other influences, and too much blocking in the NA can lead to suppression in the east. West based nao gives room for STJ to stay close enough for storm track to be favorable. With split flow out west PJ and STJ split in west and converging in midwest can lead to overrunning events (my favorites), as they are a steady stream of moisture coming out of the SW and being ejected east to meet up w/ the PJ and steady long duration (typically light/mod) snow events can occur. That's another way we can win. Hope that makes sense.

That's good to see. It makes sense that the tellies are catching on to the new regime, and think that by this time next week, there might be a lot of weather porn being shared on the board. Just hoping the STJ stays active and close by once we get into the New Year. That's been in the back of my mind for the last few days.

Yeah....its a shame we have to go into hush mode, when in reality we are all rooting on the same thing for everyone. We cannot change where we live, and if you don't like it, they sell homes every day. I know its not that easy, but as Mappy and others have stated, its just snow. I love it more than any i know, but its not worth the worry, vitrol (when things don't pan out). Since were sharing ages, and experiences. I'v been a snow weenie, lover of weather for around 20 years longer than some of the youngins above have been alive. I've been at this a long time and have seen it all. Its really a fun passion....but its weather and I've learned that the outcome is always up in the air...

Move that south a bit and you get forum wide approval. This makes the next week even more tollerable for many as pattern shift will be underway and tracking mode will likely start to show threats inside 240.

Fair point. It is exciting to see things starting to look good...Maybe really good.

It’s just another piece of the meteorological pie,but when it occurs, it can have a lot of influence...arguably more than other indictes that we look for. Hence the “weight” of the discussion. I didn’t think anyone was over the top with it fwiw. Not that my opinion matters. Just fascinating to me and as it affects long range I thought this was the place to discuss. Unfortunately it’s a rarity, and largely not discussed by most (and part of that is because many no little about it (me included). If you think about it...NAO is a rarity of sorts. We chat all the time bout it. Just my .02

Correct.

@frd thanks for sharing. Very informative and helpful in understanding this SSW voodo. Sounds like disruption is better for us. Disrupt away then.

WTF? I'm not playing along.....go back to your corner and commence kickin stones. Put safety glasses on though cause your vision already seems suspect.

Agreed. Not saying its good verbatim, but to @psuhoffman's point, pattern evolution may be rushed, and we can both agree that while theres no arctic express as depicted, PNA looks to be headed + and we lost the stupid red flame ball in the midwest. It's not perty, but its progress. edit.....see psu's post above. He types w/ all 10....I type w/ 2...

76........... but whos counting

Good to hear. Wondering when the "official" SSW alarm will be (or was) sounded, cause then we can factor it into when it shows up on the models. Thinking the end of the LR Ens might be a reflection?? 30ish days is lag time from my limited knowledge. Anyone have thoughts or knowledge and want to hedge a guess?

384 op run and your cancelling? Come on Debbie. Sounds like Maestro bit you. At least show an ensemble. Your better than this...and you know it

uncontrollable twitches and ticks commence as xmas 2015 flashes into noggin.......

Congrats. Great accomplishment. Now you’ll have more time in here?

Saw a 3D graphic the other day animating the SSW. I want to revisit if I can find it as it would likely show the downwelling and likely influence at levels we want to see it at.

Promise??

That’s what we wanna hear. Looking forward to seeing how this affects us. #peturbed

They’d make great roommates

It’s been a long time coming. Looking forward to the board getting busy and searching for storms. If the pattern could settle into an overrinning one with -nao and active split flow with STJ for a while I’d be just giddy. Then pound is with some millers. I like all of em. Right Sauss??

I’m tellin ya.

Wow. That is crazy. Wheres my boat

You’ll be back when the 18zs show a cutter. Lol