pasnownut

Hoping you are east enough to have enough CAD to pull it off. Thats why i've been hoping for a slightly weaker storm, as while we lose qpf...we also lose warm punch. Personally id take a cooler column w/ less qpf, than hoping rates overcome wet bulb (as Mag) suggested. Further east we may be deep enough for that to happen for a time, but eventually...we likely lose it.

Overruning type events tend to be a little ahead of models sometimes, so we'll take any advection snows we can get. I'm really hoping the gap between advection and the real deal narrows overnight for same reason, anything we can get before we lose the column keeps the chance at snow on the ground for a handful of days alive.

If...if that first batch is correctly modeled and we lose it to evap and low DPs....and the mids cook quickly.....well that’s the missle to the bow.

and full disclosure, while hugging the crap out of above, I think OTG totals are generally divisble by 2 as sleet and ZR will keep totals knocked down. Now time to pay attention to Mesos and hone in on 700 and below levels to see how they are initializing vs actual. Thats gonna pave the path to frozen. Also watch for CAD structure east of mtns and below MD line as we near go time. If my hunch is right you see a southern push to critical layers which is my path to victory. CAD erodes too quickly.....well you know how that goes. Will my battleship cruise into port with bands playin.....or get sunk from SS Submarine?

cause I'm a bonehead that tried to do it sitting in a parking lot.... better?? Looks like Horst hijacked the USS GooFuS special intel maps for his forecast

All aboard.......

The reasons you suggest is precisely why I watch the thermal boundaries. “Follow them and find your frozen” if you get my drift. While your CAD rule likely wins many bets....scenarios like this can/may be the exception with LP cutting so far W. This becomes a hybrid overrunning kinda scenario in my mind and warm punch often underperforms. guess we’ll know soon enough. Regardless I’m going to enjoy snow on the ground for a few days.

I was wondering if you were looking for cover or on the front lines with me. lol

Sign me up. Reasonable and similar in distribution to mesos and gfs.

I never said it was a comfy coalition..... Truth told I think 18 or 0z will trim back on GFS and we hope n pray for CAD to do its dirty work for every hour we can (LSV crew)

Yavulll weenie rule #1 says look at ALL models and hug the sh!t outta the one that gives you the most snow. yo no likey da Ikon right now. (my Spanglish)

Not sure I’m totally buying the banded structure of first overrunning precip. ti my eyes decent lift in the dead zone says it should squeeze something out

GFS initialized at 1046

I’ve been thinking This for a couple days as the Cad (as often is the case) is only showing up now. good luck.

Parsing over nooners. Looks like North America coalition vs the Germans. let's see what the Europeans have to say in a bit.

And after seeing 12 GFS I’ve decided to name my ship the USS GooFuS..... It’s a thermal defense destroyer. client meetings n travel today so bring it home gang.

If i drew it.....it'd be facing the other direction

and now you know why i asked for a banter thread......

and for other reference to see what the consensus is, here is GFS and one of the WRF nest at same timestamp. Saturday stays near or at freezing for LSV/CTP locals. I'd think a blended range to the mid 30s happens for a couple/few hours before frontal passage and we drop back for Sunday.

Going w/ 12k for 2m temps here is the "warmest" panel I could find for you. Verbatim, many in eastern 1/2 of state struggle to get to freezing. CAD is starting to show nicely in thermal profiles.

Looking over hi res/mesos from overnight still appears to be on track w/ my gut from a couple days ago. If one looks at WRF suite you'll see a bit more focus on front end loving before we taint. Once we taint, it appears to be a small window (speaking relative to LSV locals) for that to happen before column cools (which most precip is done by then so snizzle/flurries at the end. I've been riding this frozen ship for a couple days and will take the wheel wherever it goes. This is the reason I'm here, and as Flathead suggested, it is a place to share ideas and gain insight. I've got broad enough shoulders and a firm base to support them, so if I fail....i can take it. Trainer and i said 2-4 call from a few days back and think its a good call. NC mountains look to be winners w/ best go at 6". TGIFF gang.

That’s been my take from a couple days ago. We have a thin warm nose we are seeing in models and rates coupled with antecedent cold can help to keep this more frozen and less wet. I’ve never bought into the big snow totals (and still don’t after peeking g at 0z NAM.), but this has the look of a sleet fest for some of us. still keeping my win bar at 2-3” with sleet to be the icing on my snow cake.

Well stated.

yeah, york cashed in while nearby locals....notsomuch we got around 2.5 - 3" in northern lanco sorry flathead, canderson is correct

ok.....who put the wheel lock on TT website. We stuck