nrgjeff

Tis the High Plains and Northern Plains Season. Happy June-ing! Central Plains does appear shut down. Panhandle could still pull magic through mid-June iff a southern stream wave at the same time a boundary wanders south. So, let's talk June-ing. Wed-Fri this week I see chances in and adjacent to Wyoming. Don't let my one state influence your target, but it's a start. Colorado could be involved, all the way up to Montana. Per SPC Thursday, I'd say Wed & Fri will also have moderate flow and adequate moisture in and around Wyoming. Remember 60 Td is great up there. Despite Marginal/Slight, geographic features can help out. Examples are the Big Horns, Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge, Palmer Divide, plus others. No shame checking Google Maps terrain for ideas. Find a boundary near a geographic feature and go for it! Late week and/or early next week may be a true system for the Dakotas and Minn. I've little to add; models should handle a synoptic system. Then next week the MT/WY/CO deal may set up again. Boundaries left from the weekend could help.

Memphis could get rocked by a nice bow echo around 00Z today. That would be fun from the roof of a Beale St. bar while buzzing. Alas, I made the silly decision to sit out a weekend chase late in a desperate season. Memphis buddy is going. Missouri is worth it from MEM but not CHA. Best of luck to him! Guess that leave me wishing for more tropical trouble. Tropical storm is a nice compromise to not tear up the coast too bad, but really a hurricane is required to keep the 850/925 mb winds robust enough to spin up tornadoes in the bands. Also would prefer remnants moving slightly east, as opposed to backing away from the potential storm cell inflow. I could let 2017 severe season go because we had the Eclipse coming. 2018 is a much harder pill to swallow; so, I will selfishly wish for hurricanes. It's not like we can control it anyway.

Yes that was the band of CHA precip. I saw the BNA metro got nice bands too. Today/Thursday might feature some hailers in Kentucky. Just enough wind fields justify 2% TOR and maybe just maybe a small 5% West Kentucky. Friday the Marginal could turn to Slight if we can get a little better wind fields over the Tennessee Valley. Saturday has more questions than answers. Looks like a roaring MCS will slice through Missouri. Warm front should be in Illinois. The IL WF will be what's left of their CF Friday. I love retreating boundaries (that never scoured out dews south of them). Saturday problems include jungle terrain and possible huge MCC/bow. If evidence increases for discrete Saturday, I might have to chase.. I mean visit my buddy in Memphis. Worst case bust scenario: Beale St. Not bad for 2018, lol!

I am still holding in Tenn. Almost went to the Plains for early this week; and, apparently DDC is going to DDC when it comes to tornadoes. WY/CO also did their late May thing. Today/Wednesday a nice cell or two starting near where CO/KS/OK meet would not surprise me - but late. 700 mb is warm, but not too hot. Heights are rising this morning, but are forecast to fall again this afternoon with a short-wave. Boundary sits there. Low level wind fields should improve this afternoon. Thursday looks like the big shift North. Friday could be a nice event, but risk is mainly CF/WF if DL stays capped. Both days SPC forecasts looks reasonable to me. Chasecation thoughts: If one has two weeks and must schedule ahead, probably go last two weeks of May, or last week of May and first week of June. I think one week is not enough if one has to schedule ahead. While any of those weeks should have tornadoes, who sees every tornado? A good chaser bats about .333 so one needs more than a couple chances. One fixed week might not be enough. Best deal is a floating time-off agreement at work/home and go when a quality trough is forecast. Then one can pick a week with 3-4 chances. If not, then the two weeks fixed should offer 3-4 chances total even with poor troughs. Goal is 3-4 chances on the trip. Batting .333 odds improve greatly with 3-4 chances vs 1-2.

Monday I busted in South Georgia. Tuesday the best storm came right over my house by about 02Z Wed. We had nice lightning and thunder with torrential rain. Too bad no hail in tropical precip. Thursday nice mid-level winds and short-wave are forecast. Regrettably 850/925 mb is terribly veered. I know Dixie can give a little compared to the Plains, but this is a deal killer. 2018, sigh. Actually Kentucky should get severe, but probably wind/hail.

If a subtropical system can gin up 850/925 mb winds the Region would have a better chance of actual severe early next week. Odds may be higher Deep South. May 2018 is strange...

Indeed the weeklies choked horribly for May 18-25. Trouble is those Gulf lows are probably too small to resolve for weekly products. West trough was there, but so were 2 Gulf lows. ERTAF stayed skeptical which is a huge win for them deviating from the weekly charts. UPDATE: ECWMF has improving wind fields next week, but still moisture questions. Exactly two weeks ago my hopes were up for the following week, but we punted on moisture concerns. Managing expectations this time around, but cautiously hopeful in later May climo.

Atmospheric response trending ahead of SSTs adds some confidence in the El Nino story for this winter. Main Weather Forecasting forum has a detailed debate, and I lean toward the El Nino solution. Subsurface is warmest Modoki region, but right now that detail is still in my wish-cast category. Again, I do think some kind of El Nino is quite possible.

Middle of this week looks like a doable 3-4 day stretch in the Northern Plains. Tue/Wed feature a LLJ somewhat backed approaching/over the region. Moisture may be JIT on Tuesday but should be there Wednesday. Note that 65F dews is enough up there. I will not attempt specific targets due to mesoscale details, but generally Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska and the Dakotas. Late this week SPC even mentions a short-wave for the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin Thu/Fri. Nebraska and Iowa could be involved. Best forcing looks north, but boundaries may sag south still with just enough flow aloft. Is the season over in the heart of the Alley? Time will tell, but it looks like the North is perking up even if it's a little early compared to climo.

ECMWF and its parallel are finally starting to slow down for Saturday. GFS about to score a coup? NAM also slowed down more at 06Z. Storm mode is still in question with an ongoing MCS that is not forecast to die in the morning. However, in contrast to Friday, dewpoints will be there Saturday. Northeast Kansas is good chasing terrain. NW Missouri is even OK if it crosses the River, but be mindful of crossing well in advance. Plan ahead for both safety reasons and not losing the storm.

One should include reasoning regarding why one agrees or disagrees with data.

On the plus side 2013 and 2016 were good chasing. We don't need high tornado counts. We need tight clusters, but I think everyone knows that. Just a rosy glasses reminder. This week I see the following targets. Thursday DCVZ would be my choice. Action is forecast farther north, but I'll take some geography to increase success rate. Friday could be the first true DL event of the season; or, it could turn into a cluster fast on sub-68 dewpoints. Saturday looks a little bit like Monday in Kansas (OFB); or, CF/DL farther south but with moisture risks. Saturday is still way up in the air 5 days out. Next week hints of a midweek shortwave are noted. Attm it looks like slightly less than Fri/Sat but it's also a week out. Could improve or fall apart but something to watch. Memorial Day weekend looks awful on the GFS ensembles; however, Euro/Cad have the door open for another trough. GFS is trying to latch onto some bearish Pacific forcing, but a slower evolution would favor the Euro/Cad. Time will tell. Nothing looks spectacular, but at least late May chances are there.

While it appears May will lack a big outbreak, I see at least two chase sequences in the next 10 days. Thu-Sat could go from the Front Range to KCMO, with Friday the best day in between. Middle of next week evidence is increasing for another meandering short-wave. It might have better moisture without this Tenn. Valley bowling ball. Hudson Bay low, which clearly hostile, I think is less of a factor than this asinine bowling ball. ERTAF is depressing, but even BA in late May is not a deal killer if one has time and freedom to sniff out mesoscale features. SPC is clearly frustrated, a rare if subtle show of emotion. Those mets are there because the love severe weather. SPC mets are disgusted with this pattern too. On the other hand, when they say "relative to late May" I think they leave the door open for severe. I'm also slightly surprised they go Potential.. instead of Predictability... Enough of the psychology, we still have WSW flow over the Plains. Moisture is a question later this week, but I can deal with JIT (just-in-time moisture) in late May relative to before May 15. Middle of next week agreement on a short-wave is there. Day 10 details can/will change. Moisture may be JIT again, but looks slightly better. Also climo. No outbreaks, but I think 3-5 chase days will happen in the next 10. Might just be 5%, but doable. From The Martian: Might have to science the sh!t out of this!

Baseball meteaphor is great. The 6-10 day is no longer wretched, and a come-back is possible. However mesoscale features must come together, which will be 12-36 hour forecasts. The 11-15 is not a total loss. Looks ridgy, but another trough with a couple short-waves might attempt. If heights do remain AN it will be a challenge. Manufacture runs, small ball, bunt 2%/5% (TOR) strong, and the season may still feature some fun.

Ensembles have quieted down a bit. Choices ae force it in the next 10 days with a trough out West, but troubles in the East; or, wait for more subtle action toward Memorial Day into early June. At least last year we had the Total Eclipse to save a brutal chase year. Agree though, long range can and will probably change.

Overnight deterministic NWP kind of killed the mood. However, Ensembles and Weeklies still look good. Pushing back a weather pattern that eventually happens is not uncommon. Looking under the hood of both Ensembles and Weeklies, clusters show some excellent 5-day periods - even better than the means. Timing is slightly different on those clusters though. Takeaway is a flexible chase vacation is in great shape. Of course set dates may cause sweating. Finally, Indian Ocean convection is waking up which is a chaser friendly MJO signal. Still need to get rid of that awful Central Pac. convection though. I think it is on the down trend, but it ebbs and flows. IO also ebbs/flows, but it is making higher highs and encroaching on Indonesia (good). I use Kochi U. Japan http://weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/index-e.html to check out those regions.

You are golden for a few to several days starting May 18. Possible this coming Sun-Tue has a couple meso-scale accidents, but the midweek flow goes weak; so, I would not consider Sun-Tue a day(s) before the day set-up. Starting May 18 looks great! Looking ahead the 6-15 day ensemble charts are about as good as one could ask for in late May. 11-15 day always carries a bigger change risk; however, I'm fairly confident in another trough after the May 19 weekend trough. If both troughs offer 2-4 chase days, that's 4-8 chase days in the 10 day period. Odds (even batting .333) favor great chasing success!

Euro / ECMWF Monthlies look like that all summer. From the June 500 mb pattern I infer fronts (and hopefully late-season severe). July-August looks more like coming in underneath from the Gulf/Southeast Coast. Well, August 500 could be either but climo says underneath. Desert Southwest monsoon is also forecast robust. Relevance here is if easterly waves are juicy too. If things look the same by Memorial Day maybe I will write more in the Seasonal thread. Cheers!

Modoki would be nice for winter enthusiasts. Models seem to warm up Nino 1 and 2 (less Modoki). We'll see; 1-2 are cold right now. Eight months out, hope is a legit forecast. We'll go Modoki El Nino.

Starting with the ECMWF weeklies yesterday, and through overnight modeling, the forecast has become noticeably more friendly to chasing interests. I'm almost giddy, but pinch myself because it is still the 6-15 day forecast. Weeks 2-3 could be good too if one believes the CFS weeklies. Euro weeklies back off; but, CFS has been better at sniffing out subtle ebbs and flows. Plus, you know, week 2-3 climo. Focus on the 6-15 day forecast, the following signals are noted. That awful cut-off low in the East Pac is starting to lift out. Still looking for central Pac convection to chill out. Please make way for a new Kelvin wave out of the IO, and favorable MJO. -AAM is forecast to hold on a little while longer. Some models flip to +AAM by week 3 which is not great; however, that late May climo... Next week timing has been all over the place. 24 hours ago I was thinking late week. Now both the GFS/Euro have storms going most days early week on the returning front (left over from Mother's Day) with a dry line too. Moderate SW flow over a boundary with CAPE, boy I wish that was not week out modelling. Verbatim things calm down May 19-ish but very subject to change. Reload May 21-ish? At any rate, it looks like the next 2-3 weeks are friendly to chase concerns. This weekend could still yield chase events; but, I try to wait until after Mother's Day for family. Good luck to all!

Next week looks more interesting, although forecast wind fields are currently pathetic. Might have a stationary boundary nearby with plenty of CAPE. Later into the season high CAPE can get things going, just the opposite of early season shear. If wind fields could strengthen just a bit, next week would be interesting. Heat ridge nearby makes winds a challenge. One or two days that go from the Plains all the way over here would not shock me. Tis the season in late May.

Weeklies are starting to go that direction, a system digging into our region around mid-May. CFS hints; Euro due at 22:15Z. Whether wind shear and stability line up is a whole other set of questions. On the surface that's exciting news close to home, but it's a mess in the Plains. Short-term, Wednesday Illinois might have enough turning with height if morning storms leave and outflow and instability can return. Probably be messy though. Plus the Marginal into our neck of the woods is the hilly lush jungle of dueling banjos. Flat Delta looks too far west.

I pretty much agree with everything Quincy has above; however, I might not bite yet. Mother's Day chasing requires a particularly good setup to justify the loss of political capital at home. Looking toward May 16-18 the GFS just tried to resurrect the slow train wreck unfolding on Euro and Cad Ensembles. Trouble is WNW flow which would be OK in June but we're not quite there yet. Ensembles are a little more friendly toward May 21 but that is hour 360. MJO might finally lumber into a good phase toward Memorial Day, but that train keeps getting delayed. Despite early season troubles, I feel like it is OK to be picky. At the same time it might go nuts sooner.

My money is always on the Euro, but you know that. GFS can and does occasionally score coups though. 12Z Sunday GFS dropped all the wind shear but it could come back. Also I do not do indices that far out. Just looking at mandatory level charts (850/700/500/250). Turning is still there, considering WNW at 500 the SSW 850 would work. However speeds are totally AWOL. Still a few days out and CAPE will be there. We'll hope! PS. not trying to debate. I'm just watching like a hawk because my interests farther west keep getting delayed. Sigh... If I'm wrong, we can go chasing, Quincy too, and I'll pay all fuel.

I want to be bullish, but we can't even muster a Maginal today May 5. NWP verbatin wind fields are a mess Friday; but, it is May! If all else fails, Go Preds!