nrgjeff

Confidence is greater on El Nino after data the last couple weeks. I've been around but quite busy at work and home with activities. Also American Wx fell off my routine when it crashed for a few days. El Nino could still turn out basin wide, but odds slightly favor Modoki.

CFS is also on fire all winter. Both models may be influenced by generally warm oceans over the entire Northern Hemisphere. Perhaps the late bloom of El Nino will behave more like weak Nino; and, get us some winter back half per ECMWF.

Too bad the TNI may be completely backwards for severe next spring.

Looking back through the 2000s when the surface and below-surface cross-sections look like now, odds are pretty good for the weak/moderate El Nino. Right on the cusp of the two would be great! (Office Space meme) Few folks are haunted by the ghosts of last year. This year is quite different. LY had started to crater by August. Consensus in the energy world is weak/mdt El Nino. It might fade mid-winter but does not break the deal. They are supposed to peak in late fall early winter; hence, the name. Literally it is the Christmas Child, El Nino in Spanish.

Starting Monday it looks cooler again, perhaps for most of next week with scattered thundershowers. Tuesday is currently the day models/NWP highlights for heavier storms in the Valley, but it has shifted around. 36 hours ago NWP favored Monday. At any rate a synoptic system with quality upper level wind fields is forecast early next week for the Valley. Looks mainly eastern half of our region perhaps Tuesday. GFS has upper level wind speed but mostly same direction. Euro has more turning upstairs, upper system a bit more open. If it rains the day before, chance of an outflow boundary increases. If timing changes it could be Mid Atlantic (per NWP 36 hours ago). Finally we'll see if the wind field forecast holds up. Most days with thundershowers should not be severe. Over five days we should be able to absorb that QPF without major flooding concern, at least in Tenn. However the devil is in the local details. Local flash flooding is always possible with thunderstorms. Also with sustained southeast flow, Georgia and up the Blue Ridge could have a lot more precip.

Friday night set up east of the highest SPC probabilities. Believe the main problem was a warmer layer (cap) for Middle Tenn. Meanwhile a boundary set up from Kentucky to North Georgia. It started out in Middle Tenn. but was capped. Despite lower overall parameters east, the low levels closed the deal. Boundary enhanced low level shear. It got real near Spring City for a bit. Neighbors and I were watching the distant lightning. Watching the lightning reminded me of waiting for nocturnal storms back in the Plains. However we were concerned for the people up in the tornado warning.

I am sitting out today, mainly due to terrain. Iowa tornadoes did pique my interest but they had greater low level turning. Iowa tornadoes is all or nothing like snow in Dixie, lol.. Today in TN/KY deep layer shear is downright robust for July. CAPE should achieve advertised levels. My issue is the lowest level shear. Even adjusted for a northwest flow event I don't like the lowest 100 mb or so. From 850 mb up turning is good. However from 850 mb down speed is meh. I know it's July. Still I like the lowest levels to close the deal for tornadoes. It requires a quality boundary. Attm (1643Z surface chart) winds do not kink well along the boundary near the TN/KY border. We'll see how things go. Looks like plenty of straight line wind and even large hail for severe weather fans. OHX is rightfully hitting the straight winds in their comm. Can't take tornadoes off the table in the MDT and immediate surrounding ENH area (not all of it). Note max tornado probabilities are ENH. The other modes of severe wx could achieve MDT. If the terrain were better, today might be worth a try in West Kentucky and adjacent parts of Tenn. The meteorology looks like few and brief tornadoes, easily missed in poor terrain. Appears the wind and hail will be the primary issues.

Expanding the ENH and introducing hatched hail both seem reasonable. OHX afternoon discussion reads ever so slightly more interested in tornadoes; however, they are rightfully mainly focused on straight line winds. My previous post was after 12Z CAMs, so I have little to add there. Interesting the 850/925 mb winds appear a little better in northern Kentucky. However the stronger 500/200 mb winds are down over Tenn. Could we have more than one or two good cells and spread out? Gee that would be something unusual in 2018! I'm starting to actually think about this northwest flow event. Still doubt I'll chase due to awful terrain. I mean in 2018 something has to go wrong.

I do like it! Storm mode remains a question for me. About 1/3 CAMs still produce a line in the late afternoon. Most have one in the morning, which is fine if it lays down outflow. My question is the afternoon round. ARW (research version of WRF) just put out a junk scenario and I hope it is an outlier. At any rate the chance of afternoon storms quickly going into a squall line is real. All the shear and turning with height could just translate into a well-maintained straight line wind producing squall line. THEE checklist probably won't be met, not quite enough WAA. However a shortwave in northwest flow with lots of heat humidity and CAPE could get some damaging winds going. NAM version of the WRF mostly favors supercells. 06Z was a little messy but 00/12Z are supercells in the afternoon. I am still skeptical of the lowest levels 0-1km. Now the 0-3km SRH is robust for July (but average spring system). The 0-1km needs something more. How about a boundary? Morning convection would need to produce that just-right outflow boundary. Can't have a cool pool undercutting, a risk without vigorous inflow. If rain gets off the said boundary, it can cook for a few hours in the afternoon. NAM has a hard right mover on the boundary in Middle Tenn. I would not take that location seriously at 36 hours. Only the conceptual model is worth noting. If a lone supercell establishes on a cooking boundary (no other rain) then the large hail scenario gets more likely, perhaps even rotation. For the latter, I think a little more ambient 0-1km SRH is needed even if a boundary is present. Due to forecast overnight and morning convection the location is actually still up in the air. I like the Slight-Enhanced for Kentucky and Tenn. Ohio Valley also has a triple point forecast but that is another regional forum area.

Wow that's some bullish language from OHX. Keep in mind it is an internal discussion; and, they should go over all the possible solutions. Other solutions include the classic Dixie crap out scud nation. Getting serious, I like a slight risk for part of the region. Wind fields certainly support it. I believe the high-res NAM is too amped with SRH. Might be locally higher on a boundary; but, the other NAM is less bullish overall. Either way CAPE will be high and storms will tap into those wind fields. While maybe not enough turning for tornadoes*, it is enough veering with height to promote organized severe storms. * Hard right mover on a boundary could still surprise. Yeah maybe look on the Plateau. I believe low level wind fields (its ground level) are stronger up there for two reasons.. higher elevation, and broad Bernoulli effect as mesoscale winds flow over the Plateau. Friday could offer a nice break from the Good Morning Vietnam forecast. Like the June 20-ish week we should start a few days with organized thunderstorms. Slight could also shift toward the Mid-South if the boundary sinks.

Impressive video @*Flash* from June 26. Takes me back to the Plains with a disco strobe anvil topped thunderhead. Hopefully we can do it in the Valley (and Midsouth) later this week and over the weekend. Modest flow is still forecast over that period, I'll say Friday through Monday. Turning with height is meager but the speed is pretty good for this time of year. SPC does not sound too impressed, but at least we get the marginal text mention. Should be enough for organized storms, vs just pop-up poop-out. All I'm asking for is a little straight wind, good shelfies, and lightning shows. You know, this summer still feels a little empty without the 2017 eclipse anticipation.

June 28 evening was my lightning show of record for 2018. In fact it's the best I have seen here in several years. We had frequent lighting for nearly an hour with nearly constant rumbling of thunder. On two occasions continuous lighting went for a few minutes. Separately, a few booms of thunder shock the house. Being at night of course helped with the light show. We had stronger storms a few days before that. June 28 was more about the lighting and thunder. Hopefully modest flow aloft in a few days will bring more fun. Real storms please!

Friday and Saturday should offer at least something to watch. I would put it in the category of the June 21-28 weather with modest upper level flow and some severe wx reports. ECMWF continues to show greater than seasonable upper level flow. It veers with height, but the low levels are far from backed to start. Looks like a straight line wind pattern. A hard right mover on a boundary (SSE motion) could spit out hail too. 06Z GFS trends toward the ECMWF with a more open wave, as opposed to broad but closed off, which creates a little more veering with height on the GFS. Wind direction at low levels does not favor rotation. However veering with height upstairs still supports the chance of severe wx mainly in the form of straight winds. We'll see if it holds.

Alex, I'll take the somewhat uncommon (but not rare) -PDO and El Nino for $400. What is, blowtorch? Well, maybe get some severe weather. Just kidding! We do not know how the PDO will work out. Confidence is building on the El Nino since we are in summer well past the spring model choke barrier.

Learned Helplessness is the psychological theory. We are so used to it going to crap 36 hours out nobody even tries to help themselves to a chase. Sunday is still 60 hours out, but maintains good wind profiles and moisture. It will be so unstable that a big old MCC with lots of straight line wind is likely by night. However one has to like chances of a couple tornadoes along boundary intersections afternoon/eve. Also need the LLJ to hold up on NWP, rather than show weaker about 36 hours out. Storms creating their own environment is nice, but I'd rather see the LLJ go on its own. I will be watching virtually from here.

This is 2018 so these crap set-ups are all we have, lol! Main outflow boundary OFB is down in the Deep South but away from upper level flow. Secondary OFB is along the TN/AL border into CHA/Ringgold as of Noon Eastern Time. Upper level winds are good, but the LLJ is totally and hopelessly veered off. Did anyone think we could actually get a good wind profile in 2018? I didn't think so either. Nonetheless, I have a personal rule about outflow boundaries with strong instability and under upper level flow - especially close to home on a Friday. Heck yeah I'm going out for a country drive today! Calling it a chase might be a joke, but I'm going out. This is 2018. If you don't live in Laramie WY this is the best it gets, lol!

SPC is still talking about nudging it north Friday. They have questions about ongoing storms which makes sense. However fewer midday storms would allow the outflow (from tonight) to surge up toward I-40. Then, more of Middle/East Tennessee could get involved. I'm guessing 2% tor for Dixie. SPC 5% is likely for CO/KS Friday. Both are perhaps a tornado or two. SPC talks up veering more out there (right) and they are hatched (for hail though). Hello Thursday! Tornado warnings for the MO/AR Delta are a little out of season. Will it repeat farther east Friday? Need correct short wave timing...

Now we're talking! Expect Slight Risks in our Region both Thursday and Friday. They are impossible to place attm. due to morning MCSs. However the said MCSs will deposit outflow boundaries OFBs. Looks like at least 40kt and possibly up to 60kt of shear which is great for June. Moderate shear over cooking OFBs is acceptable. Low levels appear quite veered though. Upper levels are also veered, so it is not a total loss. Slight directional shear is forecast, and one has to mentally rotate the whole thing clockwise about 90 degrees. Chasers need a hard right mover on an outflow boundary; otherwise, it is just straight winds and hail. Friday, due to lapse rates, the hail coring may be good. Thursday I am not able to be in the field. However the Mid-South should have a Slight. Friday I can get into the field if the set-up is right. MCS giveth and taketh. If it goes all MCC wash-out through midday the whole thing busts (so 2018). If a smaller MCS dissipates by late morning, it will deposit a (chaser) beneficial OFB, perhaps oriented NW to SE which would be ideal for a right mover. Probably won't happen. Probability of chase is low. Probability of MCC is pretty high in 2018, lol!

Amazing the SPC will not even give us Marginal. I would not expect more attm. However it should be Marginal. Starting to look unidirectional and modest, which might be good for a little wind. I'm not sure flow is strong enough for splitters and hailers. Too bad, spring has been incredibly boring.

MJO appears to have indeed reached a phase in which we might get a break in the heat. I'll gladly trade in the tropical outcome for the now forecast modest/moderate mid/upper flow across parts of the region late this week and over the weekend. Looks unidirectional, but should offer more than summer popcorn t-showers.

I favor the ECMWF over the GFS since the latter is contaminated by bogus tropical storms. My southern strategy fell apart. However yes, northern action is likely. Could be High Plains, Northern Plains, and/or Upper Midwest. Sloppy troughs probably prevent an outbreak; but, one has to expect local severe wx episodes in mid-June that region.

Insert the It's Happening guy. My opinion only.

Friend in Coppell TX (maybe Valley Ranch, Irving TX) had baseball size hail. SPC reports are legit. His photo is next to a peach about the size of a baseball if not a touch bigger. Wow just wow!

The 11-15 day forecast is a low confidence mess, but I want to look at two options in the few days leading up to and including Father's Day. Weeklies and Ensembles try to lower heights in the Plains. Many outcomes are possible, but I look at two below... First one involves a cutoff ULL roaming through Texas. It would be helpful for more rain in the Southern Plains. However it would be worthless for storm chasing. Second one could be more interesting. It has a little bit of STJ coming into the Southwest US and approaching NM and the TX Panhandle. LLJ responds most days. While we generally write off south of I-70 in mid-June (and rightfully so) the Caprock and above can still work. Wish I could be optimistic, but we know 2018 favors UULs. Otherwise, grab the passport and chase Canada, MT and the Dakotas.

Tis the High Plains and Northern Plains Season. Happy June-ing! Central Plains does appear shut down. Panhandle could still pull magic through mid-June iff a southern stream wave at the same time a boundary wanders south. So, let's talk June-ing. Wed-Fri this week I see chances in and adjacent to Wyoming. Don't let my one state influence your target, but it's a start. Colorado could be involved, all the way up to Montana. Per SPC Thursday, I'd say Wed & Fri will also have moderate flow and adequate moisture in and around Wyoming. Remember 60 Td is great up there. Despite Marginal/Slight, geographic features can help out. Examples are the Big Horns, Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge, Palmer Divide, plus others. No shame checking Google Maps terrain for ideas. Find a boundary near a geographic feature and go for it! Late week and/or early next week may be a true system for the Dakotas and Minn. I've little to add; models should handle a synoptic system. Then next week the MT/WY/CO deal may set up again. Boundaries left from the weekend could help.