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I recommend the short drive to Totality. It's not hard if 30 minutes or less. Remember 99% partial is like losing the National Championship by a point. Even if the forecast is a mess, a 30 minute drive is absolutely worth the try for a once in a lifetime awe inspiring phenomenon. Even at 99.9% no corona or prominences are visible. No 360 degree sunset. The shadow would be evident to your side, and you'd see shadow bands on a white surface for several minutes. Animals will react. However the difference between that and Totality is the difference between kissing and getting married (and you know). Take side roads, especially back. We did in 2017 from 45 minutes away. We were relaxing back in town over steak dinner, not caught in traffic. This applies local/close. Long distance travel will be a whip Monday afternoon/eve. We'll stay over another night there in 2024. Bottom line: If you can get to totality in 30 minutes, even with a crappy forecast, try it. Totality hype is one of the few things in our hobbies that's not over-hyped. In fact it's under-hyped. No words or photos capture the incredible everything(s) about Totality!

Some models show low, mid- and high cloud forecasts. Might depend on the website. Also when we get into range of high-resolution the cloud forecasts will be more precise (hopefully also accurate). Globals tend to smear out clouds. Below is downward solar flux. In contrast to clouds (all or nothing) the solar flux offers hints at cloud thickness and coverage. Still six days out so don't take it verbatim. Just sharing another tool to get another look at the situation. Red is good white is bad. Been a couple days due to severe wx at work. @RidingtimeI want to say prioritize the eclipse. Depends on how often you get back to see family. Note the Mid South is another option not too far from DFW - iff such a scenario holds. Ohio Valley has been less consistent. I'm looking fwd to hi-res models this weekend - both for precision and hopefully accuracy.

Tennessee could have beaten Purdue. All those 12-15 FT jumpers for 2 points were just awful shots with low expected value. And lots of time on the shot clock to boot. Yeah try a 3 if open. Otherwise go inside and get fouled. I'm pissed. Though a Kansas guy, I've gotten attached to Tennessee basketball. Still a great season for the Vols! Congratulations to Alabama first Final Four in school history! Fans just have fun and soak it in. UConn is a tough assignment. Players should not fear UConn. Fans manage expectations and enjoy it. That's easier said than done though. Wichita St. 2013.

I suppose April climo they gotta drop the 10% tor for Tuesday. NAM suite is quite linear and positive tilt. LLJ never restrengthens or backs late Tuesday. Now the Globals do so, and I figure CAMs like RRFS and HRRR do too; because, they go line of pearls. My gut says the NAM but it has a cool bias. That said the NAM can sniff out LLJ failures. So if you get anxious about severe, don't fret just yet. If you chase, it's conditional. I'll be tied down with work so no chase plans. Any personal forecasting is 100% eclipse right now. I hate the cloud cover forecast but some downward solar flux versions offer hope. As we saw in 2017 globals often start too cloudy due to resolution. Flux helps a bit, but of course the high-res stuff will be much more useful. We need another forecast rally in 2024!

Go near the center if this is your first total solar eclipse. Or second or third, haha! Edge gives a longer diamond ring and I imagine just wild colors if thin high clouds. Still one can't safely look at even the diamond ring naked eye. I don't see myself playing the edge unless I'm lucky enough to see 10-12 of these (not likely). Totality is safe naked eye. In totality one can safely observe the smaller orange prominences. Also the wider corona is safe to view and one of the most - if not thee most - spectacular things in nature. I love storm chasing, and Totality blows the doors off most tornadoes. It's even better than a long-track cyclical. Northern Lights from the Arctic might be the only thing that rivals Totality, but I give totality the edge. Time charts you'll notice the length of totality quickly drops off toward the edges. But the center third one loses only a few seconds off the center-line. We got just off-center in 2017 and might have avoided traffic with the head start out. Same plan 2024.

On clouds @Winter Wizard is correct the Globals over-estimate cloud cover. Using something like downward solar flux might offer a better approximation than straight cloud forecast - the latter shows any little/thin clouds. Solar flux captures our odds a little better, with understanding we need nearly clear. Cloud cover is unwelcome, but certain types are not the end of the world (esp if you have seen a clear TSE or will have another chance). As @bdgwx wrote some clouds tend to dissipate - especially convective / fair wx Cu. Unfortunately, the benefit does not apply to mid-high clouds as well. Cooling at the surface kills Cu but not mid-high clouds. While I would always try for clear skies, a thin veil of cirrus is not a total loss. I read that one can see the sharp moon shadow approach on those clouds. Clear is the eerie/majestic darkening curtain. Thin high clouds will show a sharp edge like a cheap B movie shows flying saucers take over. I've never seen it; I don't intend to see it; but, it sounds modestly interesting. Clear skies are absolutely my target. (can't find online source again) Low clouds is indeed the severe catastrophe of eclipse chasing. One of two bad things happens. Thin low clouds just scatter the light (from the white tops) and mute/destroy the shadow under the moon. Thick overcast is already dark, also scatters light, and only shows a subtle dimming at totality. Absolutely avoid low clouds. (source 1 below) Eclipses come in series called a Saros. @LibertyBell asked about return time. A saros repeats every 18 years, but it's a third of the way around the Earch. In 54 years it returns approximately to the same place, but a little farther west. This 2024 eclipse is the same saros that brought the East Coast an eclipse in 1970. Our 2017 was from a different saros. The good news is several of these saros/series is going. Earth gets an eclipse every few years somewhere. (Source 2 below) Finally @Ridingtime welcome back to the States for this! Do you have a car, chase partners, or otherwise ability to move? Ohio Valley to Northeast US might not bust, but it's still a week out. This is the 06Z GFS, the most optimistic of the 3 today. Valid time is past Totality, but the 18Z presentation is messy due to lower sun-angle. (I guess the chart integrates previous 3 hours. Because 18Z sun angle is higher than 21Z, but they present more W/m2 at 21Z and a cleaner chart.) Source/Book 1: Total Solar Eclipses of the Sun by Mabele Loomis Todd Source/Book 2: The Sun's Heartbeat by Bob Berman, Eclipse chapter Gotta read up to get pumped up!

My target is anywhere on that red path, of course the closer the better. Midwest is closest to me. Mid-South is a near second. TX and OH are my next tier of back-up plans; We have motels or places to stay to cover North Texas to Ohio. Wil cancel what's not needed according to their canx policies. If at about 5 days out South Texas or the Northeast US still looks like the only game in town, activate panic button. It could be done, but what a far cry from the Easy Button in 2017 which was clear 45 minutes up the road. About 5 minutes after 2017 we decided we're traveling for 2024. Too early to pin down target areas. Broad pattern still looks trough West ridge East, which is sub-optimal for much of the path. In about a week, we'll know if how we can work around it. We don't want something like April 1-2 positive tilt with the fronts draped along and parallel to the path. Neutral or negative tilt could be managed if the main rain band it perpendicular to the eclipse path. Just find a better spot on the path. Still ten days out; so, there is as good a chance the forecast improves as otherwise. Traffic will be worst departing. Big picnic and drinks. I'm not worried going to, but we will be there early. I prefer ol' fashioned eclipse shadow boxes to the glasses. Image in the glasses is so flat, I feel glasses don't add much value over the box. Maybe glasses for Bailey's Beads. No photography for us again, except killing time in the partial phases. I want to remember going with family and friends, but I'm not going to waste Totality fumbling with equipment. From about 5 minutes before Totality it's all about experiencing it and soaking up every last detail into long-term memory. Cicadas at midday. Birds freaking. Shadow bands on white surface. Then that shadow in the sky. People describe it as eerie, but I prefer majestic. Dark curtain rushing toward is the sign that it is almost time. It's so exciting but at the same time we went silent in awe. The only man-made sound I want to hear during Totality is my eclipse timer. Nice to know how long you got so you don't go blind, haha!

From my location MO/IL/IN are my preferred eclipse targets. All are about tied for shortest distance for me. I have backup and tertiary rooms booked to cover Texas to Ohio. I agree that we can discuss the broad wx pattern, even if it'll be several days before pinning down locations. We do not want a system like April 1-2. That sucker gets positively tilted with fronts parallel to the Totality path. We just can't have that April 8. Current models have the April 7-8 system neutral, but the risk is that changes. Sometimes these things trend to positive tilt. A negative tilt would be easiest to manage, with the main moisture feed perpendicular to the Totality path. WF could be a painful exception, but still probably not the whole path. Trough orientation is all I care about right now. Neutral and negative could be managed by picking a better spot on the Path. Positive tilt could cause much longer drives, heartburn, and gnashing of teeth. I really don't even care about timing as much as tilt. Timing can be managed by changing location. A positive tilt could be heartbreaking. If one thinks it's too early, scroll on. We don't need another noise post (comment with no discussion) in an important thread. If anything, it's been time for a couple weeks now. Finally, perhaps we get lucky and at least short-wave ridging covers large parts of the path. Ten days out the forecast has as good a chance of improving as otherwise. If TX-OH is socked in, at about the 5-day mark I'll hit the panic button and think about the Northeast US.

Yes I remember the clouds 'flipping' from white to dark with the few Cu still around in East Tenn 2017. Thankfully it was totally clear overhead. We also remembered to observe the 360-degree sunset. I did not notice the shadow on the ground, but we were in a flat area. Were you elevated in Aruba? Our main animal obs was the cicadas going off like it's evening. I've read about things like those birds etc. In a previous post I wrote about the smaller orange/pink prominences (much smaller than the silver corona) and I'm glad I remembered to look at the smaller prominences. Otherwise the 2017 delicate corona at the solar Min was absolutely gorgeous. I'm hoping 2024 near solar max the power doesn't take away from the finesse. Anyway we won't get cute with extended Bailey's Beads or Diamond Ring - just in and out of totality. I'll take 4 minutes of totality please!

I'd probably try @PWMan in almost any forecast scenario. In 2017 some KCMO friends thought they were hosed with mid-level clouds but they got a lucky break for several minutes at just the right time. If there is any chance of a breaks in clouds I would take a chance on it. I suppose have some other activity to justify the drive. Again, one should still experience some effects under overcast and observe animals react. Even mostly cloudy could yield bits and pieces of the main show. The KCMO story was a morning MCS. Of course that day clouds lingered well after the storms departed, rather than quickly clearing. Friends gave it a shot despite lots of afternoon clouds. They got the break they needed. Sometimes things actually go right! At this point it's too early to worry about the forecast though. Maybe consider some back-up locations. One can still get a motel off the path of totality in the Midwest no problem. Then drive on in that day, early of course.

New England is my tertiary or 4th backup, blowing my frequent flier miles. Per my location I'd like to see it in the Midwest or Mid-South. Texas and Ohio are my secondary backups before the tertiary gnashing of teeth. For traffic, I like the sports or large concert comparison. No huge problem getting into position if one gets out early. In 2017 we went very early and waited out the partial phases. The build-up and anticipation is fun, like waiting on a storm to gin up. Traffic getting out will be tremendous. One could bolt right after totality ends. In 2017 we found that hard to do. Enormity of the experience required some time to reflect and process it. One could hang out some more, picnic or hike. Probably don't expect a table at a restaurant until you get to a city outside totality. We ate in Chattanooga. We still have eclipse glasses, but it says they expired. Either way I will use an eclipse shadow box more. Image is so flat in the glasses, really no different than a shadow box. Ended up using mostly the shadow box in 2017 for partial phases. Minute before totality maybe the glasses add value, so you know exactly when it's safe to look. Eclipse partner thought I was crazy to use binoculars during totality. Absolutely be extra sure it's not coming out of totality - only do it with 1-2 minutes to spare. Anyway I saw the orange/pink prominences with binoculars. Wider corona is far better naked eye. Really for the whole thing, naked eye is superior. Just took a quick peek at the prominences. In 2017 we were in a solar cycle min. Corona was delicate and seemed to stretch across the sky. Two long streamers were on one side and one long streamer was on the other. The moon was blacker than I'd imagined, but intellectually it makes total sense. Actually everything was even better than the hype. In 2024 we are near a solar peak. I've read the corona will be bolder but maybe more concentrated. Sky may be darker since it's a longer totality. Could be a great vivid contrast. Guess we'll find out if a stronger / bolder corona is pretty. I know I loved the delicate version in 2017. This 2024 will be my second total solar eclipse. Either way it'll be so incredible! Don't forget to soak in everything. Last minute or two is wild when the sky gets darker incoming. Also shadow bands could start 5 minutes early if I recall, maybe just a couple min. White surface looks like the bottom of a swimming pool. I think the cicadas were going several minutes before totality. Deep partial phases are pretty cool too. I think of deep partial and total like structure and tornado to the storm chaser. Of course both are great, but there's only one mission on April 8. Chase the clear skies and it must be Totality.

Vols are still in it! Sweet 16. One of my brackets is doing well, but it requires Tennessee to the Final Four. The others are bust. In other news, the Central/West and Ohio Valley both lack total eclipse threads for April 8. What a pity! New England has a thread, but I sure hope it's clear much closer. We had a thread going two years before August 2017. Who started it? Thank you! Search is acting up now. Tennessee Valley remains the best Region!

Thursday sky definitely had a fall feel. I couldn't put my finger on it, but yeah it was the smoke. Friday we are back in business with a proper deep blue sky.

True as a profession too, lol! I thought the Plains was strange forecasting. Then I moved to the Tennessee Valley. But yeah, the strato fake-outs surely have caused problems for numerical models this season. Probably connect very late and just ruin severe season.

Epic model failure! How a cold forecast goes torch. I'm out until spring severe. Except Banter, always college basketball.

Looks to me like the Strato warmings cannot connect with the Troposphere. Modelling for late February was a total bust. There is some hope in early March, but that gets toward mid March. No true connection with Canadian air either. We would have to hope for a bowling ball. They can and do happen that late. If this does not work I'm ready for severe early and often.

Good to read reports of lightning and thunder. We can settle the mid-term debate in the pinned thread. Snow before the season ends!

Indeed @Itryatgolf70 this unusual combo of -PDO and El Nino has been fickle. It's how we get a great storm track, but putting cold air in place is like pulling teeth - without Novocain.

Cold core setups do weird things, but often photogenic things. Saturday on the hardwood Eve. Tennessee goes on the road in what's pretty much a must win game. Gotta get Ws on the road. Kentucky will win hosting Gonzaga. Kansas will win hosting Baylor. Alabama and Auburn are both on the road. I have no idea. Couple other Big 12 games that might be interesting are TCU at Iowa St. and Oklahoma bedlam.

The Indo-Pacific is a mess. Convection that has come east from the Dateline is old news. Thunderstorms percolating over the Maritime Subcontinent (Indonesia / Malaysia) are a warm signal (current pattern) that was supposed to move east into colder phases again. Ope! Got new convection blowing up in the Indian Ocean. As it marches east it gets into the warm signal Maritime Subcontinent again. MJO models are not as messy as the reality I see on satellite. I suspect weather models will continue to struggle for North America. At least the southern storm track looks active.

The next snow is always 3 weeks away, kind of like the next Kansas road win.

South Carolina played dirty, but UT needs to play through that. Oh I have my own problems. Kansas may look invincible at home, but can't win against Q3 on the road. As for the NCAA I've long called it Nazi Commies Against Athletes. It's corrupt, power hungry, greedy, and doesn't want to share with the athletes.

I thought Kansas was inconsistent. Then Kentucky is like, hold my beer! Tonight Alabama and Auburn should be interesting. Hopefully high scoring. So Tennessee has the whole week off? Should be well rested for Saturday.

Big ol' Siberian high invaded China. They have racked up above normal snow cover now. High press extends over the Pole to Alaksa. However a big ol' GOA Low is grinding away. Could get cold again in 2-3 weeks. Fow now, Hurry Up And Wait!

Yeah that's a dubious stat. Anytime from the late 60s to early 80s we had the -PDO and -AMO which is ideal for low latitude winter storms. Basically dig the jet stream south coast to coast. I agree with @John1122 something is awry. I'm on board with the consensus climate science, but the community must do better with so-called data quality control. Stuff like this seeds doubt in the data, and then doubt in future predictions. Burden of proof is still on us scientists, even if we're very confident.