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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    It's getting windy because somebody posted Cousin Eddie, who is from Kansas. Some of it is typical fropa wind. We also have a bit of a press gradient tomorrow as the low press deepens off the Carolinas.
  2. nrgjeff
    Yes light snow has been falling in East Brainerd, Chattanooga probably for 30 min or more per other in-town and 'burbs reports. I was watching the Michigan and MSU game. Half-time is check floodlight out window time! Thank you Signal Mountain crew for the earlier reports. Now we just settle in. This system radar and ground truth might have lower than usual correlations. Flakes growing in EB but yeah I think this is just an initial snow band.
  3. nrgjeff
    In contrast to my Obs thread rant.. On the positive side for tonight and tomorrow, the cold core. KCMO area is squeezing out snow showers despite a dearth of multi-level clouds. KCMO is not exactly known for upslope, ha! If they can do it, favored areas in Tennessee will do well on Saturday / Sat. night.
  4. nrgjeff
    Regarding Downslope. Also if Chatty gets dome blocked somehow. Not good, otherwise... Also I may need to stop everything until I find out what the hell is going on Signal Mountain. If they can't even get it to saturate, rage will grow exponentially in town.
  5. nrgjeff
    Shifting from forecast to nowcast. Have to decide whether this is stay up late or get up early. I'm gonna need a rave for the all-of-the-above all-nighter option. Wetbulbs are probably in the mid-30s everywhere. With below 0C temps aloft it's all snow. Any initial sprinkles should goto snow. Plateau clearly has multiple rounds. This is the appetizer. Main course is tonight into early Saturday. Saturated profile snow goes on into Saturday night. Mountains is even better. Chatty looks mostly overnight. Everywhere around us will go through Saturday morning, but it'll cut off fast in Chat-town. Enjoy it while it's here! Everywhere else looks good on MRX charts. Upper Plateau will almost certainly over-achieve though.
  6. nrgjeff
    Here we go! Roads will get slick in Chattanooga late tonight and Saturday morning. probably not as bad as 2014 since we are not as cold. I like the rest of the MRX snow chart too.
  7. nrgjeff
    Roads will go insta-slick in Chatty. They'll eventually go winter wx advisory. Can't justify a warning with no tree damage, but that awful travel morning in 2014 is on the table. Good thing it's a Saturday!
  8. nrgjeff
    Straight from WPC! My hype train has left the station.
  9. nrgjeff
    Chattanooga will eventually get a winter weather advisory, but I think we are still a period away. Perhaps afternoon ZFP. Thankfully it's on a Saturday, but light snow will turn roads immediately icy like the 2014 debacle. Knoxville could get more than a few inches of powder. Classic travel related WSW. Powder should be no problem for the power infrastructure. Plus it's well away from the main Restoration Area. Absurd cold at 500, 700 mb and periods of subtle WAA at 850 will do it. Leads off with slight WAA ahead. Then some WAA into the cold core later hours. Plus that DGZ beneath where models usually "look." Finally yea, the Carolina mountains are going to have Utah level powder. Ski conditions don't get any better in the World. And it's gonna be right here! If one is already ski in ski out. Roads? oof!
  10. nrgjeff
    Euro indeed improved so much at 06Z that is snows in.. Chattanooga!! I'm cautiously optimistic with the very cold ULL and low-level soundings beneath it. NBM high-res Ensemble still lacks snow; but, I hypothesize the Ens algo isn't translating very light QPF to fluffy snow. We'll see. NAM and others are trying to come around. Yeah FV3 hints. I get a choppy presentation on my sub, but it's snow in Tenn. We need more of that Euro trend. Cue up Back That Thang Up by whoever sungs it. Maybe Stove could build a club /snow meme. Hip Hop snow dance!
  11. nrgjeff
    Vols game last night was the same as tracking Southern snow. Got it! Ope, OT Comfy lead. Ope, one-pointer! Vols reeled in the road win. Let's do the same in East Tenn!
  12. nrgjeff
    I agree 100% with Uncle Nasty. Then the trowal will just get going a county east of Chatty. We're left with broken low clouds and a clear view of the virga to the east. Can I paint a more rage inducing picture? I had a crap day at work so I only see negatives!
  13. nrgjeff
    The 06Z NAM is too good to be true. Even a quasi-trowal to help keep snow in Tenn. If that's busts it'll be the biggest NAM job in quite a while. Going high risk 60% hatched of disappointment. Otherwise globals keep light snow and snow showers northeast, Plateau, Mountains, the usual. 12Z and AI commentary will be in a few hours. My NAM cynicism aside, models overnight look OK.
  14. nrgjeff
    FWIW this weekend, the NBM high-res ensemble in on board with light snow northeast Tenn. plus the usual Upper Plateau and of course Mountains. Ensemble product isn't picking up on what MRX has in the forecaster's discussion AFD for overnight, but some short-term high-res models pick up on the said flurries or snow showers tonight. Also tonight, freezing fog in the MEM CWA is another issue worth noting. No new accum. Just possible early Wednesday travel headaches.
  15. nrgjeff
    Oh brother! I was in the middle of relo from DFW to CHA. For Christmas I told my wife I'd fly back to DFW in hopes of warmer weather. She asked about snow here. Keep in mind a month out. I said no way! Snows in Chatty and we miss the white Christmas. Worse yet, it was a cold rain in DFW around 40 deg. Anyway that's not happening again this weekend. I'm too traumatized by the memory to forecast greater detail, ha! That's one I'd never get over, except we had a saving grace actually a year prior. DFW snow showers and dusting+ Christmas Eve 2009.
  16. nrgjeff
    BNA 00Z sounding is still saturated to 700 mb. Can't dry out the column once saturated to 400 mb. Could be some super cooled freezing drizzle across the Valley when it gets cold enough - if that sounding holds. Would be the first time I have seen Chattanooga fail to dry out in a cold chasing rain system. Well why not? System has yet another curveball.
  17. nrgjeff
    Sounding is still saturated to 700 mb. Takes some time to dry out when it was up to 400 mb. I'm thinkin' some under the radar snow showers in parts of our region. My other thought locally is freezing drizzle with super-cooled water droplets. Everything about -5 no dendrites but freezing drizzle. I made the call that cold chasing rain in Chattanooga would dry out. If not it's literally the first time in my LIFE that doesn't verify. Well sh!t everything else about this storm was whacked!
  18. nrgjeff
    USA today made their Data free today for power outages. Map is a little more user friendly than poweroutages dot us but the latter updates faster and has Local Power Companies. OFF THE GRID: United States Power Outage Tracker | usatoday.com Both sites show the shock and awe. Some areas are 100% dark. In some cases a TVA reconnect would help, but the Local Company would still be mostly out. Other cases it might actually be the entire distribution system - I sure hope not! Unbelievable Lewis Co. Next one north Hickman Co. is 97% out.
  19. nrgjeff
    Wow that's a bad combo. Lots of moderate rain still. Was hoping the Nashville Metro could get a few more hours >32. Anyone up on Signal Mountain above Chattanooga? Just rain in town, but I figure <32 for the duration on the Mountain. Out near Oxford MS some EMs posted it sounded like a war. Trees pop ever few minutes. That blue/green light when transformers fail.
  20. nrgjeff
    Wouldn't be the first time. Won't be the last time. Re below: Yeah some models have a little back side. Chatty won't get anything that set-up, but it could be a nice little all-snow dessert at the end for points north and east.
  21. nrgjeff
    FZRA and 30 here but not adding any ice in East Brainerd, Chattanooga. My guess is the ground picked up some solar insolation through the clouds. Metal is getting some new ice but even the bushes are not accruing. We'll see how it goes after sunset. It's going to be a buzzer beater, since I'm also watching a ton of basketball. Warm nose or CAD wrap? That's for the current wave. Sunday looks safely rain in Chattanooga until the very end and light. As we cautiously let our guard down east, keep those out west in our thoughts. Many places that had sleet have switched over to FZRA. It's moderate and with several hours to go; then, round 2 tomorrow.
  22. nrgjeff
    End of the month system still shows up on GFS and AIFS Euro AI. Other ensembles are of course all over the place. That'll also have implications on the High Risk for much below normal temps from CPC.
  23. nrgjeff
    Memphis looks to keep mostly snow and sleet this first wave. Concerns remain on Sunday. Reliable models are split between more sleet or a slug of freezing rain. Nashville is of course subject to everything running cold. Several hours of all rain off ramp is in jeopardy. Sleet remains an exit ramp. Otherwise, major ice storm there - continuation of North Miss to southern Mid-Tenn. Chattanooga will stay ice longer than forecast into tonight. CAD is c0ck blocking the warm nose.
  24. nrgjeff
    I want to make sure that's not Barrons Wx. Their official page is good. They were a major pioneer in weather radar display for commercial use. Much respect! I'm just struggling with his forecasting lane.
  25. nrgjeff
    Chattanooga is all freezing rain. Light at the moment - mercifully. No more sleet. Radar above confirms it's all rain aloft. QPF is going to be all ice until sometime this evening. Temps are way under forecast and cooler models keep it below freezing until later in the evening.
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