nrgjeff
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Everything posted by nrgjeff
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Chattanooga got it Saturday! Several thousand power outages were reported, something like 12K+ I estimate about 50 mph gusts at my location. Other parts of the city, instruments measured 60-70 mph. Saturday in Chattanooga and surrounding areas was a classic bow echo.
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Mid-range models are hinting at Friday Hoosier Alley. Wrong Region? Nah, ours is the best region and it's close, ha! Also unruly outflow boundaries south of progged could push that closer to our Mid-South, though probably not anything rotating. Better shear is Hoosier Alley. SPC hints at it in their 4-8 day text but I agree it's a bit early for a 15% valid Friday. I just gotta talk weather. Ventured into the off-topic toilet bowl this morning. SOS!
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Yes this weather is unusually comfortable for the beginning of June now. Too bad we're smoked out. While social media argues about the +/-Bz and Aurora Sunday night, we can just go to bed early. No chance with the smoke anyway. So, enjoy the mild temps and low RH.
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Given the PDO is erratic, their study may be valid. Who knows if the Atlantic will ever cool off? Scientific consensus across all Journals is evolving. Or, we lack understanding to model the causation. Either way, the historical record may be useful. What's North American 2m temperature do with different states of the Atlantic and Pacific (and combos)? Instead of treating them as predictable oscillators, just take the Ocean temps at face value during this or the upcoming season. Both negative is going to be a cold possibly snowy winter for many. Both positive is going to be grill out and drink for many. If I was going to pick on oscillator to quit, I'd punt the QBO. It's rate of change could be useful, but its steady state has not been useful since George Bush was president.
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Soon we are due to go negative AMO. Keep in mind soon is measured in years. Here is a smoothed chart from an energy climate page. Yes, some energy companies acknowledge it. We better, if our demand forecasts are going to be worth anything. Then the PDO has been a little flaky. It faked out cool phase a few times since 2000. Will it be able to hold? Perhaps the warmer background makes it harder to stick. So, I'm very curious how the AMO goes in the coming decade. Both negative could be epic winters!
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I took a little Sunday drive to South Pittsburg, Tenn. No it's not far. South Pittsburg shelfies! Separately thank you to all Veterans to who serve(d). Especially we remember those who are fallen for our freedom.
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SPC is talking outflow boundary isolated tornadoes both Saturday and Sunday. The Saturday boundary and outlook is south of most of us, as expected with a morning through midday MCS. Sunday is below. Smaller morning MCS is forecast, and it could break up and allow redevelopment Sunday afternoon. Monday could be similar. While it's 3 days in a row it's Marginal-Slight, so not a huge deal. Still I find it quite interesting so late in the season. Sunday is below, updated Friday afternoon.
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Unfortunately lots of scattered but significant damage is reported in North Alamba. James Spann posted. Also saw text reports from EMs. Sad deal more like an April event. Haven't heard much from the Nashville 'burbs. Meanwhile sups split Chattanooga so we lucked out here. I was unable to truly chase on Tuesday due to work requirements. However during a lull between the Cherokee, AL / Pickwick Reservoir tornado and evening trouble I was able to get out locally. A severe warned cell (actually the Cherokee cell hours later) tracked from Monteagle, to Dunlap, to Soddy Daisy all Tennessee. I-24 is a no-fly zone for me at rush hour, so no Monteagle, but I was able to track it from Dunlap to Soddy just north of Chattanooga. It was between 6-7 pm EDT before the Madison, AL and Huntsville stuff got really ugly. Here are my low-lights. While the first is arguably structure out of the spotter's guide, less crisp but good for East Tenn... the rest is scuddy crap. Oh well! At least I got out of the house. So while the Cherokee cell stopped producing tornadoes, it retained supercell characteristics for several hours. I believe it was on the intersection of the outflow boundary and a prefrontal trough. Evening cells were associated more with the main surface trough - enhanced by the same outflow boundary.
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And just like that.. Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee boundary ahead of the Delta front is back. 00/06Z too much midday rain was forecast, keeping it stable. Now most progs have the morning rain dissipating, leaving a cooking boundary. Satellite shows very little cloud cover in its wake. Just bake. 10:45 CDT and the RRFS later, not that it'll really verify that bullish. Just remember Southern weather forecasting is like a box of chocolates.
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Reading between the lines, the Hail outlook tells a lot. True supercells are only going to be out by the Delta. The pre-frontal trough farther east now looks like it'll be a little less volatile. Much of the severe farther east may end up bows and line segments. They can produce tornadoes, but yeah 45% wind seems to be the right issue on which to focus.
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Same forecaster Bentley issued the early Day 2 today and early Day 3 yesterday. Bentley went from 'a little veered for tornadoes' to possible strong tornadoes. In between (Day 3 update) Leitman gradually moved that bar. Agency wide trend is steady, but the same forecaster trend is really useful to read between the lines. Should be just enough turning with height, especially given the instability forecast. Local low-level shear will be enhanced along the lifting boundary into Kentucky. Then Tennessee will have the main synoptic boundary and likely a pre-frontal convergence zone. Low levels might be slightly veered; however, mid-level vector crosses those boundaries at a slightly greater angle than the west-east boundary farther north. WF is in Kentucky. Prefrontal trough will move from West to Middle Ky/Tenn. Synoptic front will start in Mo/Arkansas and then cross the Mississippi River. Most models have storms on all 3 boundaries. Update 17:30Z: They expanded the wind ENH east and dropped 45% wind (still ENH not hatched). Tornado is also nudged east, but not far compared to wind. 06Z Chart below is still my most favored area(s). Enhanced risk (early Day 2) probabilities are 30% wind and 10% tornado both lined up at (06Z version).
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Tuesday it appears that the warm front will be up along the Ohio River again. Outflow should at least start out in Tennessee. System should be strong enough to lift it north again. However the timing is just a little faster than on Friday.. So we get other prefrontal convergence line(s) in Tennessee. That's not necessary a recipe for upgrade. As SPC notes it's a bit veered off. Shortwave could also outrun storms, which would really help keep things in check. Slower wave than what the globals show would tee up the Valley a bit.
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That early watch text seemed a little bullish. I'd be more concerned about tonight. MRX remains most concerned about tonight and that makes sense. Outflow boundary has lifted into Kentucky which should reduce the Tennessee threat this afternoon. Then tonight the line should sag south from Kentucky. Those Missouri cells will probably have a filed day riding the Kentucky boundary until they turn southeast into Tennessee and go mainly wind.
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Looks like an MD for a watch downstream of morning Kentucky severe storms in progress. John, MRX had a non-public EM graphic for later this evening (a second round) just south of the MD blue zone which would include you. MRX actually backed off tornado language in favor of damaging wind. Sorry that's probably not what you wanted to read. Separately the RRFS is talkin' dirty. It covects the outflow boundary in Tennessee south of the synoptic front still in Kentucky. Even has cells near Crossville up on the Plateau with that greater surface inflow (elevation). We'll see with lots of mid-level clouds. If not enough surface heating the outflow will be capped. Some models keep the capped solution. Even this RRFS simulation has the Tennessee cells pretty small - a sign of possible cap bust.
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Ope! Moderate risk is posted for Friday (night). But hey, John is just 15% in the hail genre. So how badly did my post age? Moderate is a wind hatched 45%. They keep the worst hail NW Tenn into Kentucky. The 10% TOR is along and north of a line from Dyersburg to Clarksville. For most of us this is a straight-line wind storm on Friday night. ENH is our 30% wind. Perhaps we are due to blow some trees down on I-40? It's been several years, ha!
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Don't worry @John1122 SPC just has Slight on Friday, and I agree. Of course with high cape and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail is a concern. However will that type of intense storm be common? There is an argument for bowing segments, which favors straight wind instead. First we should have some thundershowers on Friday morning. Morning rain should leave an outflow boundary in Tenn. It should lift from Tennessee north through Kentucky by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms should redevelop from Kentucky north into the Lower Ohio River Valley. Kentucky could get a few supercells Friday afternoon. I'd put the hail up there. Indeed CAPE will be high and mid-level lapse rates steep. If one believes the Euro with farther south boundary and rain, it'd be too stable in Tennessee anyway. I figure storms will congeal into a cluster or two in Kentucky, and perhaps come through Tennessee as a line Friday night. That'd favor straight wind over hail. A smaller Enhanced risk would not surprise me around where the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers meet. Depends on if and where a mesoscale triple point can form.
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Thank you! I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought I heard a plane. Still it was a much flatter sound, vs the approach depart Doppler effect on sound waves. Nerd out time! Anyway, I was in a wide span gym at the time. Perhaps I heard the roof rattling? Never felt it. Plane like sound was too flat to be a plane. I dismissed it as HVAC grumbling. Wife was at home and happened to be upstairs. She said she felt it noticeably, which makes sense upstairs, but she first thought it's a truck on our street. Getting to the main weather pattern, no May heat is seen. Yeah it'll get pretty warm later this week and again next week, but that's between cold fronts. I don't really count that as a heat ridge. Then we might close out May nice and cool esp in the Apps. Out in Calif they say earthquake weather is warm and dry. Apparently in Tennessee it's mild and showery. Hmmm maybe climo is a good place to start.
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Local action without a major outbreak is tough to do in East Tennessee. These are really the best days! Work isn't nuts, but we still got a shot at seeing a good shelfie or random ping pong ball. Oh I should be careful about what I wish. China had giant hail yesterday. We don't need that! Golfball is the red line where it goes from neat stuff to big trouble. We also have a 2% tornado which feels broad. I'd focus that right on the east-west boundary that will sharpen up by late afternoon. It's forecast along or just south of I-40. If it can stay up there, the Upper Cumberland Plateau has a history of modest tornadoes beneath otherwise meh upper-level shear. I believe being elevated promotes a stronger surface wind; then add a boundary, and it's just enough low level shear. Elsewhere I feel like shear is just not quite there. Upper levels are modest. Low levels get a little veered south of I-40. We'll see.
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Mesoscale details are flexing in a pattern that acts more like June 2. In fact our lead wave is an MCV from overnight Texas activity. So June. Then outflow boundaries are strewn about. MD #648 keys in on outflow spit out from ongoing thunderstorms approaching Middle Tenn. New line going through Memphis will be able to interact with the said outflow boundary. I also feel like a more diffuse boundary stretches east through North Alabama into North Georgia, attempting to lift north farther east. That boundary could be left over from Thursday evening storms. While it has a couple more hours to destabilize, scattered storms are already developing that way. When the main line gets there it should have a bow shape which favors straight wind over rotation. QLCS spin-up or two might be possible. Otherwise, I think the diffuse boundary just serves to keep storms robust and straight winds strong.
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This weekend is going to feel cool after some muggy evenings this week. Then next week looks like overnight lows stay nice with near perfect afternoons in the 70s. Above normal heights North with normal South will be nice as long as we can keep it going. Brings ample rain. Keeps temps in check. Sure be nice into summer.
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Plains States Observations and Discussion Thread
nrgjeff replied to lookingnorth's topic in Central/Western States
Good day to review maps of the Palo Duro Canyon and the limited road crossings. 5% in the Panhandle. 60 hatched gnashing of teeth if one gets stuck missing the show or worse. -
This weather pattern would get us through summer without drought. Heights are only slightly AN and the latest front got through our region (though not the Deep South). Later in summer if the center of the ridge is north then t-showers can pop up down here on the underside. That's a humid outcome though. Fortunately we probably still have another couple months (at least six week) of fronts getting through.
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Plains States Observations and Discussion Thread
nrgjeff replied to lookingnorth's topic in Central/Western States
Days and days of Marginal to Slight risks on the Texas Caprock, at times up to Raton Mesa, Colorado. Anything other than the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles shouldn't be as crowded - Colorado or down toward the Edwards Plateau. Kid of wish I'd went out there this week. I try not to think like that. Travel chasing means one is certainly going to miss early season days. Nebraska last week is an example. Happy for those who got it; never thought about going myself. This week is different because it's multiple days. What once looked like fluctuating heights and cap questions, ends up being enough southwest flow aloft, with corresponding LLJ response each evening, and moisture at the surface. Activity should still be Plains centered this weekend after a trough spits out on Friday. Main trough remains in the Rockies for perhaps a couple more days over the weekend and/or early next week. SPC notes some cap risk on Sunday. -
Guess we get decent coverage of rain.. Referencing my post in the main spring discussion thread. Then the WPC discussion reads like something out of summer. Are we really doing this so early? National pattern too. Days and days of Marginal to Slight on the Texas Caprock. Crap! I should be out there this week.
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Yes hopefully we can get decent coverage of thundershowers this week. Except for this Marginal, which really reminds me of a lumbering summer front, it doesn't look severe. Anyway the ol' boundary should help Tuesday and Wednesday as well, esp southern Tennessee border into MS/AL/GA. Then it looks like next week and perhaps the first full week of May the Region has slightly below normal precip. I'm not as optimistic as the CPC. We'll get days but not many. Ridge meanders from the Plains to Midwest, which will keep fronts fewer. No hardcore SER so temps should only be slightly AN. That same pattern in the summer would allow pop up storms but it'd also be humid. Whether we like it or not it could be a preview. That said I figure we'll get one more cool trough sometime in May before we go balls-to-the-wall until August.
