Terpeast

Now winding down a bit in intensity. That was a great round of steady heavy rain, will update as soon as my nearest pws updates its qpf. looks like the tornadic stuff missed me to the SW and W

Pouring now

Big batch on my doorstep, hopefully I stay inside the eastern edge of it. but I’ll pass on the tornadoes

1.41" so far today

It would probably have turned out to be a snowy winter too had the Japan marine heat wave abated enough and the PDO more neutral or on the positive side. While it was our best chance for a snowy winter in years, there was indeed a 1972-73 flavor given how negative the PDO was and the ENSO-induced SE trough was more tilted to the west giving California all these atmospheric rivers and historic mountain snows. I noticed 72-73 and mentioned it in my winter outlook, but didn’t want to emphasize it too much because well… that would’ve been a disaster. At least we avoided a total shutout thanks to that January -EPO block.

0.43” since last night. I’d be content with a total of 3” by saturday. The mountains and shen valley need it more.

If it goes that cold, roni will be strong nina

Looks like today isn’t in the cards for mby, hopefully get in the game tomorrow

I’d still take it

I hope the ICON is wrong

I drove through this storm. Turned off 50 onto 606 north on the west side of the airport. That’s when it started. White knuckled it home to ashburn - couldn’t see a damn thing on the road. Car was shaking in that wind. My wife was terrified Thank goodness we got home ok

And mby also hits 100

I see IAD hit 100. 98 imby

I’m a little over 3 inches behind you. 24.6” on the year, but more than half of it was from Jan-Mar.

0.33” overnight

98 imby. HI 107. Doesn't feel that hot, maybe I'm used to it now Umm no, I’ll take that back. It is HOT

High of 96 today. Humid

Haha well mby has been suffering as much as many of us west of 95. Haven’t mowed the grass in 2 months, and my county is talking water restrictions if things don’t improve soon. Only last night I lucked out for once.

Picked up another 0.62” with that second round. Flush hit… finally! Total 1.06”

Another cell incoming just as i go to bed. Will check precip totals in the morning

Got 0.44” from that cell which consolidated over me (Ashburn) into MoCo. Nice one to end a relatively hot and dry month.

Yep, good downpour with gusty winds. Much needed. looks like an efficient rain producer

Line starting to gel a bit as it approaches mby from the SW, hope it holds enough for at least 0.3”

Went up to 96 today

True, and also true about the south based blocks linking up with the SE ridge - that’s a pretty new phenomenon. I personally like numerical index values only because they’re easier to analyze in Excel or run a machine learning model on (one of my ongoing side projects btw). Not easy to do that with spatial 500mb maps, but it’s important to use those maps to validate any conclusion drawn from analysis using numerical indices. I’m also realizing that the NAO shouldn’t even be looked at in isolation, but in combination with the AO and other indices. The deviation of the AO from the NAO in and of itself should be a clue that something amiss is going on.