Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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34.2, gah. Wet bulb at 30
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26.6/23
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Bottomed out at 27.1, now 27.3
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LCPS 2 hour delay 27.9/23.1
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Temp drop is slowing down. 28.6/22.6.
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Just checked all the mesos forecasts of 2m temp at valid 00z 12/2 (which is right now), and they are all too warm. The closest one is fv3 Doesn’t mean anything about upstairs, but surface is colder than forecast.
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My high was 45, and then dropped like a rock.
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29.8/23, still clear
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Yes but nam 3k had me at 36, so who knows. Once the clouds roll in, we may rebound a few degs
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34.7/24, wb 29.5. HRRR sounding has me at 38 at this time.
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Awesome, UVA is a great school and really nice to have the in state price. You’re doing great with your met analyses! Keep it up.
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You’re in cville now? UVA?
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Dropped 3 degrees in 25 min. Now 37/22
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40/23, still clear
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I was expecting a mid-month warmup, but that's looking more and more temporary.
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Yep, some really good ones out there! I don’t like to drink alcohol during week nights because I get up early for work (like 4:30 am), so I love NA brews because I can get my fix anytime not just on weekends. 44 and blazing sun. Can’t be good for temps in a marginal situation.
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Reminds me of Jan 2024 when we got two northern stream waves that trended south with the PV push and hit us with a pair of 2-4"/3-5" snowfalls a week apart. And that was during an el nino winter, ironically. This is likely the best case scenario in a NS-dominant regime as depicted above.
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The deamp trend is still alive and well. Maybe we should start looking for "cutters" along with blocking and... "right where we want it at 6 days out"?
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I would love for that HRRR to verify
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This is a better setup IF the EPS is right. Just a tad too far north and east
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Closing the book on November and now enjoying the chilly temps. 37 degrees outside, feels like holidays inside.
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The hope is the weaker PV and -QBO tips us more into -AO territory for late dec through Jan. That’s when we should get our chances.
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He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put.
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EPS has it too for next weekend… and an even stronger signal for 12/10. Not often I see something like this more than 10 days out:
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It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly
