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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    @psuhoffman I mostly went toward the cams for the usual fall line, but leaned towards the euro for well N and W. *on baby duty rn, can’t explain my reasoning in detail. Sorry
  2. Terpeast
    Another 3 hours perhaps? Then pixie dust first hour or so, and the rates increase. At least that’s the plan…
  3. Terpeast
    Gefs look good on this threat. Nice signal. Next event to track. (Also that clipper in between)
  4. Terpeast
    Doubt it. I’ll go with what LWX is saying, if not an hour later. Next hrrr run may show something different
  5. Terpeast
    Recent hrrr tries to start us earlier, but has us fighting dry air and doesn’t get us going in earnest till 7z
  6. Terpeast
    18z 3k nam doesn’t start precip in dc metro till 6z. LWX has us starting at 3z
  7. Terpeast
  8. Terpeast
    Starting to fall, 17/-6
  9. Terpeast
    Holding at 19/-6 in Ashburn
  10. Terpeast
    That is very very good news… not from a “potentially snowier” weenie perspective, but in terms of perhaps less impacts/power outages/accidents.
  11. Terpeast
    Mix line on 18z nam most similar to 12z yesterday at the same hour (06z Sun). That run doesn’t flip DC until 14z
  12. Terpeast
    Nowcast comparison for 19z: Decent agreement, good initialization for HRRR
  13. Terpeast
    Looks colder than 12z nam for the same times
  14. Terpeast
    Looks like 5-7” thump for dc metro
  15. Terpeast
    16.9/-6
  16. Terpeast
    Comparing gfs forecast for 18z today with current radar Seems faster? Sleet line a bit south
  17. Terpeast
    There’s that GL low. AI is “learning” about those
  18. Terpeast
    I think its a little bit of both. Models touched on the right idea over 10 days ago when they wanted to cut the storm west of us. Gfs had that, just too extreme with 80” snowfall in PA. That’s characteristic of ninas. But then they went way south with all that cold. We still have the cold, but models returned to their original idea.
  19. Terpeast
    It would have been a rainstorm if our temps were even in the climo range
  20. Terpeast
    Split the difference since you’re further north/NE. 5-9” perhaps
  21. Terpeast
    Sticking with the middle of the road forecast I made earlier, not panicking over the bad CAM runs. 4-8” mix/ice DC metro, 6-10” sleet fest with some zr NW
  22. Terpeast
    Yeah I thought a lot more zr, but no, just drier with precip max across PA. So far it’s an outlier
  23. Terpeast
    Nowcast precip shield more expansive than 3k nam forecast for 14-15z, with the ice line a tick further south than modeled. But just a little bit
  24. Terpeast
    Welcome to meteorology!
  25. Terpeast
    We’ve busted low recently because the temps had been too warm at the surface - is the main reason. But that’s not the case now.
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