Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Seems the ops led the way on this one (provided the non-torch verifies)
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Just checked other pws obs, most are at 32 and mine seems to be a warm spot. Maybe others nearby are doing better than me. eta: dropped to 32.9 and seeing some back building on radar, maybe we got time
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0.5”, coming down good but temp still at 33. Maybe I was wrong about temps not being an issue
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Snowing, 0.1-0.2” so far. 33
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Few drops, 36. Precip band just to the NW should move SE with the cold air push. Patience is needed.
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Nothing falling atm imby, 37. Didn’t think it was supposed to start this early though
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Based on radar, expecting precip to start within the hour.
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34.7
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35 here too. Dew at 29. Don’t think temps will be an issue
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Yeah i gotcha, I don’t like changing my forecasts too much. Maybe once after an initial call, but that’s it
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This will be my last one
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My updated forecast and final call (Note BR and cacotins can be double my numbers)
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36.9 as of 5:15p in ashburn
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I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end.
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If 0.4” qpf is correct for mby, thats a solid 3”+ which I think is the boom scenario. Very achievable though
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Just now there is. Eastern Loudoun as well
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Yeah anyone east of the BR is in the game, just the vibe changed when the models shifted main band NW, which isn’t surprising to see.
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39 here, underperforming temp forecast (it was supposed to be 45)
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Euro reflects my thinking on where the best banding may set up just NW of 95 rather than right along it or SE (except extreme NE MD through DE and S NJ.
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Yeah with 1”/hr rates it won’t take long to clear 4” NE of balt
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Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50
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Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW
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I noticed that over greenland/scandinavia. While that hasn’t yet translated to an eastern trough, I see BN temp anomalies NYC north and less “torchy” conditions down here in the MA. Tells me CAD events may be a possibility, something we haven’t seen in ages. And perhaps the E trough will pop in if/when the-nao persists at least a week.
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It still gives me about 1.5” imby, so if that’s the “worst” model, I’ll take. Happy to see balt corridor get the jack this time though
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Watching for an expansion of wwa west to cover Loudoun and Frederick counties
