Terpeast

PSU will be happy too

Back edge upon me, hasn’t flipped from ra/ip mix. But was still fun. Onto the next!

GEFS did well a month ago when the MJO was still in 6. But EPS is now catching up in forecast performance since we went into 7. And don’t sleep on the AIFS ensembles for mid-latitude 500mb at 6-15 days out. It’s been wiping the floor lately.

Hard to believe it’s not even december yet. Feels good to have frozen and be tracking multiple threats. Sleet continues, 33.8

Temp getting interesting. 33.6 and dropping, dewpoint 29. Might end as snow before precip moves out? (Ashburn VA)

Didnt see anything faling, but deck shows that it had snowed and sleeted. Calling it a trace. Edit: still sleeting

If you compare the 500mb maps they aren’t all that different. The block west of alaska on aifs ens is further west on eps, but eps shows more western US ridging. Both show a TPV in canada with a eastern trough and a -NAO. Biggest thing is how the Alaska domain is resolved, as that will have big effects downstream.

Euro/eps doing best with general pattern, but not sure about thermals. Could turn out to be flatter/weaker but warmer like gfs/nam.

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs.

Fwiw both aifs ensembles and EPS have been cleaning up with verification scores at 500mb over CONUS. Other models aren’t even coming close.

Euro gives me a 6 hour thump before flip. If it’s correct, maybe my shoe will be on the menu……

The mid month warm up was to be expected. However the +epo is projected to wane at the end of the 15 day forecast period.

I think those who were saying less amp called it, and gfs took a step in that direction. Not saying its gonna snow, its too warm for the lowlands. Still thinking coating to 2” slop far NW of fall line.

Agreed. Even 2-3 weeks later, a carbon copy of this system will give most of us some snow down to the bay.

High of 41, coldest so far of season

Just saw flurries! 37

Actually, EPS has been catching up with MJO verification in the last week or so. It did horribly when it was in phase 6, but much better once we crossed into 7.

AIFS ensembles have also been performing well with the polar domain's 500mb patterns, and both it and EPS have been trending less positive with the AO in recent runs. Otoh, GEFS has been verifying better with the MJO. Something to watch for.

Yeah, if it rockets through the cold phases, it won't do anything for us. A slow crawl hugging COD would extend cold risk for us.

It looks like GEFS is trying to loop back into 7/8 after its u-turn into 6. Hovmollers shows this as well.

Small bit of good news - cold is overperforming. For the midwest storm, their forecasters shifted their maps a tick south.

Maybe I’m wrong and maybe I’m bailing too early on 12/2 but I’m not feeling a snowy outcome for I-95. It’s too early in the season, and the antecedent cold air is really not *that* cold. Most likely outcome is mainly rain maybe brief mixing along I-95 and a couple inches far NW. I do think its great we are tracking two threats early on. That alone is a promising sign for this winter. I just don’t think it’s a hit for us this time. Maybe 12/6 hits instead. Who knows at this point. Again, like I said, I’m willing to eat my shoe if I’m wrong.

We’re just not in a climatologically favorable time and the models did not go in a direction I wanted to see today. Even with deamp, they may just get weaker but not colder. If I end up wrong and it snows, I’ll eat my shoe.

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2.

I wouldn’t read too much into the 6th because I’ve noticed that the gfs (and other models) sometimes “copy” what the preceding system did before its details are even fully resolved.