Terpeast

Once Beryl clears out of the CONUS, ensembles are showing hints of the WAR/bermuda high re-flexing westward into the eastern seaboard. Hotter and possibly drier than normal conditions appear likely to continue as it has been. Beryl, and its remnants, seems to be the only chance we have for an area-wide drought buster in the extended.

Ha, I’m starting to lose count how many times I’ve hit 100 imby, today included. definitely at least 3 times, but maybe 4 or even 5? And it’s not even mid July yet

High of 99.7

Made it to 99.1 today so far.

93 as of noon imby. Ashburn

I’m in Ashburn, a bit closer to Leesburg than IAD

Sister lives in Houston. Sent her a text yesterday to warn her

Same, I’m not going to jack up my water bill trying to save the grass. Only the essentials - garden, dogwood and fig tree

Even worse shape at 0.64” here since memorial day

Min of 77, wow

101! Hottest day this year

99.3 so far. Getting close to 100, but may fall a bit short. HI is another story. Max 113 edit: spoke about 5 minutes too soon. Hit 100 just now

98, HI 111 Best upgrade to a heat warning westward to rt 15 and eastward

If this drought doesn’t abate soon, we should start getting concerned about wild fires especially in down-sloping conditions.

92/76, HI 105. Already touched 94 for the high

Did someone throw a bucket of water on the temperature sensor?

Without any decent analogs in the running, and in a warming world with off the charts marine heat waves off Japan, I’m thinking that maybe the analog strategy isn’t the most ideal one to apply for this coming year. Maybe raindance is onto something with his alternative strategy. I’m just not familiar how to apply this in practice.

The “flavor” of this summer has already revealed itself. It’s gonna be a long, hot and dry one. This morning’s LWX AFD if you read to the end: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging is forecast to persist over the northwest Atlantic Ocean while broad troughing slowly drifts east over the central CONUS much of next week. This pattern results in several weak surface fronts drifting into the area and washing out, with daily low-end chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Without a more obvious large scale feature, the prospects for any widespread drought busting rainfall look rather slim.

0.08”

That describes mby as well.

Yeah, that's true. While last winter was the best chance for an east coast KU, it was also the best chance for a 72-73 repeat. It just so happened that the latter did happen, except with a different monthly flavor. I agree with you in that I wouldn't say that last year's nino was acting only like a moderate. It was strong, and it showed in the STJ. The only time the STJ weakened or shut off was that January -EPO period, and ironically, that got us snow in the MA.

Low of 57

The only way this could possibly work is for the aleutian high to amplify NEward into -epo like it did in the middle of last January. Which ironically wasn’t driven by the el nino because there was no STJ for those 10 days

Perfect morning with a chilly breeze. 60s

It does seem like that kind of summer. Hot and dry most of the time where we routinely blow past 95 like its nothing. Doesn’t seem like the pattern will change anytime soon.