Terpeast

Another way we could get some help is an -epo block that happened in the middle of Jan. It was short lived so this plot has some noise, but we can see the cold air dumping into the CONUS. One pathway to this happening is the aleutian ridge pushing poleward through AK, which can occasionally happen in La Ninas. The biggest irony is that this wasn’t driven by El Nino. This was the only 10 day period when the STJ all but quieted down this winter. If I remember correctly, the MJO was in 3 before this pattern aberration occurred (and went onto 4-6 driving record warmth after the two MA snows). Your Jan 2022 scenario and this one are just about the best short-term wintery hits that we can hope for south of 40N in this coming winter, imo

99 for the high. I keep blowing past forecast highs due to dry ground

If this were winter...

93/71

87/72 here

Where are you hunkering down, specifically? I know you flew into Houston, but the eye is well west of the city Stay safe! Watch for broken glass and downed power lines. I lived through Ike in 2008, and it was… intense.

One could actually argue that the MJO was in 2/3 when the upstream conditions led to the storm.

Reached 97.5 for the high today, overperformed on temps but not on humidity

Once Beryl clears out of the CONUS, ensembles are showing hints of the WAR/bermuda high re-flexing westward into the eastern seaboard. Hotter and possibly drier than normal conditions appear likely to continue as it has been. Beryl, and its remnants, seems to be the only chance we have for an area-wide drought buster in the extended.

Ha, I’m starting to lose count how many times I’ve hit 100 imby, today included. definitely at least 3 times, but maybe 4 or even 5? And it’s not even mid July yet

High of 99.7

Made it to 99.1 today so far.

93 as of noon imby. Ashburn

I’m in Ashburn, a bit closer to Leesburg than IAD

Sister lives in Houston. Sent her a text yesterday to warn her

Same, I’m not going to jack up my water bill trying to save the grass. Only the essentials - garden, dogwood and fig tree

Even worse shape at 0.64” here since memorial day

Min of 77, wow

101! Hottest day this year

99.3 so far. Getting close to 100, but may fall a bit short. HI is another story. Max 113 edit: spoke about 5 minutes too soon. Hit 100 just now

98, HI 111 Best upgrade to a heat warning westward to rt 15 and eastward

If this drought doesn’t abate soon, we should start getting concerned about wild fires especially in down-sloping conditions.

92/76, HI 105. Already touched 94 for the high

Did someone throw a bucket of water on the temperature sensor?

Without any decent analogs in the running, and in a warming world with off the charts marine heat waves off Japan, I’m thinking that maybe the analog strategy isn’t the most ideal one to apply for this coming year. Maybe raindance is onto something with his alternative strategy. I’m just not familiar how to apply this in practice.