Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Ukie misses DC like the CMC
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Gefs actually trended wetter (snow hole notwithstanding, that’ll probably be gone next run)
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I didn’t want to say anything, but AIFS verification scores have been beating both op gfs and cmc
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I think the ~1060 high is really overdone. Wonder what it will look like if its 1040 instead
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TPV over minnesota and coastal off FL
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Clearing out eastward at 93
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Snowing decent at 87
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Sfc still looks like 18z
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More separation between streams at 78
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A tick more separation between tpv and ss vort, precip a tick souther. Too early at 69h
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No major changes thru 60
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GFS running
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Sorry I get confused with the miller labels sometimes
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That’s what you were showing with your drawings on the NAM, right?
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If it’s changing that much, then it will continue to change more. This isn’t final
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Without looking at the surface and just by these maps, I’d worry about it missing me to my north
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So… what did I miss?
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Appreciate your analysis as always. I hadn’t had a chance to dig deeper like you did (expecting company soon) and what you said does seem more promising that a SE miss could be less likely. Maybe the models will catch on soon, especially the ensembles. I’ll dig in some more tonight.
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Well I hope we both get double digits, but we’ll just have to see how the disconnect between the op and ensembles resolves itself in the next runs tonight and tomorrow
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I don’t expect us to get the jack this time. Probably to the SE of us.
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If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared.
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Relax guys. Shifts like these are to be expected this far out. If you’re looking for a 20”+ HECS, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.
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Sleeting in ashburn
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I approve of euro 12z
