Terpeast

@brooklynwx99 My best guess as I’ve said in another thread is that the pac jet was shoved northward by the marine heat wave off Japan. Physically it makes sense to me. Heights increase above that heat wave, jet goes over instead of under, and breaks up any aleutian low before it even forms.

Our best winter week this year was actually due in part to a La Nina-esque pattern with an aleutian ridge that nudged poleward.

Where was that? All I got was a flash freeze where I couldn’t even open my car door until I spent 20 minutes melting it with hot water. This Nino winter gave me 12 days worth of sledding and snowman-making days with my daughter. Had the time of our lives, and we didn’t even have to travel to see snow. Cue the Kevin shark tank meme…

I thought so, too, when I did my outlook. It looked as though the pdo was becoming less and less negative, and was sure the nino would win out.

Could the marine heat wave off Japan have anything to do with this? If it’s not MJO4, if it’s not EAMT, then what…? Thinking it through physically, it kind makes sense to me that the marine heat wave could be pushing the extended pac jet poleward so it goes over a la nina instead of under as it would in a canonical nino

It’s gonna have to snow early and often if we’re going to avoid another ratter. I’m talking between thanksgiving and new year, maybe first week of Jan. Then it’s lights out.

2022-23 was a modoki nina. This time we won’t have as much blocking as we did last year. As you said… I’m going to work on racking up points to get my family a free flight out west next winter.

As long as we have a background -pdo state, these canonical nino looks on weeklies shouldn’t be taken seriously. I want to see the pacific flip first, whenever that may be.

Usually starts late april early may, no? I’m overseas the entire month of April so I get to skip the most boring part of the year

I thought DMV was expensive, but VT isn't that much cheaper. Out west, same.

Awesome. Just ordered

Thanks. Should I spray before it rains, or when we have a dry forecast coming up?

Serious question. Have you considered getting a job in the ski industry? Not sure if it's viable because ski resorts are suffering all over and may not be hiring like crazy, but have you looked at those opportunities?

I was looking at that first circle over southern Vermont as well. Mainly checking Zillow for real estate prices (casually), but couldn't find a whole lot of listings that aren't down in the valley. Not that I'm planning to move in the short term - I'm staying put for now. There are more important things in life than frozen ice crystals falling from the sky... like friends and family, daughter gets to see her grandma once a week, etc. But if my mom moves out of the DMV, or daughter leaves the house after HS, or otherwise a strong reason for us to move, that's one area I'll be looking at. Or go out west. Only problem is... by then, I may be too old to shovel 3 feet of snow. Unless I keep hitting the gym and stay in shape and not allow myself to let go.

There was a centipede on my wall, and used a large sheet of paper to carry it outside. That thing was fast! I almost fell over because I had to sprint to the door. I dread the bugs this year...

I wonder what the max totals were in that storm. 18.7” at dca and 20” at bwi seem low given the huge impact. Maybe it was the rates and wind, and the element of surprise? Or was there a local max DC and Southeast? I know IAD only got 16” so they couldn’t have been anywhere near the jack.

Doesn’t look cold enough to me, but the Op is colder. Doesn’t rule out something interesting

Gfs op run at 12z is surprisingly cold at the surface [[moved from other thread so the mods don’t have to]]

I’m ready for spring, tbh. Just waiting until March 1 to grade my temp and precip outlook. If it snows in march I’ll take it, but if it ends up being 60-70 degrees then all the better.

2010 was a brief interruption of the negative pdo cycle when it briefly peaked positive. I thought this Nino would do the same, but the pdo stayed negative.

Bottomed out at 19. Surprised to see that some snow cover survived in my front and back yards

The “fly in the ointment” was extra strat water vapor from the HTHH eruption. This kind of eruption never happened before, and it was thought that strat cooling and a stronger SPV would occur as a result. But no one really knew. Maybe this was a competing influence vs the -QBO and propensity for blocking, resulting in these +/- back and forths. Just speculating

Yeah I saw that… brutal. I feel better about my 1.5” today where I am, instead of being practically across the street from that band

Hope it's alright! lol

Honestly I can't really complain. I'm at between 13-14" on the season and been able to go sledding half a dozen times with my daughter, with a couple of jebwalks while it was actually snowing. She's a weenie like me, and we have a great time together out there. Lots of father/daughter moments made. I couldn't say that last winter. Yes, I'm dissapointed that we didn't get a HECS, and this being a Nino year, we probably blew our shot at one of those and it'll likely be years before we get another loaded chance. But from where I'm sitting, I can't complain. Ironically, most of our snows came from nina-like northern stream lows. I'd be THRILLED if I got 14" in a La Nina winter.