Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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20.3 for the low
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21.6
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Yeah that’s a chilly look. Flow is fast, though. +nao keeps things moving along, but that in combination with the -epo also “fixes” the PV on our side of the globe (as opposed to the other side)
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26 and dropping fast
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Don’t look now, but new Cansips now predict a NN DJF for our sub. Previous run was a torch. Source: Eric webb’s tweet Old runs from TT:
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Yeah, even the ensembles are shifting. Too chaotic to get a good read on it.
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Your contest numbers are slightly more bullish than my own…
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Agree. More like U40s/L50s for the highs and lows around freezing or just below. Sometimes we can snow with that if well timed. End of GEFS run shows cold source developing even when we go mild. Wouldn’t take that long to get back into a colder pattern especially if it coincides with the MJO going into 7 and 8.
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Only 36 for the high
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To add to this, even if we go milder after 12/10, we still have a ridge over AK which should maintain our source of cold air. It's not as if the pac jet will ape and wipe out all cold air from the entire NA continent, like it did early last December and we had to wait 4-5 weeks until it finally reloaded.
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I'm sticking with my guesses. No changes...
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Euro and gfs (at least the ops) might be switching places. But this has always been a low confidence outlook, and I’m not holding my breath until we’re 4-5 days out, which takes us to next Tuesday-Wednesday. At least its cold and will be that way for a while. Reminds me of the 1980s when getting cold air was easy, but snow was hard to come by.
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Yeah, they’re seeing the same thing we are. Just a very low confidence outlook at this point. Let’s hope the gfs/cmc trends this morning converge and the euro caves.
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06z gfs phases the two pieces even more than 0z old run new run
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I figured, yeah. Lets hope it’s not just a blip, but a start of a trend. I think canadian has a compromise between the two camps
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Are you looking at that energy over Alberta/Montana? Its so chaotic its hard to pick out the individual pieces
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I see what you’re saying. It doesn’t have to completely phase, the NS just needs to dig enough to pick up energy from the SW. the CMC does it too. Euro completely misses by hundreds of miles, and then completely phases with a second NS wave. Drastically different solutions, very low confidence forecast.
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Looks like a huge bust for watertown. Weren’t they supposed to have 3’ otg by now?
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The key is getting that sw energy to eject early enough. Dec 8 or 9 will work, but dec 10 might be too late as the pattern relaxes
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However! The canadian ens shows 2 waves, one on 12/9 and 12/11… which tells me that geps is split between gfs and euro camps.
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0z CMC more similar to GFS than the Euro. Just a day later. Same with ens. The canadian has been doing just as well as these two so I wouldn’t sleep on the canadian.
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26
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Band is south of watertown, and it’s still above freezing (33-36) 31 and clear imby.
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To clarify your point, the dec 7 event gets quashed south but brings a lot of moisture up for the dec 11 event.
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Interesting run, yes. Mean is washed out, but there is a signal within. The op shows one of these possibilities
