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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Op euro probably on the SE side of the ensemble envelope, which means we can't rule a solution like that out. At least most members are more NW of the op
  2. Terpeast
    Again, it goes back to clearing the cutter outta here before we can hone in on a solution. Sorry I sound like a broken record saying this but it is what it is
  3. Terpeast
    This only increases the uncertainty even more
  4. Terpeast
    We know, but we've gotten rug pulled too many times to put that superstition to bed
  5. Terpeast
    All models have trended towards the euro except the CMC
  6. Terpeast
    Yeah, a bit east
  7. Terpeast
    Is that ukie trending further SE?
  8. Terpeast
    Think if euro/gfs both agree, we can safely throw out the cmc. And euro/eps has led the way on this. Lets see if this holds today and tomorrow if I’m going to start a thread, I’d start it on Saturday after the 0z runs
  9. Terpeast
    I don’t like the CMC solution, but it still seems unsettled with the h5 evolution. How has its performance been lately?
  10. Terpeast
    It would. I’m cautiously optimistic but not fully in yet.
  11. Terpeast
    If we actually get snow cover, we may get even colder than that
  12. Terpeast
    Liking the r/s line well south towards Richmond. Let’s hope this holds more or less the next couple of days. Good sign is that all models agree well on the cutter track up the midwest through the lakes.
  13. Terpeast
    Even moved closer to the coast while shifting colder (12z gfs op run)
  14. Terpeast
    Yep, its when they resolve when and how the cutter retrogrades into the tpv that we will know
  15. Terpeast
    I think the Saturday model runs will give us a better idea for the Mon-Wed timeframe. Until then, it’s all guesswork
  16. Terpeast
    Not a fan of how this guy makes his comparisons, but the cutter track has been highly uncertain even 48 hours out. This is why we shouldn’t bank on a certain track for 16-17 https://x.com/chasingwconnor/status/1745265130592424081?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w
  17. Terpeast
    I was going to say the same thing. I rather be on the northern fringe at 6 days out
  18. Terpeast
    Same
  19. Terpeast
    The big reason to consider discounting any of the solutions we’ve seen so far is that we still have to clear that second cutter before the models can zero in on a likely outcome. Until then, everything is low confidence and low skill. I don’t think the model runs tonight “failed” at all. If anything, they’ve picked up a signal that there will be a storm or two with cold air, plus some favorable trends.
  20. Terpeast
    @baltosquidbeat me to it
  21. Terpeast
    Gefs 4 run trend with precip
  22. Terpeast
    Gefs looks like 12z
  23. Terpeast
    Lol not gonna happen that far out, and even if it did it won’t hold
  24. Terpeast
    And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run
  25. Terpeast
    Trying to set up something at 198
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