Terpeast

Yeah, such a small difference in temps would result in a drastically different outcome. As said in the MA subforum, I’m working on a project to clarify what we can expect in future winters by adjusting historical analogs to today’s climate. I still need to get it across the finish line, but my prelim hypothesis is that we’ll lose previous 32-33F storms to rain in new climate, while other (colder) storms would be even more juiced. Feb 87 is the biggest “loss” because it won’t take much to flip the whole thing to rain all the way to the mountains. Otoh, pd1 79 and feb 83 would produce astounding totals if they happened today in a warmer climate. I’m talking widespread 30” with a 40”+ jackpot potentially

While we would most likely lose the Feb 87 paste bomb were it to happen today in this climate, I would roll the dice with 86-87 any day.

Same. I wasn’t supposed to hit 90 or above here today. Got up to 92

Up to 91 now

16z hrrr says what line? I think we’re pretty much done, save for an isolated tstorm somewhere south of here

Also I haven’t seen anyone mention the Feb 2006 storm. We may not have gotten the sheer accumulations like 96, 10, and 16, but it was memorable in that I stayed up all night to watch the storm unfold. Rates were awesome. Near whiteout conditions at the height of the storm

The 09-10 and 1996 storms aside, my favorite childhood memory was the 1987 double whammy. That marked the beginning of my weeniehood. My mom has pics of me in the 1983 storm where the snow was higher than me, but I was too young to remember.

0.10”

Hard to tell how much rain I’m getting because its dark, but the ground is wet.

Still a ways to go, but filling in from the SW nicely. Can this reach Loudoun? TBD

I see that too, and that redevelopment is also fizzling Edit: I hope you’re right as is nw balt, but I’ve gotten burned one too many times this season.

Radar looks like a DC split. About to get gapped again

Radar out west looks good and a flood watch is up. I want to believe…

91/75. Oppressive

Yeah, even though I didn’t get much rain imby, I saw a lot of very gusty winds. Likely over 50 mph. My toddler was spooked.

What more needs to be said?

4 cells around me, not a drop. Yet. very gusty winds, temps dropped to 82

93/70 ashburn. Temps overperforming as expected because its been so dry

Yeah I have mixed feelings. As much as I want a big winter here to break the pattern, ninos are really hit and miss here. Basically half really deliver, and half give us nothing.

I was never into today's chance. As soon as I saw a cell dissipate over WV/VA border earlier today, that confirmed it for me.

96/67

What about 1991-92? Although its pdo was neutral, it also had a negative qbo along with strong oni. Do you think we should include it?

91-92: neutral PDO, strong nino, negative qbo, VERY strong AO (reached +2 at some points) I think the strong +AO killed that winter. Worth noting Pinatubo erupted June 1991. Maybe it has something to do with?

Interesting how west of 95 has been much warmer than east towards the bay. Today will be the 10th day we hit 90+ out here, including 7 days in a row last week. Max 94. Might hit 95 today. Something to do with our local drought I think.

It really is. My wife and I drove through there to Deep Creek and the thought of buying a vacation home crossed our minds. That’s way off though, as we just bought last year. Maybe when the kids are grown.