Jump to content

Terpeast

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,370

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Gotcha
  2. Terpeast
    Last January's PDO was -1.25, not +0..23 not sure where you're getting that value from. Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
  3. Terpeast
    i think it’s transitory and not a big deal, on this run the -pna lasts for about a week or so. But its also one model run
  4. Terpeast
    Reasonable, and lines up with my outlook (which has the cold leaning a bit more SW) My only nitpick is him using the 1991-2020 climo on 1960-1990 winters. I would have used 1951-2010, but that’s just me.
  5. Terpeast
    Interesting, this is actually a nino pattern with active mjo 1
  6. Terpeast
    The way I read it is when forcing is centered on a location, it doesn’t mean that there will be mjo activity in that location wall to wall. More like it triggers an mjo wave at phase 6, then it propagates eastward through 7, 8, and 1. Unlike last year, the waters there are plenty warm enough so any mjo wave that propagates should stay strong instead of it hitting a wall
  7. Terpeast
    If I remember correctly, last month’s euro run had the lowest h5 anomalies over the south/SW, now this time it’s over the SE?
  8. Terpeast
    I’m less interested in the ONI number and when it peaks (hint- it’s not going to 2.0), but more interested in the MEI which is supposed to be updated today. This is what I based my outlook on.
  9. Terpeast
    Yesterday it was a -pna forecast through and through, and today half and half. The models are so volatile because of the ENSO/PDO battle that they really have no idea who’s going to win in the near term. Their guesses are as good as ours. Think this is what Chuck was alluding to - unusually volatile model forecasts.
  10. Terpeast
    Low of 30
  11. Terpeast
    Again, I think you and I have a different definition of what a PDO is. When I take a broader view of it instead of just NW of Hawaii (waters off the west coast US are also important), I have a slightly different mix of analogs that leads me to think that the SW and south will be cooler and wetter than normal, and the NE will be warmer than on your map. But for MBY, your map is consistent with my prediction of a slightly AN winter temp wise (1-2+ F above). I also have great lakes warmer than normal. So we have “some” overlap there.
  12. Terpeast
    Yeah, ideally I want my blend to match everything but this year it was difficult to find a good blend for it. That’s why I wanted to temper expectations that a year like 09-10 isn’t necessarily a great match despite it having commonalities within the factors I looked at. Sensible weather analogs is another good way to do it, but I’m not well versed in that method like you are. I have a lot to learn in that area.
  13. Terpeast
    Problem with a +pdo is if it is too extreme, the aleutian low would be too close to the coast preventing cold air from spilling down into the conus. Our best winters have happened when the pdo is closer to neutral, iow not too extreme in either direction
  14. Terpeast
    2nd image - thats a lot of snowpack! Cold air wont be an issue in jan-feb if that pans out
  15. Terpeast
    Think a lot of people will be more excited when they compare cansips with last year’s h5 pattern
  16. Terpeast
    He’s trolling ofc
  17. Terpeast
    I like how January looks…
  18. Terpeast
    Cosign, this is what I think, too.
  19. Terpeast
    26, colder than yesterday
  20. Terpeast
    Down to 33 already
  21. Terpeast
    Yeah, he always seemed to be playing from behind. I remember that during the Jan 1996 storm, we had about 20” on the ground and the snow lightened up in intensity. I was worried the storm was almost over, but Bob said “another 6-12 inches coming overnight”. Was doing the math in my head and thinking holy shit, I could get 30 inches!
  22. Terpeast
    I preferred Doug Hill over Bob Ryan. Ryan used to always downplay big storms and completely whiffed on Jan 25, 2000… while Doug admitted on live TV that he was “suspicious” that models were wrong about it going OTS.
  23. Terpeast
    Thanks MN. Yeah - I'm pretty bullish about our chances at reaching at least climo or above in our area. Still, a 10% chance is a non-zero chance. It can still happen. 1972-73 kept popping up in my analog research...
  24. Terpeast
    That's also a reasonable guess and could very well be correct. I'm just a bit more bullish than your numbers for north of rt 29 and the I-95 corridor from DC to philly. And yes, we had a dry October after a very wet September. Also I don't think the STJ really kicks in until December anyway.
  25. Terpeast
    One area, you mean within the MA forum? The mountains would be the easy answer. East of the blue ridge, I don't know. It's like trying to work out the exact location of mesoscale banding on a 384 hour storm this far out. We just have to see how the cookie crumbles...
×
×
  • Create New...