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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Same. I just moved back here a year and half ago. Even if it’s just 3” imby as depicted by the NBM, that’ll be my first good event as well.
  2. Terpeast
    From 12/29. Let’s see how they update this map though
  3. Terpeast
    Was hoping to see some sort of update from LWX in tonight's AFD, but not much changes there. I don't envy their jobs right now, but I do admire their restraint. They haven't blinked.
  4. Terpeast
    @psuhoffman called it. Said the GEFS was wrong, and here we are. Still 300 hours away, but all the majors are in agreement on the LR pattern
  5. Terpeast
    Same. The high looks to be in a better position
  6. Terpeast
    No, I was seeing the same
  7. Terpeast
    Yes, a bigger phased system would only have worked with a block that holds the 50/50 low down and keeps cold air close by. But for marginal in situ airmasses without a block, a weaker slider is what we usually want. Sure, a very dynamic storm can and has dropped heavy snow with big rates in a marginal airmass but that tends to be the exception
  8. Terpeast
    Could just be the thing that helps us keep “just” cold enough air west of i95
  9. Terpeast
    Just by looking at this, it seems like the 18z gfs is depicting a completely different synoptic setup than any of the previous runs.
  10. Terpeast
    Looks like I’m gonna have another model analysis session tonight after this 18z gfs run. Am with the kiddos for now, but I’ll be popping in here to check on things
  11. Terpeast
    Maybe. If the trailing wave merges with the one we’re looking at… holds it back a bit. I guess it’s possible if the NS wave strengthens more and gets us a refresh of cold air. But can it be done in 4 days? If we had 6-7 days to make it happen, it’s possible.
  12. Terpeast
    While I'm really disappointed in the Jan 6-7 system (I started seeing the red flags yesterday with weakening confluence), this upcoming pattern - if it pans out - will have stronger confluence up top and a slower pac jet. We won't have trailing shortwaves mucking things up if/when we have a good one on the way.
  13. Terpeast
    I don't think it matters at this point anymore. Maybe root for it to start at night after temps drop
  14. Terpeast
    Back to where we were on the 31st, but still better than on the 30th. Do you have the same charts for IAD?
  15. Terpeast
    I noticed a trend where strorms look stronger at longer leads and then become weaker
  16. Terpeast
    More like, its the end of the first quarter and we’re down 14-3. We did get a field goal on Dec 11. Still plenty of game left
  17. Terpeast
    The r/s line was too close that any north trend would kill it
  18. Terpeast
    In the h5 charts I posted earlier, there were huge 500 mile swings in the western trough behind this system's wave. There's no way that detail has been nailed down yet.
  19. Terpeast
    Even a 20 mile shift in the right direction would change everything, and we won't see it until close to game time. That's if the r/s line stays where it is and doesn't continue trending north.
  20. Terpeast
    Great analysis, and that's what changed in the last couple of cycles.
  21. Terpeast
    I don't usually go into the panic room, but... *sigh* Oh well, back to work
  22. Terpeast
    I-95 west is not out of the game yet. Maybe we won't get an all-snow event, but we'll see how the mesos handle the thermals going in. A lot of the time, they bleed colder than the globals the closer the event gets.
  23. Terpeast
    How the models shifted on H5 GFS: GEM: The Euro had an opposite shift from yesterday's 12z to today's 0z. I'll let you guys make your own interpretations.
  24. Terpeast
    Oh I wasn't even looking at the snow maps. I was looking at h5 and slp tracks
  25. Terpeast
    If you must look at the ICON, 12z is almost identical to 0z.
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