Terpeast

By the time the MJO runs its course through 4-6, it’ll be late Jan. If it doesn’t reload back at 4, we still have a chance. But with that rug pull on tomorrow’s storm, I’m not so sure about above normal snowfall this year. Could still happen with 1 well timed wave with just enough cold air. We do have that STJ going for us.

That’s what I was saying the other day about the MJO. We don’t want tropical convection too strong in the MC.

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago

Reading between the lines, could be 0.5-2” just east of 15 but west of IAD

From LWX Winter Storm Watches remain in effect along and west of US-15. Snow totals also increased a bit for the higher elevations of northern MD, particularly along Parr`s Ridge where the Winter Storm Watch was expanded into Northern Baltimore County. A decision on whether to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning or Advisories will be made later this morning. Advisories are expected to be issued today for the tier of counties east of the current watches. Ice accretion amounts up to two tenths of an inch are possible in parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central VA, including the Blue Ridge, with a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible elsewhere in the Watch area. Snow/sleet amounts will vary, though looking at 4-6" along and northwest of a line from Spruce Knob to Winchester to Westminster. Between that line and US- 15 snow/sleet amounts could vary between 1-3". Between US-15 and I- 95 in Virginia, and east of Parr`s Ridge in Maryland snow/sleet amounts between a trace to a couple tenths of an inch.

Dipped to 19.4. First sub-20 this year

20.1 low

LWX did up my high end potential to 4” as the 90th percentile. Before it was around 3-3.5”. Can’t complain about the 18z/0z trends Still thinking 1.5-2” before flip

I hope the gfs isn’t right, but it did get colder at the surface.

And if this is the snow depth, I’ll take that 2”. Its enough to cover the ground and build a snowman with my daughter. Then when it flips, we go back inside and have a hot chocolate

Thats what I’m hoping for - that the neg AO blocking overrides the MJO and gets cold over us, and when the cold relaxes, we get into the favorable mjo phases and keep blocking up top

37/21. Feels like a normal winter day

Is it like that for 3k too?

A degree or so in F is noise. Nothing has changed today. Still time to bleed colder and the mesos can catch that better than the globals. Also, higher thumpy qpf will help, not hurt. 18z is a bit lighter than 12z

Best if we scoot through 4-6 as a weak wave or inside COD and reemerge at 7, then we can hunt for big dogs. Most biggies start as a wave in the N Pac while the mjo is at 7. Could be early Feb

I think they’re hedging on either 5” snow or 0.25” ice. The latter more likely further south. But this doesn’t scream ice storm to me

Check LWX. Hoisted watch for west of 15 I’m just a few miles east. Likely going to get an advisory closer in

Just checked, its a smidge better. Probably noise

Mild just 3 days then cold, if going by that op run This is the kind of warminista cherry picking that really grinds my gears. A lot of that goes on in the NYC forum (not naming names)

Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. For now…

Both sides of the same coin. No blocking and too fast pacific

Why are we even looking at op runs 10 days out? They couldn’t even get it right at 5 days for this Saturday’s storm

12/11: 0.5” 1/1: T 1/6: 0.2" (sleet/snow mix)

12Z nam gives me 3-4", which I think is the boom scenario for mby. Bust would obviously be a mix to rain scenario.

LR looks good, but I’m worried about the MJO trending stronger in the warm phases. I hope that’s wrong, but if it isn’t it might interfere with The Look. We want it to stay weak enough.