Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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I’m up. 200+ new replies. It must be good! Just saw the ens maps - I love where we are sitting right now, and its now <84 hrs where the models are phasing the two streams.
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I’m gonna end this night on a high note and go to sleep.
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On 120, precip shield 100 miles north maybe more
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TT is crashing on me, so many people on it now. It must be good!
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102, almost an open wave
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Sw position trending east over last 3-4 runs
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More energy coming from the back, could open this thing up
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Hr 60, TPV a bit weaker
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Very early but the sw off CA is trending less closed. We’ll see how that goes
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I’m thinking Thursday if california field offices launch their balloons on time as per usual or maybe earlier if noaa sends some flights off the CA coast
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Like I said, it’s rarely that easy. I still think there will be a reshuffling when upper air obs get better sampled as the sw enters the conus
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It’s the ICON but i’ll take it. Can’t complain about its trend (more like a big shift). Let’s see what CMC and GFS does next. I think the latter will remain stubborn haha
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I like that the sw has only one closed isobar instead of three. Much easier for that NS wave behind it to open it up and eject east
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Nice, that’ll keep our chances coming.
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I’ll take it for sure.
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And think about it - if we had no AI models at all, just the good ol gfs and euro, we’d be excited about a potential 4-8er.
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If it ejects while we have cold air, sure. But even that’s not a guarantee in an el nino winter.
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Cliff diving after the drunk uncle tumbles would be hilarious. Its depiction is like my analogy of two field goal kicks colliding right in the middle from 50 yards out. It’s that hard especially in a nina winter.
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Good catch. Like the op gfs, gefs is playing the tradeoff game
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After the big mood letdown, I went and checked which models have been performing best at 500mb at 96-120 hours. AIFS ensembles and AIFS op hold the top 2, with EPS being a close third. Op euro in the middle of the pack, as is gefs. Op gfs at the bottom-middle, same with op cmc. AI GFS no idea - hasn’t been scored yet
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18z vs 12z gfs had some tradeoffs. The sw vort was a step back, but the nrn stream vort dug more and heights rose more in front of it, plus the high weakened by 4mb shifted NW. so thats another path to a minor win here while S VA and NC get the max.
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18z aigfs now looks more like the 12z euro
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Great post @SnowenOutThere. I also want to highlight how incredibly difficult it is to get a perfect clean phase. Like two kickers kicking two separate balls from opposite sidelines at the 50 yd line and have both balls collide in the middle between the fg posts. That difficult. So a messy imperfect phase or a slight miss is much more likely, which should still give us some snow if not too suppressed by the TPV over canada.
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I’ll say the same. I still have photos of myself with my dad standing next to 8 ft snow drifts by our house after the blizzard of 96. Now I get excited for snow not just to scratch my own itch, but to share those special moments with my kids.
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Looks like an erroneous run because I don’t think we ever see that much cyclonic vorticity like this off the Baja coast (unless it’s a tropical cyclone)
