tavwtby

let's keep em coming, I'd like more than a couple inches

that was a great run, better for eastern areas than imby, but still good nonetheless... my favorite stretch, again parallels to this season ytd, was 10-11, where boxing day started an epic Jan that had my roof with just shy of 40" at one point, roofs collapsing everywhere too, I had to dig a trench for the oil delivery and by the time I got to the street it was over 6', because the blowing and plowing throwing up on the front lawn, but I remembered seeing almost like rock formation, where you can see each storm level like digging for fossils, crazy stuff

which station does the whole SNE snow map, ALY and OKX only do their forecast areas and I'm having issues loading it, if someone can throw that up would appreciate it edit I got it to load

had Woodward on Xmas eve for the first time, excellent and smooth..BIL is a liquor vendor, got a bottle for my 1-3 Fri!

you know people are itching when we're nearly a week and 100 pages deep on a 1-3/3-6 event for SNE... we're all praying for last minute changes I'm sure but I think we can lock this in now... although kinda had a feeling this wouldn't be the one we thought from go, but still have some time to correct west and amp some more I suppose, onward to mid month!

NAM seems to be an outlier here, seems like every other model is showing decent surface low placement and H7 looks good to me, even on the 6z nam through 48hr, no?

after 0z will be more confident in anything, always wanted to wait until 48 out before lock, too much waver, as it's sampled more, if we still have this look tomorrow morning, I think we're good, better east, but still all SNE gets plowable imo

looks a little more progressive, or am I reading that wrong

the wfh crowd, at least in my job, could have been doing it all along, and in my opinion the worst thing that could have happened, now they get to work with nobody watching what they do, and they take advantage, I think the only time I've not gone to work in snow was 93, and that was because they shut down... my job requires hands on, and I love going to work, despite travel, was it 12/07 that got us stuck for hours on 84? 3-6 shouldn't be a big deal for a commute especially when they put the treatment down ahead of time

I'd actually prefer an inside the BM track for mby, but that's just me, looks good region wide though for everyone to get in on some action

boxing day was the start of an epic run of roof collapse season and record roof rake purchase, iirc the lead up that season was similar with lack of action

thanks, as always very well articulated post and explanation, appreciate it.

I wanted an explanation on the GFS op v ensemble v mean, is the op run the most reliable, are there certain algorithms or parameters in common that make it the op, or is it simply the initial run and the other members are spit out in order, that's what I never knew and thought someone could explain... relevant to this signal, the GFS op is basically ots with the 7th, but has many members near the BM, so hence my curiosity.

and this is why we usually wait until the s/w or waves in question come ashore and get sampled more and into the algorithm, than trusting a KU at a range of 14 days, or even 7 for that matter, Wednesday runs will be the time to invest, hopefully clusters are still around the BM and SE ticks reverse course, but as history shows, being invested early can lead to let down and curtain closings... also curious why the GFS op shows basically nothing but Gefs shows a good cluster of members, is the op the initial run, a mean of members or the most reliable run? I've never gotten that, maybe one can explain it better to me, thanks.

funny you say that I was thinking the same thing, that does look like a monster slow mover...two weeks out

you can see the precip hitting a brick wall of dry air as it tries to expand, expect nothing from this, but congrats SNJ/MA

funny about this current storm and my likelihood of moving to north georgia, there's a WWA for the area I'm looking at planting flag, while we're hoping whale farts blow a dusting at us, thought that was funny

this is true

yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones.

plugging in the chicken water heater tonight boy, droppin like a rock...hens first night with big boy, Winsted made us bring him to the farm, funny thing is if we were still in Waterbury I'd be able to keep him, anyway at least it'll feel like winter for my birthday, that's a plus from the London weather we've had for a week...

Thanks, what I figured, seems to be a running theme with storms here lately, minus a few that were slow, cutoff, retrograde storms, it seems most out coastal storms are like 12 hr blitz types.

pick somewhere in the middle, and we all enjoy the fun somewhat... I'm not wholely bought in until Wednesday, but I believe this one has the most going for it than the others, and for some time now it's been a sig, so we do pray... Will, are we looking at a phase cutoff here or Nrn or srn dominant? hard to tell at this point...

so I can't see the full Euro, but TT is showing the Op cutting and ENS showing a LP south of SNE, how confident are we about the 7th threat at this range? heights look good too, looks legit to me, again, a week out so we'll have to see how the week goes, but would be nice to see something before I head south mid month to start new vocation.. where it's like 60/70 degrees daily it seems.

it's winters like this, where we don't really have any pack until, for me anyway, mid Jan, where the longer into the season, the more I'd be happy with just a big one or two and forget the pack... I think in order to make a run at pack depth, you need a good Dec and decent cold to stick around... even if we had a foot on the ground starting on Xmas, this week would have eaten it up by today, hopefully the 7th doesn't do what the last 4 storm threats have done and turn 40 and rain, this weekend was supposed to be something a week ago and now look... sucks for snow lovers but congrats nne, at least you guys are getting something, I'm sitting at 5", and half that came in Nov when I was in florida.

are we going to play the storm sig a week out, only to cut or marginalize airmass our way to 32.1* RN?? it seems to me that the model guidance has gotten worse over the years not better, and even looking at real time teleconnectors, which one would say, are favorable for something to pop, it breaks down last minute and suppresses or shreds, or cuts...we all know that alot needs to align for a KU or MECS, but ffs, it's like the every single time meme lately... thought I would get my birthday storm on the third but that now appears 40 and rain, well there's always the next week, until we get to mid January and only really a few good weeks of solid winter. Think it was 3 years ago, we did this same thing, and finally got a good one in February, and another one late March iirc, but that was it, sorry just venting, want my last winter here to yield something significant