Eduardo

It’s hurting us some, but not “the most” IMO. The PAC is killing us “the most.” As Chris (@bluewave) said, some relaxation of the raging PAC jet might actually have allowed us to harness the ATL-side block to our advantage. This has been the PAC story for a few years now though. FWIW, my amateur view continues to be that we might get enough of a temporary respite from it to score something this winter and that it’ll cycle downward some over the next few winters. The worst is behind us, in other words.

I don’t know if it’s a “vast majority,” though the ones who showcase their biases on here (who, don’t get me wrong, I love) tend to be ‘louder,’ more frequent posters. I definitely hope for tundra-like cold and snow during the winter. 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were the glory days for me. But I also have been incredibly bearish on any such fun over these past few winters. This year, I thought we’d have some periods where the PAC would cooperate and, objectively-speaking, I think it’s safe to say that this upcoming mid-January period offers more potential than we’ve seen for quite awhile. I wouldn’t be surprised to have to close the shades again come late January or early February, but that still a ways out.

Eh I think that could work as a serviceable “Mexy” setup even to the coast. The Aleutian low and -EPO is what has me paying the most attention since the PAC has ruined all things holy during these past few winters. Best look I’ve seen in a few years though. I def have more confidence in this than last year’s Feb rugpull. Still a ways out though, so not worth focusing on the deets this early.

For what it’s worth, I measured 0.9 inches on Roosevelt Island this AM which, combined with last week’s event, brings the seasonal total to 2.9 inches. No idea what CPK will do and, to be honest, I’ve long stopped considering that measurement. Close enough for the 3-inches-in-December-Niñas rule?

Just went two weeks ago. Place is a snow lover’s dream! Have fun and eat at Jimmy’s!

Oh by that, I meant the “surprise” blockbusters that pop up within 48 hours!

Yeah I was out there for it and can confirm this. I also loved how the models didn’t really pick up on it until we were inside 48 hours or so. I remember having my attention trained on a PNA spike that was necessary to steer it toward the sweet spot. No idea how long it’ll be until we have storms like that again. Hopefully it’s within my lifetime.

I would take the mood flakes and run in a heartbeat. I think that’s the best it’ll get in this pattern, unfortunately.

Yeah we are all feeling it, though at least we’ve had some cold this year rather than the persistent wintertime swampiness to which we’ve become accustomed these past few years. I actually think we are near—if not slightly past—the worst of the famine though. Although I generally am in the camp that, over the long term, the trend is toward lower average snowfall, I think we snow lovers have some better times ahead over the next few years—and maybe even some favorable periods this winter if things shake out the right way—as we hopefully finish up this “downward spike” in seasonal snowfall.

NS-dominant patterns can work under some conditions, but not these. I wish I could get as excited about this setup as some seem to be. But, from what I see, this isn’t likely to deliver (let alone boost us over that magic 3” December threshold).

Thank you so much, fellow Bill Evans board OG . No doubt the coldest place I’ve ever been, but I absolutely love it. Also, just another reason to get cozy while inside. I would def recommend driving an extra hour north from Lake George to see it!

Thanks so much everyone! We’ve been up there a few times and it’s become our wintertime happy place. As weenied out as I was (it snowed almost the entire time we were there), I don’t think city folk like us could ever make the move—though I definitely understand the appeal. Beautiful, picturesque town with some incredibly lovely people and excellent though. Can’t recommend it highly enough!

I’ll be thrilled to at least have it cold for Xmas, even if we can’t luck our way into some appreciable snow. Nothing worse than a true, balmy Torchmas.

2022 had and in-and-out cold shot centered around Xmas Eve IIRC. Regardless, if you’re looking for snow to the coast, this pattern ain’t it. I’m thinking there might be a short window or two later on in the winter though….

Got married on Saturday and am in Lake Placid for the week. If you like snow, consider visiting here!

Let’s face it, we knew this was coming last Xmas Eve .

Human psychology is a helluva thing lol. Singular model runs sometimes over-detect trends and then sometimes over-correct. The cold will almost definitely relax for the second half of the month, but it’s a good sign that we are seeing some this early. Also FWIW, I like the PAC look much more than I have for the past two winters. I think the 13-14 comparison is probably overstated, but unlike the past few years, I think we might get a few periods this winter where the EPO cooperates.

Mods can remove for off-topic, but I’m curious what you think has changed about it. To me, it’s the same, cheesy constellation of advertisements that, for some reason, I’ve always enjoyed watching since I was a little kid. Also, wasn’t it always on NBC?

I think that Chris (@bluewave) had some stats on this. There’s also a strong positive correlation between December’s AO and how that teleconnection plays out over the remainder of the winter, though I don’t know what impact, if any, ENSO has on that.

I used to really enjoy his enthusiasm 25 years ago when he was at AccuWx. But, even though I think he’s probably a decent person, he’s really just become like a cantankerous old uncle that refuses to adjust his views to new information. Given how seldom his hyped-up forecasts verify though, I wonder how he stays in business. He holds himself out as a consultant, but is he keeping his gig going with weenie subscriptions?

Oh no doubt about it! To be clear, I’m not in the it-will-never-snow-again camp. It will. But as an avowed retention snob who—perhaps sadistically—lives for any kind of cold during the fall and winter, things have been tough for me down here since ‘14–15.

Visiting you all from the NYC sub. I’m probably even more worried. Would love for it to at least feel like late fall here. After a decade of freakishly warm winters, I must admit, it’s actually starting to get to me a bit.

The Torchmas spirit we have all come to expect. Definitely a noticeable trend.

I mean, even if that were to happen (and that’s a big if), wouldn’t it be too little too late?

Me too, but isn’t it just a (perhaps weak) proxy for assessing other indices then? Even if it’s used solely for confirmatory purposes, why not just keep to the major indices, teleconnections, etc.?