I saw this posted elsewhere about MEI:
The MEI for May/June number just came out at +.2. Since 1979 and NO strong Niño was under +1 at this point. In fact, the only Niños that were lower than this year since 1979 were WEAK (79/80, 04/05, 06/07.)
Sooooo, unless some magic occurs real fast unlike anything in the past 43 years, we'll be lucky to see a moderate Niño according to the MEI.
Here's a link to Ninas/Niños if you want to see for yourself.
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
Just throwing this out since you guys know way more than me about this.