Jebman

We. Have. A. Winnah. You got that correct. This, will be a low-sun season unlike any other. DC is positioned to get demolished severely by snow this winter.

Meanwhile, in other news, Buda, TX just dropped into the upper 80s for average high temperatures. Today, 91/60 felt absolutely cool. This is what happens after we spent at least 7 weeks in the 100s with lows struggling to fall to near 80.

That might not necessarily merit a hotdog. Larry Cosgrove mentioned that late this year is a 2009 and also a 2013 analog. Remember 2009-2010 and 2013-2014? Those were both blockbuster blizzard years for the Mid Atlantic. We could not keep up with shoveling snow both those winters. You might want to stock up on hot dogs, lots of food, beer, billions of IPA's and whatever you drink to stay awake, because this late autumn and all winter you will be awake for DAYS glued to model runs, because of all the snowstorms that are gonna demolish Washington DC and vicinity. Nino is bringing moisture and tons of snow this winter to the Mid Atlantic. Western Maryland is literally going to get palisaded to death with unimaginable amounts of snow and DC won't be far behind. One snowstorm will develop a monster comma head that will shred DC to death with torrential snows then refuse to move away, and the conveyor belt will just bring in so much moisture, that the heavy snows will simply pile up. They will call this storm, the Day After Tomorrow blizzard. The term will be first coined up on this subforum. That jet is going to be a BEAST. Abnormally high SST's are going to cause storms to explode. There is going to be an ultraabundance of moisture. This is going to be an autumn and winter like no other.

What was that about my Texans? lol

2013-14 in the Mid Atlantic, anyone? Remember that, folks? When I still lived in Dale City? Larry Cosgrove made reference to late 2013, and I feel very happy about your chances for important snow events in the Washington DC Metropolitan Region! That season, 2013-2014, was one of our better snow seasons in northern Virginia! Cosgrove also mentions late 2009! Anyone for 2009-2010? I am your ETERNAL OPTIMIST for SNOW in the Mid Atlantic, no matter where I might actually live!

Nice. I should see that sometime in early December, lol.

Its hard to believe, today's high temp in Buda TX is ONLY 88! Its a shock! Used to be hitting the 103-106 range day after day after day!

Dale City was 76/55 DP 53 today. You are approx. 60/53 right now. Everything is right on track. It's full-on autumn in Northern Virginia already, and it will become chillier and chillier with time. You will be in troughs until about June 12th, 2024. You will see a TON of rain between now and November and then it will mix with and change to snow. Washington DC will have a White Christmas with crippling amounts of snow. Northern Virginia will get hit worse because of training thundersnows. NYE 2024 will be even snowier! Nino will bring many heavy snows to the Mid Atlantic. The southern branch of the jet stream will be a beast, it will be snow after snow after snow! There may be a few severe ice storms as well. You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

High today was 97 BUT we got thunderstorms, 1.75 inches so far, and possibly more rain behind it. We need it so bad. We crave the full strength, even SUPER, Nino leveraging the abnormally high sea surface temps to bring us a full-on, GeorgeBM-magnitude southern stream jet full of Pac and Caribbean moisture Palisading south central Texas with billion year all time rain tallies! I would not mind another Harvey, on top of south Central Tex for three weeks, dumping possibly three digit rain totals on us in 14 days, with a strong Caribbean moisture feed at the low, mid, and upper levels! I want that rainwater BAD! In other news, we got our running water back. Turns out it was not low aquifer water table levels. It was the PUMP. The pump got replaced. No more Muad'Dib for me. I'll trade it in for Waterworld any day.

I can hardly believe it. NO SUN at all today, clouds and a light north wind, and a HIGH OF ONLY 90! This is below normal weather! Normal high is 91. Its hard to believe! We got teased by a little rain, just enough to make us long for more. It was 90/66 that felt like 74/53.

There goes the neighborhood. South Central Texas will remain brown as a Thanksgiving Turkey well into 2024 then. I'd pay much higher taxes for torrential rain to get those aquifers back up!

Don't feel so bad, I got screwed right up the 8ss last night as several storms just died before they got to us. The well remains bone-dry, and we remain utterly waterless. Central Texas is normally a very dry place. Nino might not do much for us, but the mid Atlantic will get buried in deep snows this winter.

Ravens will get better and keep right on winning. They are gonna do well this season. You can take that to the bank. That's the cowboys and the hippies, And the Rebels and and the Yanks. -Charlie Daniels lyrics, lol Its gonna be an incredibly fun and entertaining season!

I am a Chiefs fan but I think the Ravens are gonna hit the Superbowl this season --- and WIN!

The heat ridge of Doom does not care if our average high temperature is 92. It hit 107 anyway, again. Yesterday it topped out at 104. Its hot as hellageddon out there. (Late edit at 859pm, it hit 107.) This is NO time for a jebwalk. I am feeling like Muad'dib as I trundle heavy five gallon jugs of water from way down the road. This ferocious drought has dried up our well. We might be playing the waterless game well into next year, even with El Nino. Even if its a record one, which it isnt. Dont move to Texas. This place is a hot dry waterless hell. Go to Cherrapunji India where they get ~1000 inches of rain a year.

Now that I reside in TX, I don't cheer on the Redskins anymore. I have decided I love the Kansas City Chiefs!!!!!!!!!!!!

North Virginia is gonna get hit BAD by snow! Texas needs serious rain really bad. Well has been dry and likely will be for months. This is a new experience for me, having to carry water like a slave from next door lol! Texas is running out of water fast! We are becoming the new California! Millville escaped the Texas Dust Bowl just in time! You guys might have to start calling me Muad'Dib! lmao But the Mid Atlantic will get plenty of deep snows this upcoming winter!

Look at this at Mammoth Mountain! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station STILL has some snow up there at 9600 feet, McCoy Station! That snow will make it to the new ski season's first flakes! Its only 54 degrees!

GEORGE BM --- I expect a follow up on your forecast that you posted at the top of this Banter Thread. Storm is getting stronger, probable Cat 4 Hurricane by the time it hits the Carolinas. Record rainfall imminent for much of the Washington Metropolitan Region. Storm will slow significantly and buzzsaw the coast horrifically. Many a weather enthusiast will be up all night and much of the following day watching the storm and trying to perform jebwalks in the teeth of the tempest.

LOL, but I could NEVER do a professional writeup like GeorgeBM. You guys ARE gonna get snow blizzards late this year and early in 2024. This winter is going to be a doozy for the Washington Metropolitan Region. That subtropical jet stream will be supercharged by the El Nino plus unprecedentedly high ocean surface temps. It will be a raging beast! The Nino will bring colder than normal temps to the Mid Atlantic, and snow after snow after snow will descend upon the Mid Atlantic resulting in multiple snowmageddon scenarios. The subtropical jet will rage and will be in full-on Beast Mode, because of the very high SST's. This is going to be a memorable winter for the Washington area. Some ocean surface temps have been in excess of 100 degrees off Miami, FL! Imagine what this is going to do for developing storms off the southeastern coast! Mix that up with cold airmasses moving south from Canada late this fall and you get instant wintry mayhem! Some places in Western Maryland will get Palisaded by snow rates! That subtropical jet stream will be a serious, serious BEAST!

Perhaps I should start one lol?

I absolutely love this, George BM! I look forward to it every month! You need followup assessments. This is great stuff and YOU ARE NO WANNABE forecaster. The National Weather Service should be feverishly taking notes! Hint hint, Millville Wx! On another note: Mid Atlantic is enjoying 72/53 weather right now. Autumn is arriving ahead of schedule in your region. Everything is on track. Progressively cooler and rainier weather will ensue, deepening gradually into chilly then colder weather, with phase change conditions first developing in November, earlier in the mountains. December will see snow in Washington DC, with a debilitating White Christmas and possibly a NYE encore. Some communities particularly in higher terrain may end up with a white Thanksgiving in 2023! The New Year will be devastating both in terms of extreme snows and in terms of Vodka Siberian cold. Weather will be troffy well into June 2024 in the East. This means YOU, Mid Atlantic!

Hopefully you guys can start getting some decent rain soon.

Its going to be a BIG WINTER, and frigid, with lots of snow. You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

It was 108 today. Then storms hit us with 55 mph winds that lifted a ton of dust. It cooled off to 90/68 but it felt to me like 73/53. The rain was farther east, but at least it cooled us down. It's been a hot hot summergeddon down here. Tomorrow, cool wave with highs only around 99. That's cool, after days of 105, 106, 107, and 108 for highs.