Jebman

Buda, Texas's average high temps fell into the upper 60s today! It's high time for about a trillion Texas keggers! MAJOR snow-filled frigid winter is still on track for the Washington Metropolitan Region this low sun season, as well as for the entire Mid Atlantic region! North Florida and Georgia may get into the snowy act as well, but the Mid Atlantic will be particularly hard hit by torrential snows, pivoting defo snows that just dont want to quit, strong wind piling snow all over folks' freshly shoveled driveways and walks, ridiculously intense thundersnows and very very frigid air values that will keep the snowpack around for weeks and weeks! It will get deep as Siberia! By now many of you want to know: Just what is it that Jebman is smokin'? You will all be smokin' it too, as you frantically dig not only out of several feet of snow, but also out of huge snow berms that the plow drivers gleefully piled right on all of your driveway entrances, while they scream BANZAI !!, Smokey and the Bandit style! I'll tell ya one thing: You all will NOT be smokin' cirrus!

Okay, I won't be the oldest, but pretty old. In addition to my GUT, I got a seriously bad KNEE from chasing miniature donkeys around. I KNOW when that weather is gonna hit, and when it probably won't. Sun is beginning to peek from between the clouds. Coast got plenty of rain. I suspect we were in a kind of dryslot. Some strong Nino we have here, lol. EDIT 545pm local time - We may have some shower activity moving in from the west. Just owning up. If we get those showers - My forecast for today was WRONG. I said no rain for today. Should not add up to much more than a 32nd of an inch though.

Mid Atlantic is still on track to get lots of snow in this, the 2023-24 Winter.

And, you know? I turned out to be CORRECT tonight, after all. Buda is in between two areas of rain. The back edge will be north of us in 5 hours. I have humiliated every forecaster in Texas tonight. Not only is it NOT going to rain into Tuesday in Buda at noon, it is not even going to last half the night! LMAO! I have almost NO education to speak of. I can't even type, let along spell correctly. I am poor, and will always be poor. I will die poor, I probably wont even have a proper casket. But I am the finest forecaster in Central Texas. I just might go to school for weatherman. I will be the frackin' OLDEST meteorologist ever heard of in the United States. We got just enough DRIZZLE, to wet the pavement. But for us, this storm is OVER! Different story if you happen to live in Victoria Texas tonight, 1-4 inches expected by late Tuesday. Radar trends show the main area of rain is sliding more east than northeast - and Buda is nearly out of the woods with this one. For us, little bit more drizzle then just cloudy and cool and I beat out every forecaster in the Deep South tonight. DAMN I'M GOOD!!!! Time and again, I go with my GUT. That, is better than the finest civilian or military education you will ever find! I have really got some SERIOUS, SERIOUS talent. EDIT at 1248am local time: The back edge cometh. Weather services all over still proclaim a 70 percent chance of rain tonight and tomorrow morning. Oh, NWS was spot on the money, the pavement got wet, but what happened to all that rain we were gonna get all night long and tomorrow morning? Huh? NWS made a slight error as to the amount of precipitation. We got a WHOLE thirty second of an inch! Thats a new South Texas RECORD for one day! <Rollicking, raucous laughter, went on and on and on and on> Oh, the precipitation slid east. NWS you need to start lookin out the damned window, and watch radar trends. This from a guy with practically NO education whatsoever! LMAO! I crack myself up so much sometimes lol! EDIT 3.15am local time - Precipitation continues to clear from Buda region. Forecast for our particular region was completely off. Rain is over with. There will likely be no additional measurable rain overnight or Tuesday morning in the daylight hours. 70 percent rain for rest of tonight and Tuesday morning in the daytime needs to be trimmed down to at least non categorical levels, say about 20 percent. Rain has developed well west of I 35 and well east of I 35, coastal communities have been and will continue receiving considerable measurable rain throughout much of Tuesday including daylight hours.

I have had green returns over my backyard for HOURS today and the column is saturated to death. NWS needs to get their damn RADAR fixed. Where. Is. The. Fracking. Rain.???? EDIT: Looks like the bulk of the rain will stay southeast of Austin throughout the night. Good chance of drizzle with about a sixteenth of an inch accumulation of water thru Monday night. Only 30 miles to my southeast, 1-3 inches of rain will fall with 2-5 on the Coastal Plains. Even with my leaky roof, I may be able to deliver tonight. It can handle drizzle without drowning me in my car from gushing heavy rain straight thru my roof. It's happened before. There is some kind of delineation line just to the east of I 35. It is similar to east of I95 in Virginia. We miss many rainstorms because of this mysterious line. It's kind of like the Klingon Anti Rain Shield for Texas. We can have yellow and red returns all night, and a saturated air column all the way up to the 50 mb pressure surface, and this shield protects us every time. I was really concerned I'd miss delivering tonight. I never went to school for meteorology in Texas, have lived here only FIVE years, and I got seasoned Texas weather veterans beaten down and humiliated many times. They emphasized moderate to heavy showers late this afternoon and tonight well into Monday afternoon. LMAO, go back to school, Texas mets. You guys were WAYYYYYYYYYYYY the hell off with this one. Wayyyyyyy the hell off.

We have a winnah. ***** In other news, Jay Peak Resort's 7 inches has edged out Palisades Tahoe for snow so far this season. All Palisades was able to muster was 4 inches so far. Even Mammoth has 5 inches natural snow.

Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort is OPEN! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/unbound-main-park Unbound is my fave place at mammoth. They are always blowing a gnarly amount of snow at night! They have 5 inches of natural snow and 10-12 inches of man made on the slopes that are open! Have you seen how frickin' BIG those snow guns are? About 15-18 feet tall and the gun itself looks to be about three feet wide! They dont fool around when it comes to makin' snow! If I had about fifty of those snow guns on my place here on a frosty 20 degree night, I'd have a couple feet of snow in no time! I'd be jebwalkin' and diggin' massive amounts of snow! Look at those skiers! Man that place is just getting started! Just wait til the BIG Pacific storms start smashing that mountain with massive amounts of snow! They'll get three feet of pow then face shots will be everywhere and the instructors will be going nonlinear!

Glad you all enjoyed it! We are gonna have to have a get together right here in the great state of Texas! We'll show you what authentic Texas BBQ tastes like!

I am glad you are better. A few of my Texas friends got the 'Vid, taste and smell came back after about 3 weeks. So far I have been blessed. <Knocks on wood>

Check out the ground on the 8200' scope at Palisades! Some of the snowpack has been shoveled away. I'd say that's at least 5-6 inches of fresh snow! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams Check out the Siberia Cam at Palisades! What a splendid sunset glow on all of that fresh snow, look at that snowdrift line all along the edge of the Abyss! They are getting a good start, and the Pacific Storm Pipeline is only just beginning to clear her throat. Gonna be a boom year for snow all up and down the Sierra Nevada!

Mammoth is really blasting those snow guns! Its 28 degrees out there and they are opening the slopes in only a few days! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/unbound-main-park In other news, Palisades has their base to base gondola in operation! This means when you purchase a ticket at Palisades, you no longer have to choose between Alpine and Palisades! You are free to explore ALL 6,000 ACRES of snowy splendor! You get TWO MOUNTAINS, for ONE TICKET! Get your season ticket and explore exciting adventures on the Palisades/Alpine Slopes! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/explore/gondola-experience

He's correct, except for one small detail. His numbers are conservative.

Its snowin' and blowin' big time up at Palisades! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades You wanna see snow? Go WEST, young man! Looks like at least five inches of fresh snow off the 8200' Scope! McCoy Station at 9600 feet at Mammoth Mtn is getting destroyed!! Even in the night, you can see those flakes falling! I bet they end up with close to a foot of fresh snow by morning! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station Sometimes the camera shows a light and you can see, McCoy is THE REAL DEAL tonight! They are getting HAMMERED! Mammoth is getting smashed so damn hard, they are makin' Palisades look bad! lmao Some angles on the main lodge camera, wow you can really see those BIG frackin' flakes falling, gettin' blasted sideways! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge I am so damned excited, I wanna scream it from the housetops like a MANIAC! This is gonna be a RECORD season for the western ski resorts!

WOW! LOOK AT THE 8200' SCOPE at PALISADES TAHOE!!!! Is that 8 inches of new snow I see??! WOOOOOOO-----HOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams https://blog.palisadestahoe.com/weather/rain-snow-monday-then-colder-nights/ Mammoth Mtn also got about 2-3 inches new snow today! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station

Today Dale City, Virginia's normal high is 58 and the normal low is 41. This average is Buda, Texas's normal temps for mid January. Its the reason we are still eating fresh tomatoes and fresh sweet figs even in mid to late December.

It will come back.

Wonder how many Faces that storm would merit?!

Palisades Tahoe to see SNOW Monday, 2-6 inches at the top, about ~7000-8000 feet! https://blog.palisadestahoe.com/weather/a-little-snow-for-monday/

Good analysis Terpeast. I think however that you are underestimating western MD for snow. Those communities will get Palisaded by snows.

Bank on this, it is gonna happen to the Mid Atlantic this winter! I'll be cheering all of you right on!

I am so happy for you all this winter, I want to shout this from the housetops, until I am hoarse!

Just wow! You are definitely NO wannabe, George BM! Two inches of ice accretion in N VA would not only be historic, but absolutely catastrophic. Not to mention all that snow and sleet/ice embedded within the snowpack. No power at all, freezing temps and essentially cut off from the rest of the world! Not having power and 34 in the house is no fun. I know. I dont want ice storms in south central Texas NO MORE. That much ice would produce structural damage and even big trees would simply snap. Houses would be bisected and cars crushed. I saw what three quarters of an inch of ice did to big oaks down here in Texas last Feb. We had a 16 inch branch snap right off. There were piles of branches all over Buda for weeks. I got the bajorkas worked right out of me dragging huge branches around. I'll tell you what I learned from that debacle: NO MAS. Never ever again. Ice on sidewalks and streets is no fun at all, especially once you get older. You could break your back just tryin to get the damn newspaper!

Larry Cosgrove mentioned that the upper air setup for this fall/winter has more than just a passing resemblance to 2009-2010. I remember all too well what happened in Northern Virginia in 2009-2010. Dale City had a ton of snow from multiple blizzards and I got to personally witness what 30 plus inches of snow looked like in Charles Town, West Virginia! Its high time to stock up on whatever it is you use to stay awake for days on end. You are gonna be on those models a hell of a LOT! This sub is gonna be buzzin! I can hardly wait! Mid Atlantic is going to get obliterated by torrential snows! George BM you are two days away from Nov 1! I'd like you to write up a storm sequence that smashed up the Mid Atlantic that makes The Day After Tomorrow look like a spring afternoon in Central Park! Lookin' forward to it!

First official low in the 30s! Already! It got down to 39. First official high in the 40s! Already! High today was a frigid 45! And our normals are 76/56! The winter of 2023-24 in south central Texas is gettin' off to a frigid start! We are probably going to have to contend with potentially a lot of ice, sleet and possibly snow accumulations down here in the deep southwest this winter! There is definitely going to be a ton of rain as the subtropical jet goes into full-on Beast Mode! We got nearly 6 INCHES of rain just in the past 7 days! Thats 34.50 inches on the year and normal is 30 inches of rain in one year! The grass and weeds are already way out of control and the back yard is a massive quagmire!

Saw lightning 3 times tonight. North winds continue along with light to occasional moderate rain. We have gotten another inch of rain tonight. Winds are running in the 20s with gusts to 42mph. Wind chills are in the mid 20s. We have gotten 5.7 inches of rain in the past week. Yard is a muddy quagmire. It is 39 degrees.