Jebman

Okay, probably not demolished, but you'll get rained on pretty good. It should be a drought buster. That buzzsaw to your south, it is developing additional showers ahead of it. You guys have a lot of rain to get thru today into tonight! Meanwhile in other news, where I am at it is 99/70 with a heat index of 106 lol.

That pinwheel in central VA is gonna baste some communities with a good amount of rain. It's spinnin' like a buzzsaw and loaded with torrential tropical rain. Someone is gonna get demolished.

meh !!!

Naso fast. You guys are gonna get Demolished this winter.

Nice shield of rain inbound. I am sooooooooo jealous.

Absolutely IMPRESSIVE! You sure have a ton of skillsets!

Medium to strong El Nino PLUS abnormally elevated sea surface temps. It's starting. Eastern Seaboard will get smashed BAD by recurrent rains throughout low sun season. Does not take very much to spin up one of these Ophelias, or just a casual low pressure system that gets going, strengthens off the warm Gulf Stream waters, and then conveniently slows down. The soils will get saturated. Everywhere. Then we will enter a brand new era, a time of near constant flood watches, near-constant flood warnings. Might need a new Flood Intensity Scale. When we reach the phase change weather, when it changes to snow, look out commutageddon, after commutageddon, after commutageddon, after commutageddon. You'll see a ton of fight vids on YouTube. People fighting over parking spaces, fighting in rage over plows piling 9 foot snow berms over driveway entrances. You might not realize this now, snow enthusiasts, but digging the wet snow is going to get tedious, especially when a little rain gets on it. The Nino will not spare. It will be storm after storm after storm after storm, floods in freezing cold winter weather, ice, and even more torrential snow. People not being able to get to work, people slippin on ice and going to the hospital, and the Nino plus abnormally warm ocean temps globally will just keep on piling storm upon storm. Pineapple Expresses and atmospheric rivers will have Gulf and deep Pacific connections and will just pile it on and on and on. Models are showing the Southeast gets the very worst of the Nino. Texas gets December, after that it shifts to the Southeast and rains and rains. All kinds of abnormal storms will crash into the Southeast and flood them to death, right into July 2024. They might even get demolished by snows in deep winter! They will have many chances to time storms down there.

FANTASTIC SUNSET PIC! I am jealous right now.

I envy you all the rain. I'd be happy with only an inch for mby, but alas I am too far WSW lmao

That subtropical jet is already gonna be a beast. Saw this on X. (Twitter rebranded to X back in April.) Western ski resorts are REALLY going to get unprecedentedly Palisaded this winter.

No chance in hell. They don't even tell the damn truth here in semi rural Texas.

You better believe it!

CoastalWx, you guys have been getting a LOT of rain this year. Imagine what that will mean late this fall when you get snow. You guys are going to be climbing out of fifth story windows to go outside. That supercharged southern jet in an El Nino year means business not just for the Mid Atlantic, but for everyone all up and down the coast! I forget which year it was, 2014-15 I think, when you thought you got snow. This winter will be like no other, all up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Don't forget those very high sea surface temps! Storms will hit the Benchmark and explode! You guys will get buzzsawed and whipsawed by commahead defo's, until you will believe you live on a West Coast ski resort like Alta!

We. Have. A. Winnah. You got that correct. This, will be a low-sun season unlike any other. DC is positioned to get demolished severely by snow this winter.

Meanwhile, in other news, Buda, TX just dropped into the upper 80s for average high temperatures. Today, 91/60 felt absolutely cool. This is what happens after we spent at least 7 weeks in the 100s with lows struggling to fall to near 80.

That might not necessarily merit a hotdog. Larry Cosgrove mentioned that late this year is a 2009 and also a 2013 analog. Remember 2009-2010 and 2013-2014? Those were both blockbuster blizzard years for the Mid Atlantic. We could not keep up with shoveling snow both those winters. You might want to stock up on hot dogs, lots of food, beer, billions of IPA's and whatever you drink to stay awake, because this late autumn and all winter you will be awake for DAYS glued to model runs, because of all the snowstorms that are gonna demolish Washington DC and vicinity. Nino is bringing moisture and tons of snow this winter to the Mid Atlantic. Western Maryland is literally going to get palisaded to death with unimaginable amounts of snow and DC won't be far behind. One snowstorm will develop a monster comma head that will shred DC to death with torrential snows then refuse to move away, and the conveyor belt will just bring in so much moisture, that the heavy snows will simply pile up. They will call this storm, the Day After Tomorrow blizzard. The term will be first coined up on this subforum. That jet is going to be a BEAST. Abnormally high SST's are going to cause storms to explode. There is going to be an ultraabundance of moisture. This is going to be an autumn and winter like no other.

What was that about my Texans? lol

2013-14 in the Mid Atlantic, anyone? Remember that, folks? When I still lived in Dale City? Larry Cosgrove made reference to late 2013, and I feel very happy about your chances for important snow events in the Washington DC Metropolitan Region! That season, 2013-2014, was one of our better snow seasons in northern Virginia! Cosgrove also mentions late 2009! Anyone for 2009-2010? I am your ETERNAL OPTIMIST for SNOW in the Mid Atlantic, no matter where I might actually live!

Nice. I should see that sometime in early December, lol.

Its hard to believe, today's high temp in Buda TX is ONLY 88! Its a shock! Used to be hitting the 103-106 range day after day after day!

Dale City was 76/55 DP 53 today. You are approx. 60/53 right now. Everything is right on track. It's full-on autumn in Northern Virginia already, and it will become chillier and chillier with time. You will be in troughs until about June 12th, 2024. You will see a TON of rain between now and November and then it will mix with and change to snow. Washington DC will have a White Christmas with crippling amounts of snow. Northern Virginia will get hit worse because of training thundersnows. NYE 2024 will be even snowier! Nino will bring many heavy snows to the Mid Atlantic. The southern branch of the jet stream will be a beast, it will be snow after snow after snow! There may be a few severe ice storms as well. You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

High today was 97 BUT we got thunderstorms, 1.75 inches so far, and possibly more rain behind it. We need it so bad. We crave the full strength, even SUPER, Nino leveraging the abnormally high sea surface temps to bring us a full-on, GeorgeBM-magnitude southern stream jet full of Pac and Caribbean moisture Palisading south central Texas with billion year all time rain tallies! I would not mind another Harvey, on top of south Central Tex for three weeks, dumping possibly three digit rain totals on us in 14 days, with a strong Caribbean moisture feed at the low, mid, and upper levels! I want that rainwater BAD! In other news, we got our running water back. Turns out it was not low aquifer water table levels. It was the PUMP. The pump got replaced. No more Muad'Dib for me. I'll trade it in for Waterworld any day.

I can hardly believe it. NO SUN at all today, clouds and a light north wind, and a HIGH OF ONLY 90! This is below normal weather! Normal high is 91. Its hard to believe! We got teased by a little rain, just enough to make us long for more. It was 90/66 that felt like 74/53.

There goes the neighborhood. South Central Texas will remain brown as a Thanksgiving Turkey well into 2024 then. I'd pay much higher taxes for torrential rain to get those aquifers back up!

Don't feel so bad, I got screwed right up the 8ss last night as several storms just died before they got to us. The well remains bone-dry, and we remain utterly waterless. Central Texas is normally a very dry place. Nino might not do much for us, but the mid Atlantic will get buried in deep snows this winter.