Dark Star
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Everything posted by Dark Star
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With a system this small, it is very difficult to pinpoint. It seems that for every storm, most are hung up on models as the final word. I used to enjoy when Jeff Berradelli used to give his post analysis on each storm and unravel each factor, stating that the "Devil Is In the Details", meaning most storms can be forecasted, if you choose which data is significant. In other words, in most instances, the information is there, you just have to find it. Sometimes the positioning of a high pressure system, a "kicker" way across the continent, 850mb RH. There are so many factors, but the key is to choose the right ones for each different scenario/storm. That is not me, but I would suspect there are a chosen few who do see the full picture. -
Been around since 1959. Snow around these parts ia always a miracle. Rain/Snow line can come into play, even when it is below 20 degrees.
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I understand how much further west Atlanta is from NYC, but they are still east of the Applachians, and a heckuva lot farther south than us to be colder than us.
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This is normally the outcome. Snow around the NYC metro area is a miracle. Without cold air, there really isn't much of a chance. With cold air, it is a crapshoot. Things have to align up almost perfectly. Too much development, not enough development, too late development, small swath dried up, near miss, locusts...
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Rule of thumb is they don't plow until we get at least 3 inches. They plowed in Garwood twice in one week after 1 inch of snow.
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Although, for all intents and purposes in central Union County NJ, it might as well have been over by 7 AM...
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I didn't call anything? Perhaps I was linked to another post?
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I wish I was in Canada then...
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1 1/4" snow here in GarwoNJ) and the town plowed, after salting twice. That's two separate OT for the taxpayers for 1" events. Unprecedented.
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There is precip moving over us, just not reaching the ground. It will take a while to break through...
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Only reached down to 24 degrees here in Garwood NJ, central Union County NJ. Not a heat island. More or less seasonable?
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Some snow showers at the Buffalo Bills football stadium. forecasts are for 8-12" tonight and then another 3-5" tomorrow? What if they played at the regularly scheduled time of 1 PM today?
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No squall here in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Just some moderate flurries at best. Radar showing rain, but we know how that goes...
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I was going by actual NWS forecast...
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I'm seeing upper teens? Maybe single digits in the usual icebox spots?
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Seems that the closer to the coast (NYC and immediate suburbs) that it is "drying up"?
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NYC metro is almost always on the "border" of either out to sea or the rain snow line. Without cold air, you really don't have any chance...
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I stand corrected. I didn't think the cold air was going to advect down and across as quick as it did. I'm surprised there is any cold air. Kudos to those who stuck by the 10 day maps. They have been foretelling cold air for over 2 years now, kicking the forecast down the proverbial road until the next 7-10 day period. Cold came down Canada so fast. I figured the Pacific air was going to "get stuck" in west central Canada for the rest of the winter. Hopefully any subsequent warmups are short lived, at least for a while?
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Trusted models? AI could be a good thing, especially when you can adjust for errors in the program say at day 3 and correct for biases. Might improve long range patterns? I would think the AI would correct for known biases, otherwise, why use AI? I would think no model would handle an anomalous event well? Or perhaps instead of AI, have human intervention adjusting at say, day 3 in a long range model to correct for a suspected error?
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Sorry, I was responding to the comment by LibertyBell. I replied with what I wanted, not what the recent progs are.
