MANDA

Walt, good to see you back. Everyone has missed you last several days!

Report from buddy in Toms River....12" as of a few min ago.

Not sure about 24"...but 18" seems certain for locations near and east of GSP. Band not making additional westward progress.

Intense band along Jersey shore having trouble making it west of GSP and looks like starting to pivot move N to S. Absolute of heaviest snow likely over west of NJ Tpk., north of 78 and west of 287. That is the absolute heaviest...still some snow left to fall those locations but north of 80 and west of 287 not much additional.

Just about over up here. Not expecting much additional accumulation. Snow shield shrinking slowly and being eaten up by dry air just NW of me. Ared expected to do well is doing as expected.

17 degrees here and 2.2" on the ground. Per radar the precip shield has gotten as far NW into NJ / EPA as it is going to get. Fighting dry air and a north wind. Spots that were targeted to do well are doing well. Radar looks good NJ shore up toward and especially east of the city.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Heavy Snow Disco from WPC. Sums things up nicely I think. Some of the posts in here this afternoon have been so negative. It is going to snow. There is still question as to where the western edge shaft zone is going to be but this has been in question for days. From coastal NJ to central / eastern L.I. really nothing has changed. This is a significant event. Need to watch this develop to get better idea where the <6" totals start and dwindle down west and north. So far this is not a walk the plank situation some are painting it to be. You have to get those Kuchera numbers out of your head.

Yup to this....except the part about "historic" numbers. Historic in my book are in the top 5 totals of all time.

That pretty much reflects what I'm thinking with some possibly locally higher amounts NJ coast and east end.

Could not agree more with this. I'm not changing the amounts I put out 24 hours ago based on what I've seen from 12Z guidance. It is coming down to nowcast time. Fire up you SPC meso link. I'll look at 18Z and 00Z guidance just because. This all coming down to final phase evolution. I don't agree with dual low solution. Going to be one consolidated center I just don't know when and where that is going to happen and track. 12"+ amounts still very much on the table eastern sections of CENTRAL and SNJ - up through central / eastern LI and up to southeast New England. Within that swath local amounts of 18"+ still also very much on the table for parts of easternLI and SE NE. Time to watch satellite, soon the radar trends, pressure and HT falls. Could this bust some, sure but there is still upside potential depending on sfc / upper air evolution. Wipe the Kuchera map totals out of your memory, they were never happening. Did anyone REALLY think 40"+ amounts were going to verify coastal NJ, LI and SE NE? WX/PT just did nice post on amounts and my thinking is pretty much in line with that. Maybe a shade lower. Matches up with what I thought yesterday morning and again stated here.

Remember 83 like yesterday. LFM was east of Hatteras. Obs late morning had southeast wind at Hatteras. High DP / moisture laden air mass being rammed into cold arctic dome. Progress of snow northward was painfully slow. Took 2-3 hours to get from Staten Island to Mid-Town Manhattan. Once it started it came in like a wall. Thunder snow lasted for hours. Intense rates with large flakes. Storm was weak...made it to east of ACY and turned ene OTS. Had 21" in Bayonne and that fell mostly in a 12 hour period. Different setup than this for sure but was a classic nowcasting situation.

Yes, especially the central to western parts of those counties. Unless changes as event starts to unfold.

Sticking pretty close to numbers I put out yesterday morning. NYC/Immediate metro: Yesterday 4-8" -> Now going 6 -10" Far NW NJ: Yesterday 1-3" -> Now going 2-4" West of I95 8" tapering to 4" starting along and north of 80 and West of 287 South and East of I95: Holding with 12-18" with the 18" amounts closest to the coast and central and eastern L.I. In general ratios 12:1 - 13:1 give or take. Maybe 15:1 northern and western edges of snow shield. Any changes will come from nowcasting as event unfolds. Currently very light snow with about .10" new snow.

I've given up saying it. Sometimes ya just gotta let it go.

Just shy of 2" liquid reaching CNJ coastal counties - around 1.80". SO SO close to delivering the goods to N and W of I95 but not there.....yet?

500 MB on NAM is STUNNING!

Looking at individual EPS members there are 13 of 51 that IMO are big hits for this entire forum.

Significant spread so close to event on EPS.

Just gotta love the loop and then slow pull away vicinity CC and the Islands. 18-24" - locally more with 50-60 mph wind gusts. Gonna be a sight to see up there. Euro has been steady now with 8-12", 8-14" along eastern counties of SNJ/CNJ up across L.I. Eastern LI could see 15-20" depending on how that capture eventually plays out. Amounts will taper NW west of I95 across NJ.

This could be epic for southeast New England. Rivaling the Blizzard of 1978. Full capture, loop and explosive development. All too late for most in this forum. Not expecting major adjustments at this point. This clearly is going to be one for the books over southeast New England. Coastal NJ will do well up across central and eastern L.I. West of I95 a moderate event. No changes to amounts I put out earlier this morning.

Individual members are lackluster to say the least as far as totals. Only one member is notable for bringing heavier snows into SNJ/CNJ....the rest are meh. Just pointing it out that the GFS has a ways to go to catch up to other guidance.

In limited hindsight at this point it was best to go with the Euro last several days because ensemble support was so strong and the model overall was consistent except for rather minor shifts, at least that was my reason for favoring it over the GFS. Would have been pretty rare for the EURO to do a complete cave with that kind of ensemble support. One could say the GFS has support from its ensembles, and it did but despite some recent shortcomings with the EURO it is still a superior model in my opinion and the skill scores prove that out. EURO and CMC are both ahead of the GFS in skill scores. Granted the OP EURO had some BIG solutions for NJ/NYC and they have been tempered as we get closer to the event but the overall signal from the EURO was far better than the GFS. That is assuming things remain on track next 48-60 hours.

Those totals over southeast NE are with winds gusting to 50 and perhaps 60 mph!

This could be crippling snowstorm / blizzard for southeast NE if NAM solution is close to reality.

Definite improvements on 18Z NAM. Does not do much to help us west of I95ers but much better look for bigger snows I95 south and east and across LI. Window is closing for western and northern areas for anything more than a minor to perhaps moderate event.