MANDA

Following the 1989 weather history over the last 2 weeks has been interesting. Was brutal for cold and snow across the country. Our area had the cold but missed out on most of the snow to the south. Big snows 12/23 or 12/24 for southeast coast if I remember the dates correctly. Once to January winter was essentially over for our area as it warmed big time. Remember the 2009 event well. Remember when Winter storms would lift north out of the GOM, been a long time.

Time will tell and we'll know soon enough.

That is a one day snapshot at PERHAPS the end of the warm period. Poor example of what is coming between Christmas and New Year's.

Looks like the usual in and out Arctic shot (about 60 hours worth before moderation commences) in the days before Christmas. Looks like everyone has a different definition of what a "torch" is but it sure looks like a torch to me starting 12/27 or so and lasting through New Year's Day at least. Canada looks to get flooded with Pacific air as does the lower 48 starting over the Rockies then working east once past Christmas.

Received 1.8" snow here overnight into this morning. Came down pretty hard in the hour or two before 5am. The 1.8" was measured at 5am, it has compacted down to about an inch as of 10am. Total for the season here: 8.3".

The days leading up to Christmas are going to be cold. The last CMC was extreme and not likely but I'm pretty confident it is going to be below normal as we start Christmas week. Can't keep paying attention to flip flopping guidance. Pattern is supporting a cold run up to Christmas. Snow is another story, not likely. For the record, something as cold as last CMC run is not entirely out of the question. The degree of how cold it turns is uncertain at this point.

Only good thing is that it looks solidly below normal in the days leading up to and through Christmas, that seems like a lock at this point. At least no balmy 50's - 60 with rain. The pattern the following week looks nasty though, that is a little further away so we'll see but better than 50% confidence for a mild run up to New Year's. Seems very unlikely to me that CP will see any measurable from now through the end of the month. We should be grateful that December looks to finish below normal temperature wise. That is a big win these days.

Summary of November and Meteorological Fall 2024 for NJ. https://www.njweather.org/content/peculiar-indeed-november-and-fall-2024-recaps

Some of the coldest lows across NJ this morning. Low was 14 degrees here.

Any idea what the temperatures were like with that. Was that one of those frigid early 80's outbreaks. I have a feeling it must have been major cold as in the vodka gels.

There was no movement in the Drought Monitor issued yesterday but the most recent rains were not figured into it. Should be some improvement in next weeks issuance. These are some nice 3 week totals.

Not at all unexpected. I do admire the optimism around here though.

Very sarcastic.

I used to doodle maps like this op run when I was in the 5th. grade!

Shit. Heaviest totals once again to my southeast. Dammit! I was hoping for at least 30" here.

Winds howled here last evening once the front went through. Briefly lost power. Gusty all night and still gusty this morning. Much winder behind the front then out ahead of it yesterday around here.

1.2" yesterday. Two day total = 1.82" Three day total = 2.21".

Rainfall yesterday was 1.2". Three day event total = 2.21".

More heavy rain approaching my area from the west.

Pouring here with winds gusting to about 25 mph. Rain pelting against the house. Based on radar it is not going to last long but right now it is heavy.

Just posting story link here since others have posted that they have seen the drones. I've not seen any. Interesting. Seems far beyond just hobbyist drone flyers. Not sure what is up with so many flying around. Feel free to remove if too far off topic. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14181799/drones-new-jersey-state-emergency-ufo-ocean-sighting.html

Skinny "squall line" about ready to push through my area. Expecting some heavier rain and some gusty winds.

.62" as of 8am. Two day total = 1.01". Winds minimal. A few gusts to 20-25 mph.

Nope. Wouldn't be shocked either if the next op model cycle looked nothing like the current one. 10 day OP runs are bad enough and now we have added the EURO going out to 15 days along with the GFS. Pure fantasy. I'm all for pushing the limits of science but these 10 and 15 day op runs are essentially useless. The ensembles are better but even they flip from cycle to cycle a lot of the time.

Key here is "keep your expectations low" Not saying there can't be a few surprises but I'm not seeing anything right now that is offering a prolonged BN temperature regime or a favorable pattern for east coast snowstorms. Again, a few well timed systems with cold air could certainly deliver. Overall though the pattern is looking similar to the last several winters.