MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Latest Drought Monitor. Abnormal dryness and drought continues to expand.
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Just really impressive to see model cycle after model cycle with little or no precipitation for 10 day periods. Only a trace here (on two days) for the month to date. Just so dry. Will be interesting to see new Drought Monitor release tomorrow.
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Some min temperatures:
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Not that anyone puts any credence in a 378 hour GFS prog but just to see something that dry especially at this time of year is quite impressive.
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This cool / chilly weather is great. The dryness is getting beyond annoying.
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That high latitude block during all of September really meant business. Looks like another week without meaningful rainfall. The chilly incoming air mass will be nice though. Fall foliage around my area is really starting to peak now. Nicest color I think I've seen in several years.
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Gave in and fired up the furnace this morning. The cat, Amanda "Manda" heard the furnace click on and took off to her favorite heating vet! The breeze was pretty brisk all night and that kept the temperatures from really dropping here on top of the hill. Low was 39. Was much colder in the usual NJ cold spots.
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Latest Drought Monitor showing the dryness and drought gradually expanding over the Northeast. Check out West Virginia. Going to take some good rains to turn that around.
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Edit to my prior post. Found this: Using Advisory #1 it was off by 12 miles. TPC shifted the track northward in Advisory #2 from initial Advisory. Just noise really but forecast was amazing 4.5 days out.
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Here is a look at the "smoothed out" track of Milton. Does not capture the various wobbles along the way. There was a notable southward displacement to the actual track vs. original forecast from last Saturday afternoon - Advisory #2. Actual track was in the cone the entire time from that early forecast. In the final run to the coast there was a more pronounced turn to the NE than the original forecast. The landfall point from 5 days out was off by no more than 30 miles and the exit point off the east coast was off by about the same. Both were just south of the original forecast track. The early southward dip was the most notable forecast error.
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Yeah, I agree. Might need it for an hour or so in the morning to "take the chill out" as they say.
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Almost turned the heat on this morning but resisted ! Morning low was 41 with a noticeable breeze. Nippy!
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Thanks! Was wondering what it was looking like down that way.
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Just torrential rainfall continuing St. Petersburg, Tampa and Bradenton area and spreading northeast across central Florida. Wish we had some surge data for Charlotte Harbor (Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda). Have to believe water is piling in. Latest radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=TBW-N0Q-1-48-100-usa-rad
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Landfall.
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Eastern eyewall has crossed the coast. Should have official landfall within an hour a short distance south of Sarasota. Water should be rising quickly now along the coast south of landfall especially from Venice to Sanibel. Charlotte Harbor should see a fast rise over the next 1-2 hours.
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Eastern eyewall should be crossing the coast by about 8:00 / 8:15.
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NWS Tampa has issued an Extreme Wind Warning. Center will be coming onshore next 60-90 min. between Sarasota and Osprey. Tampa area will be affected by northern eyewall which is very robust. All 3 counties are north of the expected landfall point and will be affected by northern eyewall. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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September Summary for NJ. https://www.njweather.org/content/atmospheric-180°-september-2024-recap
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Looks like landfall next 2-3 hours between Sarasota and Osprey Florida. Tampa will be spared the worst of the surge. Bad enough for sure but not the catastrophic 10-15' that was feared. Those numbers could be realized further down the coast to the south of landfall point down to about Boca Grande and Sanibel. Someone in that swath of coastline could see a 10-15" surge. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Nasty looking. This will be lifting north and rotating onshore. Expect lots of Tornado Warnings over the next several hours.
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Updated 11 PM track is about 5-6 miles south of 5 PM. Not much but it is another nudge south and about 25-30 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. We'll see what 00Z guidance does. Last 6-8 hours the movement has been on the southern side of the GFES/EPS ensemble cluster so even though only a slight adjustment the trend today has been for slight southward adjustments. Heed all evacuation orders!
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22Z NDFD wind gust swath across Florida. Impressive swath from around Bradenton to Cocoa Beach. Would spare Orlando the worst of it but will cover a lot of real estate just south of the I4 corridor. Would produce lots of wind damage and horrendous power outages. To say nothing of the powerful gusts along the coast in and around Tampa down to Sarasota.
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Latest track as TPC indicated in 5PM update has been nudged south. Mainly due to the notable S.E. wobble earlier. Current track is about 22 miles south of the entrance to Tampa Bay. Way to soon to call an exact landfall location and any future wobbles especially as we get closer to landfall tomorrow night would have an impact on exact landfall. Track as it stands now would spare Tampa Bay the worse of the surge. If current forecast track is close to reality the worst of the surge would be from Siesta Key down toward Fort Myers. Not minimizing in any way the impacts for Tampa area just that current track would keep the max surge out of Tampa Bay. Watch for wobbles over the next 24 hours. Serious situation so if told to leave please leave. Max surge could reach historic levels. When all is said and done this could be the costliest hurricane to strike the U.S., certainly would be in the top 3 I would think. It will be affecting larger population centers as it landfalls and then crosses the state of FL. Power outages will be very widespread and long lasting. Friends in Boca Grande took a hard hit with Ian. Surge with this could be just as bad for that area although winds would be less. Final track will determine all of this and who gets the worst of it but prepare for something historic if you are in the cone and even south of the cone in case there is another southward adjustment.
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Latest visible loop: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop90.html Looks every bit as good as yesterday and it is gaining latitude last 2 hours. Turn toward the NE is getting started.
