MANDA

Buckle up....to prevent model whiplash.

Going with flurries to perhaps 1/2" here but hard lean toward the flurries.

Got the Kuchera? I am sure we’ll do better than the standard 10:1. I see I am in the bullseye. That concerns me.

Good grief why???? This was never going to be anything of substance for them to begin with. Unless you go back 10 days or so with a few rogue runs. Melting down over what? They need to unburden themselves from what was never going to be.

Buckle up !

The anomaly map shows the impact of the impending snow cover nicely.

The greatest departures from normal for this upcoming cold always looked like they would be south central plains into the southeast. Anything coming into the Mid-Atlantic / Northeast will be greatly muted for the reasons you all suggested. Also, not great snow cover over the Plains, Mid-West / Ohio Valley either so even eastbound could will be modified. Gold standard for Arctic outbreaks is -40 at 850, not seeing that either. At least over the next 7-10 days. Still, this looks like a solid stretch of BN cold upcoming even if it is against our warmest set of normals on record.

Boy, that stat sure sheds light on a 30 year period. I could probably mention all 5 years off the top of my head. Those were tough times. There were some memorable storms in there, just very few of them.

Seems many are not focusing on the potential for lasting and some record setting cold. There is a growing and impressive signal for intense cold. Cross polar flow and frigid high pressure building from the high Arctic into the U.S. Could be quite a significant event down the plains and into the southern plains and southeast especially in terms of departures from normal. Severe citrus freeze?? Texas as well with impactful and life adjusting cold for a time over the next 2 weeks or so.

.17" rainfall overnight. No icing. Temperature only briefly dipped to 32 overnight. Currently 40. Average snow depth 1/2" with 50% coverage. Expect only plowed shoveled mounds to remain by the end of the weekend.

Guidance / ensembles in good agreement and persistent in dumping record or near record cold into the central and eastern U.S for second week of January. Very strong cold signal developing. Evolution and exact details uncertain. Some of the guidance developing intense high pressure from the high arctic southeast into the U.S. Depending on how things evolve could be accompanied by some snow around here. How much? Far away but the bitter outbreak signal is strong. Often times intense cold is dry but there are exceptions. If there is anything noteworthy around here as far as snowfall I'd say the window is January 7-12. Intense cold without snow is annoying and a waste of cold air.

.17" rainfall. No icing here. Temperature only briefly dipped to 32 overnight then rose slowly during bulk of precipitation event. Currently 40.

The road crews in my area are sure ready. Salt literally dumped on the roadways in very significant quantity. Really nuts. Brine would have handled this very well.

Snow cover status: 75-80% coverage with an average depth of 1". South facing exposures patchy coverage to bare ground. North facing and shadier locations holding onto 2" or a tad more this morning.

Mt. Holly has just posted Advisory. Not much but it doesn't take much light freezing rain or drizzle you send you sliding.

Solid white Christmas here. 100% coverage at 8am with average depth 3". This morning 85-90% coverage with average depth of 2".

Great pictures of 1947 event! Vintage! Was a solid white Christmas here yesterday with 100% coverage and average depth of 3" at 8am. Lost coverage mid and late afternoon and by end of the day (7pm) was about 85-90% coverage with average depth of 2". Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to everyone.

1.2" new snow here. That fell in just about a 2 hour period. Average snow depth is 4". Melted total today is .09".

That's ok. We had snow to whiten Christmas and a decent cold snap. We still need the rain so I'll take it. Drought Monitor has only made little progress with the recent rains.

According to some accounts I've read on this storm there was thunder and lightning in the hours around and just after mid-night (12/24-12/25) in the metro area.

I really have trouble biting on anything outside of 7-10 days. Beyond day 10 and especially day 15 it has been pure speculation last several years. Modeling has been very "jumpy" it seems to me. Taking OP runs surface features as anything more than "interesting" is foolhardy.

NYS minimums.

Overnight low here of +2 (1.9 to be exact) and still a solid snow cover with an average depth of 3.5". Well below zero in the usual NJ cold spots.

Overnight low of 8 here. Some mins across NJ and a satellite pic that shows the extent of the snow cover.

Very happy for you ! Nobody wanted this more than you. Glad you got it finally.