psuhoffman

Holy $&@&$ Yep the h5 left just enough room to let this pull up the coast after a weaker start. Perfect track. I wouldn't worry about this weird warm pocket in the mid levels. Frankly looks wrong. Even if it's right it's sleet after heavy snow. But i don't buy that kind of thing from this range. Not with that track.

Ok you guys are obviously ahead of me so I'll shut up with my bad analysis and let you take it away.

Hmm at 168 I see hope. It's weaker and south of 12z att BUT...the h5 trough axis is a but further west with more ridging along the coast. Northern stream might be relaxing just enough to let this recover at the last minute. It's starting out worse but I see room for more latitude gain up the coast then 12z.

It's really a minor adjustment...but the northern stream is a little stronger and further south and the stj system is slightly weaker. That combo could suppress south. Could still recover some at the last minute but looks headed suppressed to me through 144.

Looking at the northern stream flow on top of it...might be suppressed. Will see.

I'm ok with an extreme cutoff right along the CT Mass border all winter. Let the Boston crew smell the snow but not taste it!!! Deal?

How far north we can afford the primary getting is variable. Given the very cold antecedent airmass at arrival and decent confluence and suppressive flow to our north we could survive a slightly further north transfer then in a less ideal setup. Of course at this range all that is irrelevant but just saying this run isn't unrealistic given those conditions.

We need to get this in nam range. Which is 6 hours before the storm starts It is and it's not happening. Just ask Chuck!

Fringed. Next

Where was your play by play? Yoda is good but...

I normally don't engage in the New England rivalry but after some Boston flunkies insisted this was definitely a miller b New England year like 2005 and I was wrong to suggest the mid Atlantic would do well...I hope they smoke cirrus all winter while we post deck pics.

Ok let's just lock that run up right now. Lol

It's going to be a mauling. That moisture feed slamming into that cold. Even if it tracks inside (doubtful it probably gets forced east from there) it will be a massive thump first this run.

At least we have good comic relief in here this season!!!

Looking at the 84 hour nam to extrapolate a 180 hour storm is always a problem!

Simplest answer is it just didn't come together at all levels perfectly. An hecs requires engines firing on all cylinders at the surface mid and upper levels. Dec 5 2002 and feb 25 2005 had very little upper level support. If I remember correctly both looked fairly innocuous at h5 and what energy there was even tracked north of ideal. We got by on a WAA thump alone pretty much. The feb 28/mar1 2005 storm was convoluted. The upper energy kind of split with the main trough digging in pretty far west and a piece out in front. The storm kind of was disconnected and not synced up at all levels. The surface storm was along the VA capes but the h5 low was back in the Midwest. The whole system got stretched out and prevented heavy banding from developing in the ccb. Thats just my memory of those 3 off the top of my head.

It's hard to capture perfectly because those maps are only available in 24 hour increments so it's often impossible to catch it as it comes into Cali. and sometimes the systems are discreet coming into Southern California. But on the top what will be the energy for our hecs in 2016 is about to crash in around San Francisco. In the second what will be the feb 6 2010 hecs had just crossed southern cal and is in southern Arizona. The third that system about to hit southern cal will become PDII.

Yea it came into Northern California vs southern but the blocking compensated and forced it to exit south of the latitude it came in at. There are lots of variables that change what "ideal" for any one factor is. You know this. Just pointing it out for the rookies. But in general in a nino a system crashing into the west with a cold trough in the east is a winning formula.

And of course not everything ends up an HECS. These went on to be 2 run of the mill secs systems in the end of the 2005 winter and the Dec 5 secs in 2002. But same theme. Stj system in a nino out of the southwest with a trough in the east and either blocking or some kind of 50/50 or PV lobe to suppress the pattern somewhat.

Some nino examples of systems coming out of the southwest

Most of them. I'll pull up some visuals.

My random thoughts on this where we stand right now. It's still forever away. It's fun to analyze the guidance but these 50-100 mile jumps in a mid latitude cyclone run to run at day 7+ on operationals is nothing. Noise. The ensembles have been fairly consistent in targeting the mid Atlantic. There are a few things I think I thInk right now. From past nino climo I think the odds of the stj just completely crapping the bed like last December is lower. I think history with these kinds of stj systems crashing Southern California during a cold pattern in a nino says this is a legit threat to the mid Atlantic. It's a fairly typical setup for this region. My goalposts have narrowed to this not being completely squashed to im significance or a full cutter. I do think someone in the mid Atlantic sees a warning criteria snow from this. But whether that is Richmond, DC, or somewhere in PA is way too small an adjustment to the longwave pattern from this range to say. Finally from past similar situations if this is going to get squashed it's likely to show that in the next couple days. Once we get to about 120 hours if it still looks healthy it's very unlikely to just go poof. Beyond that from about 48-72 hours in these trend north "some" more often then not. Models often underestimate the expanse of precip. They often underplay the intensity and ratios on the nw fringe. And they often adjust the surface track just a little north at the very end. All that usually adjusts the northern edge of snowfall north in the final endgame stages. So going into the final countdown being on the northern side of the snowfall is ok, you don't want to be riding the rain/snow line. After this storm my gut says we moderate for about a week to slightly above normal. No prolonged torch but as the pattern retrogrades we will have to suffer a transient period where Pacific air floods across. But I think it's temporary and by Xmas or abouts the Alaska vortex retrogrades enough that we are back in a more favorable pattern. I also think it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that during the "relax" something in the stj could cut under and perhaps create a threat for something wintery if it's just cold enough. Something like Xmas 2002 comes to mind. For the record I didn't once consider adjusting my seasonal snowfall prediction down. I did consider bumping it up slightly but let it ride!

That's kind of how I read it. Actually sounds like a typical nino pattern...

Lol you should have seen the epic meltdown he had on my twitter after I posted that snowmap poking fun at him.