psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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Lol you should have seen the epic meltdown he had on my twitter after I posted that snowmap poking fun at him.
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I don't know about snow but I have a forecast that someone will be given a time out come the first storm mode of the season. My confidence in that is fairly high for such long leads.
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If you look at how the ensembles are correcting and retrograding the features if that continues just a bit more we will end up in a -AO/epo +PNA by the 20th. Lol
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I was just thinking that. Bizzaro world!
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Bob your right the gfs progression is not one the D.C. area typically scores a warning type event. That's probably an advisory snow to mix to rain type thing that evolution. But it's also not as far off as those thermals suggest either. The gfs has been running way way way too warm at the surface and mid levels in these types of situations again and again. Unless I see a thermal representation like that from the other guidance I wouldn't put much stock in it. There have been some runs of the Fv3 with a similar track and yea we mixed and rained but the thermals weren't as bad and there was more front end thump and even after the change it wasn't as bad as that panel. That's probably because the Fv3 has been doing better with the boundary and mid level temps. So I'm agreeing that the gfs as it is wouldn't be a great solution I don't think it's as far from one as those panels suggest. Get the transfer 50-75 miles southeast (a minuscule error for 180 hours) and it's a pretty good warning level event into 95 imo. Probably still would mix some but it's early December!
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There is some ridging over Greenland at just the right time. Kind of a bootleg -nao. And the AO has been negative and is becoming neutral. And if that's the worst of the key factors we look for it's not that bad. We have scored in worse. Of course we have failed in better too so we will see.
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It's 8 days away. Im not worried about a close miss on op runs. If we start to see runs targeting the Carolinas then I might get concerned. A central VA Jack on a day 8 run is just fine!
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Dude it's a snowstorm for Richmond on this run.
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Yea, we've seen it happen before though. Typically that kind of progression would give us some frozen but a lot of mix and muck. Sometimes we can get lucky with a front end thump or a nice backside surprise if the h5 tracks good...but that kind of messed up discombobulated evolution isn't usually a big snow one for us. Still a lot of twists and turns to go before we know the details of the setup. I mentioned yesterday that dec 2003 was in the analogs and that was an example of a pretty weird progression that worked out for the nw half of our area.
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Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under. Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo.
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But the soil temps!!!
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Looking at the EPS day 10-15 if that vortex near Alaska retrogrades just a smudge more we might be snowing in the middle of the big warmup we were crying about a few days ago. The PV continues to take a beating and shows no signs of consolidating. That's the best sign long term.
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It's not like it used to be where we wanted the target on NC 100 hours out. But most southern branch systems do trend north the last 72 hours. It's not 100%. There are exceptions where the system can get squashed. Most often if that's going to happen it shows up in the day 5-7 range though. If we make it inside 100 hours with a healthy looking system at that point it usually trends north some. Some of that is a slight track adjustment. But often it's the models underestimating the expanse of the precip on the northwest side. They often underplay the banding that often sets up just south of where the moisture feet hits the confluence wall. Often there is enhanced lift here and banding then the precip shuts off fast due to the subsidence once you get out of that banding. That's why the extreme northern cutoff is often a feature in these storms. The ratios in that area are often high too so an area with 1" qpf can get as much snow as an area with 1.5" further south. All of that often adjusts the heavy snow north some in the last 72 hours. Hanging out on the northern side of the snowfall target is a good place to be at range imo.
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It's close enough for 8 days away.
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Still too far out to be confident but things look about as good as they can at this range for this early. It would be nice to score a warning event right off the bat to put everyone in a good mood and hold off the doom and gloom that will set in if we roll into January still without a significant event.
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Fv3 takes what actually would be a central VA Jack track with a stretched out system and more suppressive flow. I like where we are right now though. The early dec 2003 storm showed up in the day 8 analogs today. I know that was a forum divider with 6-12" nw of the fall line and nothing east of 95 but this has much better antecedent cold then that did. At least the way it looks right now.
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What would it take to get a storm like the ones in 2010? Now wait while I reword that and ask it again 10 times a day all winter.
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Just wondering
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What about this one?
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Or this
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Does anyone remember this
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It would be. The gfs parks the ccb over us for 24 hours but it's only light the whole time. Like I said it could be way off on the track and then it's irrelevant but that exact evolution and I'd bet money the result would be much better then the raw qpf indicates. Gfs does that a lot.
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Gfs greatly underestimates the expanse of the precip shield and qpf in the deform from range. Doesn't matter because the track will shift around from this range anyways but a track like that would probably have better results then the raw output suggests for our area.
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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco
psuhoffman replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
If we split the difference between the gfs and fv3 it's perfect. I like that even with a really far west track we still get at least some front end snow. Implies there is some wiggle room for a frozen event.
