psuhoffman

A lot of people threw around 1963/4 as a good analog. That got snowy right before Christmas.

Imo the pattern the next 15 days looks "fine". The problem is fine doesn't cut November 23-dec 7th. We need damn near perfect. There are some minor flaws. Transient ridging at times. Disconnect between nao and epo. PAC jet crashing in at the wrong time. But even given that we could luck into a threat. There are enough hits in the ensembles to say it's not a shutout no shot pattern. There is a risk of a wave around nov 30th behind the would up system that fujiwaras to our north. It's getting squashed on the guidance now but it's there. It could turn into a minor event of the confluence relaxes some. After that I wouldn't be shocked to see some front end ice or snow threat evolve for the system that likely will cut in early December. Then after that there are a couple waves in the long range that have a small shot if the timing is right. It's looking likely we don't score anything significant in the forseeable future. But it's not impossible. And the forseeable future only takes us into early December. And the minor flaws making it difficult now would be easier to overcome in mid winter. We are not seeing any long term propensity for ridging in the east. If anything warm ups are temporary with troughinh wanting to come back quickly. The mjo looks to by cycling exactly how we want. The PV keeps getting beat around everytime it tries to consolidate. We are now seeing hints of the nao going negative again toward day 15. I still love what I'm seeing in a long term view. It's November 22. We're not staring at weeks on end of 65 degrees like most years! Even in a good nino year snow before January is hit or miss. We had nothing before January in 1965, 1977, and 1987 and all 3 went on to be blockbuster winters. In 1963 and 2009 it didn't get snowy until right before xmas not early December. And 2009/10 if that one storm had gone wrong...bad timing or suppression then we wouldn't have gotten snowy until late January and February. Until I see an actual reason to worry I'll take comfort in a decent pattern that later in winter would likely produce some results and just be patient.

Happy Thanksgiving

A lot of the analogs, including the good ones, didn't really get going in terms of snowfall until January. I'm just glad we are quickly eliminating some of the total dud analogs by having an early season snowfall and a lack of a raging positive AO. Anything we get in terms of snow before xmas is always bonus to me.

It's November

Gfs and euro trending towards ridging in the east around day 10 before the epo ridge flexes day 10-15 and we get cold again. The ridging is in response to the trough in the southwest as Wxusaf said. I've also seen stats that show the nao correlation to cold in the east is stronger later in winter. It's still a good thing now but something like a bad pna can offset it more now. Ultimately the Pacific looks to take over in a good way and plunge us into a colder look after day 10. That might be a better look for early season snow anyways. An ambiguous but not hostile AO with an EPO and PNA ridge is a much colder pattern and we need that this time of year. And a weaker progressive wave in a colder pattern might be a better shot for the coastal plain then some wound up system in a moderatly cold blocking pattern in early December anyways. There would still be a window immediately after the day 6 system if something can amplify and not get squashed. Or perhaps a clipper type system before the ridging takes hold.

It wouldn't be winter without Mappy getting feisty.

You gonna pay the FCC fines?

I don't think anyone was being serious. I think they were just joking.

Hot takes are in!

Pattern looks transient to me. I expect by April or May it will warm up.

What if we post the Fox News map next to the MSNBC map then have a panel on to debate about it.

Ignore is really good for some problems!

@Bob Chill they aren't going to let you forget that 2 weeks thing! I can't complain about anything I'm seeing right now. Things still progressing as we want them too. Just have to be patient now. Last week was a nice tease but it got the winters here feeling going and then you realize it's still only mid November and usually we're still like 60 right now and not even thinking of tracking yet.

My son reacting to the snow last week. https://www.flickr.com/photos/168139133@N02/shares/tdp2jq

It has to be good for something. God knows it can't get a thermal boundary right from D1

Sorry I was looking at the gfs not the euro lol. But euro is a good run too. Implies by day 10 it gets cold. Gfs is a good run. Cutter day 8-9 sets the table. Day 10 the whole Conus is COLD and the next system getting organized in the gulf. Euro and gfs agree that after the day 8-9 storm it gets cold enough that some real threats should show up after.

Maybe not but I doubt that first storm day 7-8 has much of a chance. After that it might be game on.

Where are you seeing it? Tropical Tidbits isn't loading and the two other sources I know of one only goes out to day 10 and the other hasn't updated 6z yet.

This isn't really just an early season problem. Anytime a blocking regime establishes but the antecedent airmass over the Conus is warm it takes a while. We can look at the last two significant blocking periods as examples. Last year the blocking started to establish the very end of February but we then had to waste a couple perfect track storms to rain early March before enough cold got into the pattern to support legit snow threats. January 2016 was the same and that was mid season. I distinctly remember a perfect coastal track storm but it was too warm. My area mixed with slush bombs when the precip was heavy but that's it. The boundary layer was torched still. It took a week or so and a few rain storms before we got a real threat. So even in mid winter if the airmass is warm when blocking develops it takes a while. Unfortunately typically that's the case as when we get blocking it's often the result of the PV being bombarded by waves and like this case both a retrograding ridge and a Conus ridge combine to displace and weaken the PV and create high lat blocking. But the Conus ridge also scours out all the cold too so we start the new pattern with an awful airmass in place. Im also not concerned about needing a "perfect" pattern. This isn't a Nina. There is no glaring flaw we have to overcome this year. Remember the years where it just seemed to want to snow? A cow in Ohio would fart and we would get snow. My gut says this is one of those years. The pattern the last few weeks has been decent but ambiguous in most ways. Far from perfect. Yet we have had numerous coastal systems that in winter would have been a snowfall event and one actual snowfall out of an only half decent pattern in NOVEMBER! I feel that even if we only have a decent h5 pattern at times this is a year that can work.

Fortunately we don't have to wait for you're snark. I see your in mid season form also.

The mjo cycling the cold phases repeatedly is one of the best signs imo. Keep it cycling like that all winter and it would be hard to fail.

That was the first storm I meant but I had the wrong year. I meant dec 2002 not 2003. The 2003 storm was good in the typical nw spots but did little in the cities.

There is no easy answer to this and it's two different answers depending where in our region you are. History has shown places west of the fall fine with some elevation can get a decent snow event in December much easier. But I think you are more focused on the urban corridor. The best 2 ways to get it done there are an incredibly anamolous cold shot or a perfect h5 setup and a perfect track surface storm in tandem with just enough cold to work. If you can get a reasonably cold airmass and a perfect track it can happen. Or very anamolous cold and a wave. But the problem is getting that. Both are rare in December. Cold just typically hasn't had enough time to build enough to press the jet this far south on average. When we do get cold it's typically a quick shot then out. But I don't remember too many instances where we got a perfect setup and it failed simply because it was December. More often the real problem is getting a perfect setup this early is difficult. By perfect I mean cold enough air mass and a system to take the perfect track. Even this storm yesterday could have been more snow in DC had it taken the perfect track. An h5 through PA and a surface storm up the Delmarva inside ocean city is a flip to rain track for 95 even in January. One of the most impressive things was the result given that unfavorable track. I wouldn't honestly expect to do any better then I did here with that track even in winter. Had the h5 tracked 100 miles south and the surface system tracked off the coast instead of inside it D.C. Could have had a warning criteria snowfall. In the last 20 years there have only been 4 systems pre xmas to get significant snow into the coastal plain that I can think of. One was dec 5 2003. That was a miller a/b hybrid that was pretty weak at the surface and h5 but took a perfect track and had the advantage of a nino stj. There was a weak frontal wave in 2004 that dropped 3-6" east of D.C. A clipper in 2007 that maxed out and then of course 2009 which was the ultimate perfect h5 and surface track. So 4/20 years had a signoficant snowfall on the coastal plain pre xmas. That's only 20%. But 2 of those were modoki ninos so it's 2 out of the 4 modoki ninos in the last 20 years. Not bad odds if we look at it that way.

12z FV3 and 18z GFS start to tease us with an early December threat. Obviously well supported by the pattern.