psuhoffman

I've never seen the EPS and gefs in better agreement on day 15!

Have we decided who is the reaper and in charge of the panic room this year?

Thank you for your contributions!!! I've been thoughoughly impressed by all the discussions lately. The winter/long range/storm threads have all been excellent. Stayed on topic and when there was banter it was funny and then back on topic. And some of the posters seem in mid season form already with their A game. So far the quality of this regions threads have been impressive imo!!!

That panel screams incoming.

I wasn't disagreeing with you either just agreeing with your caveat that it's really far out. I'd rather be in a good pattern worried about super long range bad looks (not even bad just mediocre) then in a crap pattern waiting for a super long range better one.

It wouldn't surprise me if a relax happens. And of the AO wants to cycle between strongly negative and neutral that's a win. We aren't going to run the table with a -4 AO now to march anyways. Plus a great Pacific combined with a neutral AO/NAO can work just fine also. It's not a hecs pattern but it can produce snow. But...I'm also not that invested in what the day 20 guidance shows right now. The weeklies and CFS totally missed the November cold now. They totally missed what looks like a cold start to December. And in 2013/14 all winter we were worried about the awful long range looks that never came. And how many times in a crap year when things sucked we were waiting on some great look day 20 that never materialized. So while it's important to note the trends on guidance and discuss the possible relaxation of the pattern I'll worry more about day 20 when days 1-19 suck lol.

The first week of December is definitely becoming a possible threat window. If he h5 look being advertised by ALL guidance is even close then we have a legit shot.

The last couple years mid January has felt like summer.

Some serious icing going on here. My trees are sagging pretty bad. Losing lots of beaches.

Update from wife 30 mins ago. I'm stuck on 30. It's a parking lot.

It's an amazing look. We will have threats in that pattern for sure. I wonder if some are rushing it though. The storms in the 8-14 day will likely get forced under us and you never know but it's also possible there won't be enough cold to work with yet as the pattern gets established. Not saying they can't work but I won't be upset if we have to wait. Climo gets less and less hostile every day also. But the best window might be after what were seeing now as such a pattern pulses and relaxes or ultimately breaks down. (Before the reload of course). Won't stop Ji from cancelling winter anyways.

Almost 5" at home. Still snowing hard according to wife. These are from about 45 mins ago.

Pic from home

Yea somewhere near me is where that band will be snow and crush. But I don't have any soundings for my area to tell. It's gonna be close. I would have liked baltimore to hold onto snow another hour to feel safe.

Keep me posted. Flipped back to sleet here in Baltimore. It doesn't have the feel of a lull feels more like the waa winning and the permanent flip. An hour or so earlier then I would have liked but still great for November.

What about for near the PA line? Any chance that band stays snow up there?

Not DCA that place is satans snow anus but this area in general actually gets a lot of big snowstorms and snow years compared to many places...even colder snowier ones in general. But our snow comes in spurts with often long droughts in between. We dont do regularity well but when we go we go big. ETA: depends when people are here. A friend from Brazil came to stay with me during his "summer" break in 2002/3 and thought I lived at the North Pole.

Some people's sanity is caving. Wife says 27/19 at home. That's not an "it's gonna change to rain easily" look.

Sleet changing to snow now in west Baltimore.

Sucks your first two years here were duds. Hopefully this year makes up for it.

It's amazing what 30 minutes latitude and 1000 feet elevation can do.

I didn't know about Stephens but Elkins is west of the eastern divide/Alleghenies and when there is a CAD situation where waa floods up west of the mountains they will go to rain pretty fast.

It was 28/19 when I left for work 30 mins ago.

I won't even engage people on that nonsense anymore. I refuse to argue with people about whether it can possibly do something that it has done before.

In 95 I had a soccer game where it was about 70 then that night we had 3" of snow.