psuhoffman

I don't get to tell you what is offensive to you... that is for each to assess themselves...and I would never call a person retarded or make fun of someone who was, but for me personally if its obviously a joke and its not directed at a real person in any way, then its not the same. When it comes to humor I am not PC and kind of like the edgy boundary pushing stuff myself. But again that is just me, and I don't mean to offend so I will keep that in mind next time.

OK I know its preseason and were having fun but those FV3 maps are just... I mean all the snow maps are clowns but that's like if you got the retarded clown drunk, spun him around 20 times until he threw up, then had him roll around in the puke as he passed out and called it a snow map.

There were a few storms that didn't look like much from more then 72 hours out but turned into very solid or even warning criteria events in 2013-14. When did that nice little advisory event last December show up? I can't remember if that was really on the radar from 4-5 days out. Other events I can remember where some part of our area did well and I don't think it was a particularly long lead event would be the Snow to ice event in Feb 2015. From 3+ days out that looked like mostly ice to rain and became a 4-8" snowstorm for most of the area, even more for some. There was a storm in February of 2007 that looked like rain from 48 hours out and turned into 3-6" of wet snow. It can happen but its definitely more rare then the snowstorm that goes poof on us inside 72 hours.

Just keep this general cycle going into winter and...

It was a nice little event up here to start off that epic season. I am not sure exactly what you had but most of the reports around you were about 5". I had 6 here. It had some similarities, marginal temps, but the track was further offshore so less mid level southerly flow to deal with, snowfall actually tailed off some NW of me. It was a significantly weaker system overall also. If this was December 5th we probably would be looking at a significant snowfall here. Even if the track is slightly inside idea right now even that would adjust if it was December and there was a slightly colder boundary. That would probably shift the track a bit east also towards the temperature boundary along the coast. But I am of the mind that this is a good sign... the fact that every time we get any kind of trough we pop multiple coastal systems bodes well as climo becomes more favorable soon.

Thanks...but you're skill with the gif's and as the "reaper" is legendary. And you can run circles around me in a tropical discussion. We all have our roles.

Some people are wasting more then that.

I'm still holding out some hope for that. As I told showmethesnow I can remember several examples the last couple years where the current gfs ran a couple degrees warm in these kinds of marginal situations because it didn't accurately depict evaporation cooling. Doesn't mean it will again this time but it's been a bit too warm enough times (think that feb storm last year) to still think things could break our way here. Breaking our way to me means 1-2" of snow/sleet before the flip around the cities.

Yea I would lean that way. I've been downplaying it for people at work in Baltimore. My previous thoughts were for my area and Mappy. I think for things to break right will take a bit more down towards 95 but even there it's possible a thump to start can overcome the mid level waa for a period and put down 1-3" real quick before the flip. I've seen that happen plenty of times. But the safe bet is sleet for sure.

It's significantly more accurate now but in some ways it was easier to use back when it sucked but had consistent biases that you could correct for. All the models have become less predictable in their errors imo. Or maybe I just don't have the time I used to to stare at them all day and learn them.

I've felt this current iteration of the gfs since the last major overhaul has run warm in marginal snow situations most of the time. Just an observation and I know that can be dangerous without looking at the data to back it up.

That's about where I am. But this has high bust potential both directions. The whole thermal boundary is close. And models can't usually nail every level to to the exact degree. In this case a 1-2 defree miss in either direction for us is the difference between mostly just cold rain/sleet and 5" of snow.

If I get 11" I'll worship the FV3 all winter and pimp it's crazy stupid snowfall maps no matter how ludicrous!

I'm setting my bar at 2-3" right now and if it's more then that I'll be over the moon.

As others said it's about 3-1.

If you scroll down in that thread on twitter HM goes on to explain that the forcing that is basically beating the crap out of the PV right now, is initiating from the bottom up not the top down...IOW no SSWE. That to me is the best news here because those tropospheric forces are likely to be more stable and this could be an indicator that we are likely to have repetitive blocking periods this winter. Not unexpected but the signs are showing up right on time. Everything continues to progress exactly how we want. I am almost ready to pull the trigger and jump all in for this winter!

Hi

We can and have had many -AO/NAO periods without a SSWE.

The reason almost all the seasonal forecasts are similar is we are all looking at the same analogs. Yes there is some room for interpretation in terms of weighting exactly what to include as a factor and ranking each factor in terms of importance. But since they are still generally the same factors and this year no matter how you slice it the majority of the analogs turned out snowy. BUT, there were a few duds in the set so nothing is guaranteed but you have to like where we are right now.

He is implying the scandanavian ridge will retrograde into a WAR and lead to a positive nao. And he is cherry picking a few years to support it. But I've seen data that suggests a scan ridge actually correlates to a -nao following it overall. Maybe he is right but I'm not worried over a few cherry picked examples some of which have nothing in common with this year.

Maybe you should step away from the keyboard for a little while.

2 of those seasons weren't remotely like this year. And the one left is a small sample size. Plus things turned out fine that year. One month is also too small a time scale to judge a winter pattern. Don't confuse correlation with causation.

Problem with sswe is we have very little ability to predict it and it doesn't even always correlate to blocking and cold where we need it. So is a lot of talk often for no results.

Frankly if we have a winter void of SSWE talk it's probably a good sign!!!

@[email protected].@Bob Chill@WxUSAF I feel like we're all on the same page. I love what I'm seeing. Pacific sst strongly argues against a hostile epo pna lasting much of the winter. The PV seems to be having trouble sustaining itself and looks to continue to be bullied around by waves and everytime we get a trough storms want to come up the coast. The scan ridge typically precedes blocking periods and this is the time we want that to set up. The mjo seems to want to keep circling the phases we want. The table is definitely set with all the ingredients here imo. So far there is no UH OH showing up. I'm as optimistic as I've been since 2014-15 in our chances for above normal snowfall.