psuhoffman

Typical

All the guidance is swinging some upper energy through the trough behind the Tuesday system. It's worth keeping an eye on. Obviously everything this time of year is a long shot. Still I'm loving seeing the repetitive idea of systems up the east coast everytime we get a trough.

What happened to credibility and integrity??? ...crap I'm missing that history channel documentary about the illuminati and aliens at the first thanksgiving!!!

Deep Thunder lol

I think guidance might be rushing the evolution of the pattern a little but I agree in the direction. Towards the end it's moving towards establishing the exact pattern features we would expect if this is going the way of past favorable modoki nino years. I really don't care about snow threats until we get into December and we have a more legit chance anyways. A great pattern before then probably gets wasted anyways. But I'm not seeing the kinds of things that could set up this time of year that are a bad omen. I'm content to let this percolate and evolve the way it's going.

There was a discussion on twitter a while ago, started by reputable sources (pro mets) and there was data to back up the correlation.

I've seen stats that suggest the kind of ridge were seeing in Scandanavia this time of year often precedes a -nao.

That's ugly but...there are some features there like the scandanavian ridge that could quickly evolve that into a decent look. It's also a look similar to warm early periods in past ninos in the analog set so not unusual.

Ah yes...never let today's joy distract you from tomorrow's potential misery!

It's almost impossible to get 3+ straight months of constant negative anomalies. But there are places that are cold enough where even a period of slight positive departures can still be wintery. Here that's not the case. Even an average period probably isn't that wintery. So thinking we are going to have a wall to wall cold/snowy winter just isn't realistic.

I don't think that January h5 looks bad but the ridge in Canada extends a bit further east then I like and that positive nao probably will mean a warm up during any relaxation. I could see a period where given that nao and Canadian ridge configuration that warm air floods across the Conus. But I definitely don't take it as a shutout month. It's a better look then we have had most of the time lately. But compared to the epic looking months around it on this run it's the runt. But I don't mind the possibility of a thaw period. Every analog says it's coming. And it would explain the overall washed out average temps for the winter. I don't have individual month temps but I'd bet money dec and feb are cold and January warm. That doesn't mean the whole month is toast but if 2 weeks are a torch and 2 weeks are near or slightly below normal but we get a snow event in there...and dec and feb are rocking...who cares. But that would explain how temps end up near normal with that h5 mean. I'm just speculating.

2002/3 wasn't a bad h5 match.

I have December and January. I had to clear space to post. Don't have March sorry

Yea recently it really does seem that where the nino is centered really matters, with most east based nino's actually being pretty warm. But even if its a central pacific nino there are still enough duds in the set to not just assume "cold/snowy" winter. But of all the possible enso conditions it does seem to be the one that gives us the highest probability for a snowy winter. I suspect its mjo related as a central pac nino centers the tropical forcing in a spot that cycles the mjo through the favorable phases more often then not. As for this euro seasonal run, I am sure some people are less than thrilled about the surface temps on this run, but not all "near normals" are created equal. It seems obvious to me looking at the individual months that somewhere in January there is a thaw that might offset the colder periods around it. There is enough of a trough in the east even in January that it probably isnt a totally weasted month but given the hostile NAO that month when it gets warm it might get very warm. And we don't need arctic cold to get snow. But that h5 should mean when we do get some cold the storm track would be favorable and an active stj. There is way more to like then not like about this run imo. But people can keep freaking out because there are not pretty blues on the 2m temp maps over their house.

The irony is someone who has been skeptical of the "cold snowy" consensus posted only the 2m temps showing "near normal" and neglected to post the h5. LOL

I would guess because I know several people in my PSU circle of friends have subscriptions to wxbell. I currently do not. I can verify they are authentic though because I found some maps posted on twitter and they match up perfectly.

someone I know and trust from my PSU meteorology days sent it to me but if I had to guess the source I would say probably JB.

I believe it is, it says initialized November so that should be this month's update. And I thought it was a pretty darn good look...I'm willing to roll with that and take my chances.

Mean h5 for the winter. Feb

I am good with what the euro seasonal is showing. Average temps Dec-Feb but a trough in the east, EPO/western Canada ridging, and lower heights near 50/50 all 3 months. December pattern looks good, January is ambiguous, February looks great. Even January has enough trough in the means in the east to imply its not a lost month by any means but its the worst of the 3 with a hostile NAO. February still looks 2010 ish. Again near average temps but the h5 implies we would have chances and puts the storm track where we want it most of the winter and no sign of any awful feature like a WAR or Alaska vortex to screw everything up. I am buying what its selling and running with it. If the h5 for the winter ends up like that I would be shocked if we didn't get some decent snow events.

Essentially there is warmer waters right now where we want convection and colder waters where we do not. And the MJO is responding lately as the last 2 waves have cycled through the favorable phases. If that continues through winter we will be good. It certainly lends credence imo to the guidance that wants to have the trough in the east most of the winter.

If we can get the mjo to keep cycling 8-2 with the same amplitude as the last two waves all winter were gonna like the results.

No matter what your ideology everyone please vote tomorrow. We are blessed to live in a place where we have agency over our politics. Don't willingly give up that most fundamental right. Whatever your voice is make it be heard.

I'm in agreement. When I put together the list of similar enso years what stuck out most was how we seemed to get to a "win" several different ways. Even years without much help from the nao like 2015 and 2003 worked out. The rare years that failed it seemed the Pacific failed to respond with a typical modoki nino pattern. But years it did worked out regardless of the nao. The one caveat being that if we want a HECS we probably need some blocking. I know PD2 but imo that was a fluke. We got lucky with a perfectly timed/placed arctic high and a wave that had an incredible moisture stream but wasn't too strong such to push too far north. And we still had a lot of mixing. But in general the years without blocking we got numerous snows but not blockbusters. I'm fine with that just pointing it out.

This chart is beautiful to my eyes. Seeing the mjo cycle the phases we want is a sign the modoki nino is having the desired effect on tropical forcing. Keep that going through winter and we will be good.