psuhoffman

Ugh....so we will still be using the same gefs even once the gfs op is gone? I'm really looking forward to that upgrade...more than the op.

I figured once I found a woman who would drop everything on a dime and drive into a blizzard, get stuck on the highway, have to shovel the car through a wall of snow, and get stuck in a cheap motel for 2 days and think it was "fun"... Well that had to be the one.

yup...

I road tripped up there with my wife and got snowed in during that storm in CT. Amazing rates. We got ourselves stuck on the highway and had to dig our car off the freeway to get to the hotel. LOL

I feel the warm advection coming

given our maturity level I am not sure your way of describing your way of describing is suitable for this thread. Maybe we need a new thread!

Do you know how the Fv3 switch will impact the GEFS? Are they switching the ensemble system over, if so how? Resolution changes? Just curious if you have any info on that. GEFS is in desperate need of an upgrade.

Obviously they have just locked in on the exact solution at day 9...come on man.

Ehh that might not be a bad thing in the long run. There are other pattern drivers lined up in our favor this year so simply getting the mjo out of the way doesn't mean doom and gloom. What we don't want are long strong slow waves propagating the warm phases. The sst argues against that. If the waves are muted overall that might be fine also.

There has been a recent pulse of warmer water to the east. That's not necessary a shift east. Guidance doesn't project it becoming east based.

Only thing I'll take from the gem is that it finally sees the threat at least.

Yea I determined she has an agenda. Might just be to anti hype. Or prove her own predictions. I don't know. Burried in her nonsense is a legitimate argument that if this enso event continues to propagate east that it could become less favorable to snow here. But she is articulating that all wrong and misunderstanding some concepts. There is also no concrete evidence that will happen. Models indicate it remains central based and some think it's eventually wanes back west towards spring. I've seen no compelling evidence this is becoming an east based event. A short temp warm pulse doesn't necessarily spell doom.

I was curious about the "debate" going on and she pops up everywhere is you search modoki nino. And it's the same post over and over. She is playing word games. Using one definition when others are using another then implying they don't know what their talking about. I hate that crap. I'll say this...we don't want the nino to continue to shift east. That's not a good thing. But every nino event expands to cover the basin at its peak. Often modoki then contract back west. Sometimes they don't. If this continue to evolve east that wouldn't be as favorable to us. But it still wouldn't make this a classic east based nino or as problematic as the typical strong east based ninos like 83,98, and 2016 to our temps.

This relates to the nino discussion. No idea who beccalynch4 on twitter is but she seems to be the source of 90% of the "it's not a modoki" talk and from her posts she doesn't seem to have any idea what she is talking about. I posted a retort to as many of her posts as I could but she is flooding twitter with repetitive crap in every thread about the nino status. Not sure what her agenda is but she obviously has one.

Can we add day 10+ stat warm talk to the "kills puppies" list??? jokes aside yea the strat is important and it's worth discussing but we have very low predictive ability beyond a week, and the results of how each strat event effects the troposphere and then how that translates to the longwave pattern in a meaningful way to us is wildly unpredictable. Some strat warms do nothing for us. I think what is important is that the PV continues to take an absolute beating. It can't get its act together. If that continues it's a good thing. And a strat warm could help too. There are some hints maybe....

The off hour runs only go out to 120 so in this case they aren't in range yet. I'm just not used to having to go look at them either. Not part of the regular routine yet. But I am sure once legit threats pop up inside range people will start using them. No way weenies will just ignore anything. Well except the SREFs and that took over a decade to finally get people to stop bothering with that crap.

An unperturbed lower resolution (run at the resolution of the ensemble members) run of the operational model. The rest of the ensembles are perturbed (fed slightly different input to simulate divergent results).

Joking aside purely from my casual observation the Fv3 is better. It's still not perfect, nothing is at range, but when the gfs and fv3 have been divergent the fv3 seems to win more often.

Hopefully in reality that "next" storm ends up phased with the frontrunner and it's just one storm. That's the way to get a big solution. Initial wave comes through then upper energy dives in and phases. There are some ensembles that have been doing that the last few runs and blowing up a huge long duration mid Atlantic storm. It's a long shot but we can dream.

The timing on the euro looks fine. The high is in a bad spot though. One departing and one coming in behind. That might mess it up but the antecedent air mass is still plenty cold as it's approaching.

Very weak at the surface. Barely any precip. About a coating to an inch around 95. 2-3" in the mountains.

Has snow on snow for many.

I've noticed the euro often runs a little warm at long range. Jan 2016 was a rainstorm at day 10 on the euro. Nov 15 was a rainstorm from range. It usually gets better with the thermals once in more reasonable leads. I'm way more interested in the h5 features and large scale synoptic setup at day 5-10 than I am the exact thermal profile. That said the track is a bit inside ideal but from day 10 that's not worth worrying about.

There are better things to worry about than frozen water. You're taking up the wrong hobby if you like certainty!

I could see that... there are no good analogs here with this type of sst configuration along with such a warm overall base state of the entire pacific. I could also see this as loading the pattern even more. When the jet crashes in off the pacific we go mild, but as you said it could also increase the STJ and so when we do get colder periods.... just have to hope we time them up. This is uncharted territory so we will just have to see.