psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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Keep it up and we're gonna have a PETA protest up in here soon!!!
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You know darn well thats where we want the gfs right now. If anything it might be a tad north of where we want it right now. I also doubt it's nailing the nw fringe. Never does. I'm fine with that run for my own prospects up here even.
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Usually I'm looking at h5 and comparing to the last run.
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We don't want it any further north then that right now. Trust me.
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It really shows up here...look at the heights. Note how much more amped the stj system is AND how the northern stream on top is relaxed and not as suppressive.
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Yea no way in 132 more hours it could shift the 100 miles we need. These models have it locked down!
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12z Was horrid so any model run will be better lol Remember I'm not looking for a huge hit right now. Having it just south of us us fine at 6 days out. But the 12z gfs was squashed garbage. Just get the gfs back in line with most other guidance is fine with me
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At 108 it's fine. Only thing that couod go wrong is if it still dives a NS vort down on top of us. Otherwise it should be better. Let's see
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I do...way less suppressive look in the NS at 108.
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You funny
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To me it looks like the base state of most of the important factors for our snow chances are pretty good. Attempts at bad patterns quickly bounce back into a pretty good look. I think it's only a matter of time this year.
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Ninos are typically very very good to your area.
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15 members are a significant snow in DC. Then another 6 come too far north and rain. A few fringe jobs. Then about 25 total southern slider misses.
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@Bob Chill @WxUSAF The worry about thermals from the euro op might be overdone. Looking at all the ensemble members that climb the coast they all have a good snowfall on the NW side. Some go to rain in DC because they track inside our ideal track but none are pure Rainers. I think the implication being that if it's actually precipitating in our area the "marginal" cold is good enough given convective cooling processes. That could change but this EPS run didn't seem to think temps are a big problem.
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There are two camps within the EPS. One brings it up (some even become rain and snow into central PA) and a camp that suppressed. SW va is good on both so yea the mean looks great there.
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Last one. This was the gefs 144 hours before. Euro wasn't any better. Again my only point is that I have way less faith in NWP to nail the exact location of features at 144 hours then some on here do it seems. Yea I would lean miss south right now but barely. We're not in as bad shape as some think though imo.
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Hmm this was the ggem from 144 in December 2009. Neither was all that close but the ggem was way better. At least it sees the stj system and is keying on the right vort. Gfs was off on a tangent and had a PV lobe right on top of us suppressing what would be a HECS. Again im not saying this is similar it's just funny to see such faith in narrow margins at 144 hours given typical error at that range.
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This is what the gfs was forecasting 144 hours before the Dec 2009 storm. Lol And this was what it ended up as Not comparing the two storms just pointing out what kinds of errors can happen from 144 hours. Now go look at the h5 difference between the runs with a hit for our area and the one with a close miss. We're not talking earth shattering adjustments for this lead.
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Its a step down from 0z EPS but I thought that was a GREAT run. I was surprised it wasn't getting more play. I wouldn't have wanted the EPS any north of where it was last night. It's slightly south of perfect now but I don't mind it targeting VA. Lets see how this works. We have had a few of these the last couple years. In a Nina. In mid winter. With a weaker stj. And at day 5/6 they were targeting NC/SC if my memory serves. And they all trended north. Not enough to save us but if this corrects the same as those did...and it's targeting just to our south this time... Gun to my head this looks like a southern mid Atlantic storm. But if i had to put odds now it's only 60/40 miss south imo.
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People freaking out over a 100 mile miss at 144 hours have way more faith in NWP than I do!
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Euro is close enough for me at 144. I'm happy
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through 120 its definitely not as bad as yesterdays 12z totally squashed run...but its not as good as the runs that had a big hit either. ETA: just looking at the combination of the strength of the stj wave and the northern stream configuration on top.
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Nice find...thanks.
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Thanks we werent sure it was coming out today or not
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We will see but those storms were much weaker STJ systems first of all and second I remember around day 5-7 the consensus had shifted way south with most of them...south of where we are now with the majority of the guidance...assuming the Euro doesnt crap the bed soon. We recovered in some of those cases from a weak wave off the southeast to a big snow for just southeast of our area... if we are looking at a richmond hit at day 5 the same kind of correction would work for us.
