psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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I'm not disagreeing that rain could become a problem but the issue is that vort diving down into New England is unlikely to help. Because of the trajectory it takes (coming in on top or to our northeast) for it to be close enough to provide any assistance with cold it would have to squash the storm. With a lobe rotating down into New England the only way that is providing us with cold is if it's still right there and then it's going to flatten the heights and squash. What we needed was the cold to be injected from the north or northwest then to have general confluence to our north to help hold it in but not a strong northern stream vort diving in on top of us. That's what killed the mid march threat last year btw. The one that got squashed before we finally scored a hit.
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Additionally that vort is slowing the stj down. Even the runs that hit us now stall and wait a bit. Get that northern stream lobe out of the way and the whole stj system might come in faster, get the convective cooling processes going inland which would tighten the coastal baroclinocity and encourage a favorable surface track...then the ball is rolling downhill. These big cut off storms are more variable and often variable isn't good for us.
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Right now the problem is both the slowing of the stj system and the timing and trajectory of that northern stream vort diving in on top of us. The true broad cold injected this week is waning by the time the stj system arrives. The vort coming in on the backside of the northern stream trough is of little use for injecting more cold because its rotating down to our northeast. What it is doing is flattening the flow along the east coast to suppress the storm. So that vort is useless to us. Might as well get it out of the way. The cold issue is one of timing. The stj took too long. Now it will have to take the perfect track (create its own cold) all that jazz we are familiar with. It's more marginal temp wise then it would have been a day earlier. Doesn't mean it can't work. But that vort diving into the northeast won't help in any way. Just get rid of it.
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Gefs under dispersal was never fixed. Disappointed they aren't switching the gefs with the op next month. I'm looking forward to that more. Gefs has been doing ok with the high latitude at range but they still jump run to run too much and with mid latitude cyclones in the medium to long range they are a bunch of Minnie Mes saying yes that to whatever the op does.
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There is definitely something wrong with us.
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I would rather that problem at day 6 then a weak stj system. We just need the timing or depth of that northern stream system to be off. So it's not diving in right in front to squash it.
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The southern oscillation index (SOI) is just one way to measure the STJ. The enso is measured by the sea surface temps but the reason nino matters is it usually has an impact on the stj. Right now the SOI isn't really in typical nino territory. It's not a 1:1 correlation. The stj still goes through fluctuations but in a nino it tends to average negative which means a stronger stj usually. Last I looked it was actually hanging out in slightly positive territory.
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Well the SOI is pretty lame right now so perhaps assuming "nino means good stj" isn't a safe bet.
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I wasn't trying to be flippant. I agree. I was focusing too much on the negatives. There are some things to work with still there.
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I'll go with your take. Any ship in a storm!
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On top of a stronger high it also has a weaker stj system and less energy digging behind. All that combined to show the result I didnt want to see showing up. Still just one run. But It wasn't good lol. Barely even gets precip into southern NC. And there isn't nearly enough upper support to get it to turn the corner. This run wasn't even close.
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Euro went with my "don't want to see some weak pos wave exiting off Jacksonville" option. It's squash city.
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I'm starting to think the bad look was just a brief step as the pattern retrogrades into a typical nino look.
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He probably runs the old global spectral model off a floppy disk
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Yea I'll endorse it also. Some of our excellent mets were discussing how there are different reasons for suppression and they aren't all equal. Seeing a weak pos system with no upper support would be way more problematic than just needing a system like this to gain a tiny bit more latitude. Besides stepping away from the surface plots for a minute...I can easily see room here for some north correction.
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Yep... we have had some snow events that way in crap patterns in nino years. Get the trough near Alaska to pull back just enough and southern branch to cut under the ridging and we can get something to work in that pattern. Won't be cold but so what. We aren't going to run the table cold all winter. If our relaxes come with snow threats that's a sign of a great year!
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Here we go twitter throwing around goat storm analogs
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That's a typical gfs error. One reason I don't sweat being fringed at range. Don't worry about it.
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I agree. There is some to like about this run. Better upper level support and a stronger wave. But what you mentioned is potentially problematic. For as much miller a worship around here our truly big ones are often stj a/b hybrids where the initial wave comes up west of the apps on a SW to NE trajectory. We have a big fail history with storms that slide east under us then need to do a sharp turn up the coast. A lot more can go wrong with that. But...it's still 7 days out. A lot will evolve. And I'm being really picky here it's still a pretty good setup and I'm comparing it to our absolute ideal hecs setup which isn't exactly fair. More to like then dislike this run but I do agree with the specific criticism you had.
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Me being fringed at this range is a good thing. When I say I don't want to see suppression I mean I don't want to see some weak arse 1015 low limping uselessly out to see off Jacksonville and no precip north of Raleigh. We want it a little south. You definitely want me to be fringe city right now. I just don't want to be seeing it target the Carolinas. A central VA Jack is a good look right now imo. This run has my endorsement.
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It's still a good setup but the guidance is trending towards a pretty suppressive look. As you said we need some of that. One thing I noticed after looking at the ensembles and op runs lately...the speed of the stj wave is becoming less the issue. It's the timing of the northern stream. Both the northern stream wave in front and behind. If the northern stream system coming across ahead of this is stronger and slower it's squashing it. If the energy digging behind is too far back it acts as a kicker instead of to pull it up. (6z gfs did that) Basically regardless of speed the stj wave needs help. There are faster and slower fails in the mix. What seems constant is the stj need help or it's suppressed. That complicates things and I don't like complicated.
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A little south of us I agree. But the typical northward adjustment in these recently isn't as great as 20 years ago. My worry isn't these runs it's if this is the start of a trend towards even more suppression. I said if that would happen it would probably show day 6-7 and here we are. Its just one run. I'm not throwing in any towel or over reacting. A long long way to go. But I won't sugar coat it and pretend I'm totally ok seeing a move towards suppression either.
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Gefs followed the op south. I don't mind the solutions targeting southern VA but there are now quite a few (~40%) that squash the storm down into practically nothing. That's not something I want to see. We can easily see it recover if we're looking at a southern VA snowstorm day 6 but it's less often we do if we start to see guidance converge on a solution more suppressive than that.
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@showmethesnowit doesn't surprise me the EPS was a step back. Last night I was thinking despite the great euro op run I didn't like how it got there. It was suppressed early on then needed a late capture and jog up the coast to save us. But without that, if it didn't come together just right, it would be suppressed. I definitely think suppressed is the bigger threat. Even on runs that try to cut they hit a wall and get squashed east. Look at the h5 flow. There isn't really much room to go north. The flow over the top is pressing down and it's running into a wall. Just looking at it I don't think the stj feature alone can get it done. If there is no interaction with the trough digging in behind it this will likely be a southern slider. We need at least some phasing and a partial capture. My goalposts are the same. I don't think this can truly cut and I doubt it disappears but I could see it impacting NC and southern VA if there is no phasing and the trend for a more suppressive northern jet continues.
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Yea my analysis was a mess. I do buy this as a legit threat. I have for several days now. It fits the pattern. It's looked good since it came into range on the very end of the ensembles. That doesn't mean it's going to happen for sure but I do think there is a high risk of a significant snow in the mid Atlantic. In fairness the run did start out suppressed. Through 144 compare it to the past 2 runs and it's south and weaker with a stronger high on top and more confluence. Then even at 168 it's a weaker system down in Georgia but the trough axis is further west which allows enough ridging to pop along the coast and the northern stream gets out of the way just in time for the system to gain latitude and go to town. It was a late save. But that's almost perfect for what we want.
