psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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You're a sick puppy.
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It is phasing with the NS and the temps crash and tighten right as it passes. It's unlikely. But it's the ggem so I'm not wasting much time on meso analysis.
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Ahh heck just let them freak out about the op
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The .5 qpf straddles the mason dixon line exactly same as 18z. Lol. rare to see two identical runs at this range.
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It's a fairly minor error that is creating the difference between suppressed and a hit. Ok put it this way...if a clipper was modeled to hit us at 120 hours how confident would you be that guidance was going to nail that? That's what we're talking about. If they are wrong about 12 hours or 150 miles with a northern stream vort we're talking about a big hit.
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Honestly toggling between the Fv3 gfs and ggem at 96 hours they have very minor differences. The ggem and gfs diverge after that with the ggem digging the northern stream vort in behind and phasing and the gfs crashing it down in front and squashing.
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No someone is just sitting at the computer wondering how much you can take before they hit enter...
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I like what I see over the northeast. But the heights are slightly more suppressive in the Midwest. In the end the heights to our north are more important but if those lower heights in the Midwest translate east later in it could be a wash. Overall minor changes so far.
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Have you met Ji?
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I remember a few trying to antagonize me into a meltdown. But I wasn't too concerned. Yea it was a bit nerve wrackinh but It was just one run and bounced back. it was a bit of a "hmm" after days of solid crush runs. But yea there was one euro run in medium range that cut me to a few inches and had D.C. on the fringe of heavy snow.
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2016 had curve balls too just not for D.C. But D.C. Went from the northern side of the bullseye to the southern edge in the last 48 hours. And NYC went from nothing to their largest snowfall ever.
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Not at this range. We have had a few examples of big storms that locked in day 7 but that's rare. Think of the 2 storms that teased us the last two January's. Both were way south at day 6. Both trended north enough to hit the coast and NYC. They were on the outside looking in like we are now at day 5-6. Last 2 march storms trended north. 2017 turned from a snow to a sleet storm. Last winter almost screwed us with the final north trend. The heaviest area of snow ended up in central PA and to NYC and they were mostly out of the game 72 hours out. 2016 I was hanging out on the northern fringe all week leading up. The heaviest actually ended up northwest of me! 20" got up into central PA. NYC was outside looking in then set their all time record. Feb 2014 I was up in central PA and outside looking in all week and ended up with 13". Do they always trend north? No...and like I said earlier if I had to bet this likely stays south. But it's close. 60/40 close Imo. I think because we haven't had a late save from the south lately people are thinking that just doesn't happen. But it can. We have been screwed by the north trend several times recently and places like Salisbury and ocean city and Richmond have been saved by it. Maybe it's our turn. Maybe not. But people are making way too many declarative statements based on fairly close misses at 120 hours. I wish guidance was that good but it's not!
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That's more disappointing to me than the gfs
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I guess but it's better then 12z. I just don't want to see squash city at this range. Once we get to about 100 hours I'll want to see consistent improvements or I'll start to worry more. At this range just keep it close.
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People need to stop making decisions based on single op runs at 120+ hours. The typical error at this range is still quite large. The guidance will spray solutions around but as long as it's not squashed down to Florida or cutting to our west we're still in the game. After the whole 0z suite maybe we will see a real trend but so far both the gfs and ggem were within typical error spread from their last runs for this range.
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Split the difference between the gfs and ggem.
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Excellent happy hour. I'll be leaving the bartender a nice tip!
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I don't believe them because the weeklies show what they show. I believe them because they show what we logically expected the pattern to evolve into given nino climo and all the signs so far this season. I definitely don't regret keeping my bullish snowfall forecast unedited. I don't know what more to wait for. The mjo keeps cycling cold then dying without any grand tours of the warm phases. The enso looks pretty close to the composite of all our big years. The PV is a weak pathetic pos this year that's getting beat around like a piñata. Everytime we get a trough in the east its storms galore. We're running cold and every attempt to flip quickly reverts. The nao looks ok and tends to only trend better later in nino years. Im all in. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Won't be the first or last time but I've seen enough. I expect this to be a big year and will be disappointed (and very wrong) if it's not.
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Hmm when have I seen that look before... oh like 5 days before almost every stj driven hecs we've had. I don't have a crystal ball and it could easily get squashed if the northern stream invents another vort to dive down at the wrong time...but this is exactly where I want an stj system at day 5 with only marginal blocking. I've heard there is none but that's not true, the combo of a displaced PV with some ridging in Greenland and that 50/50 acts as a weak bootleg block in this case. It won't show up on an nao index but it works to impact the longwave pattern the way we want. But it's relaxing in front as we want. We may well end up rooting for the north trend to stop before it's done.
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Fv3 so far looks identical but that's ok. I was fine with its last run and a near miss.
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Listen to mother!!!
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You're late
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I agree but that's a pretty typical gfs error at even medium range. Ok back to putting up lights.
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Everyone's got jokes tonight. Lol
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I'll post an explanation with visuals later when I have time ok.
