psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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It only goes to 90
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Both gefs and EPS building west based -nao in the long range.
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6z icon looks good to me. Stops at 120. Likely a very close miss but better.
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But it's on the page now so it's current
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Thanks for yesterday's news!
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Split the difference. Bipartisanship
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I think he meant they can't do it now while also working on the Fv3 rollout. They will shift to that once the Fv3 goes live. That was my take.
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The gefs switch won't be for another year
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You missed e16 last night. 3-4 feet.
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I never got off...but I'm getting dizzy and the guy keeps yelling at me that I've been out of tickets for hours and he's calling the police.
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He is running short of something
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Euro does a little fujiwara and tries for a late save but too little too late. I don't think this is a done deal yet but tonight wasn't a good move. On to day 4.
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At least CHO doesn't get any snow!!!
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Gfs had a run that didn't get anything into nc even. Lol. It's a bad run though. I agree that if we don't start to see any improvement in 36 hours it starts to become unlikely.
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Roanoke went from 15" to fringed. Lol
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Yea even more evident by 138. It's shifting the main show into NC. Dives that NS in like the gfs and squashed. Not a disaster but worse. Disappointing way to end the night.
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Ehh starting to look slightly more suppressed at 132.
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Through 120 I like the look of the stj system better but the pesky NS vort the gfs has is showing up too. If that can just get out of the way...
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Ok so the gefs Fv3 and EPS are all targeting about 100 miles southwest of D.C. With a major snowfall. The major factor suppressing it south is the northern stream flow over New England. In this case a vort diving down in front. Like a clipper. So if that's 100 miles north of where they project it...and how often is a clipper off 100 miles from day 5? I'm simplifying this but I think you think the error it would take to get the difference we need is greater than it is. ETA: of course the error could be the other way and this gets squashed more but we won't talk about such trivialities
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It's closer to 3 feet near me.
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I just don't get the weird over confidence in day 5+ guidance being dead on perfect. No one trusts them when they show a hit at day 5/6 but when it's a close miss they have to be right? Makes no sense. It's not even that I think it's going to happen. It's like 40/60 against to me. But having a 40% chance of a big snow 5 days out are better odds then we usually have. Give us that situation several times this winter...with luck we hit on 2/3. Add in a few smaller events and we all beat climo and are happy.
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Like I said a fairly small difference in how guidance is handling discreet northern stream vorts is leading to these differences. And the difference between a southern VA hit and a DC hit in the longwave pattern is a fairly minor error from this range. When the guidance shows us in the jackpot at 120+ hours no one trusts them. We know better. But when they show us getting fringed suddenly they are deadly accurate?
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Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine.
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It's gonna be e16!!!
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Wait for the ones in a couple days that go into Ohio!!!
