psuhoffman
-
Posts
24,042 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by psuhoffman
-
Oh something is going south alright...
-
Pull up the FV3 at 140 and then go back over like the last 8 runs...they are just bouncing around a center point that indicates a southern/central VA hit. Some are a little north, some a little south, but they are obviously all in the same general idea and basically saying the same thing for that range.
-
Just going off that precip SLP and h5 at 140 it looks like a central VA storm... but again that is kind of where I want it right now anyways. Botton line is nothing else looks like the GFS. There is a big difference between a close miss and a "not even close" look at this range.
-
The SLP is actually about the same at 144 on the UK and GFS BUT the UK has a much more favorable h5 flow on top to allow it to come up. Might not this run but its closer to what we need then the GFS which has the northern stream crushing everything.
-
It trended north from 6z if all you care about is the trend.
-
I did last night in the panic room... it said get your tear drop ready...its never going to snow again!!!! Its was a one time infinity extension to the 84 hour NAM! "this post inspired by Chuck"
-
If you look at the FV3 over the last 48 hours its pretty much locked in with each run only jumping around a little bit well within a normal error at this range. If you take the average of all those runs its obviously focusing its attention on southern into central VA. A few runs get DC into the mix and a few miss south... but the bottom line is the FV3 is "right there" with a close miss to the south. Its not suppressing the thing to oblivion. The kind of adjustments it would take from day 6 to turn a southern VA hit into a DC hit are a fairly minor synoptically for that range.
-
This... I don't mind it looking like a southern slider as long as the system looks healthy and its not being squashed into a weak wave off Jacksonville. We have seen that happen in the day 5-7 range the last few years and it doesn't recover. It has recovered from that look to be a tease "close but no cigar" in the end. We just need a little bit of relaxation of the 50/50 and associated vorts diving into new England. That isnt a big ask and its a typical error at this range more often then being too weak with those features. Having the consensus focused just to our south with a healthy storm isn't as problematic as when we were trying to will some squashed 1015 wave off Georgia at day 6 into a storm here.
-
close miss to the south... exactly where I want it at day 6 not kidding either
-
If the cmc is all you got then it's bad...but let's wait and see what the Fv3 ukmet and euro has to say. The cmc is fine to mention as being ancillary evidence in a camp but if it's all on its own it's very likely wrong. It's just fun to look at in the dead time after the gfs.
-
No need to over analyze the CMC precip and surface. This panel says all you need to know.
-
Where do you live again? Just wondering
-
Sound logic to me
-
The difference between the CMC and GFS are the NS system the gfs has rotating through just northeast of Boston at 144 is about 250 miles north of Quebec City on the CMC lol. That allows it to come up.
-
maybe but I think the problem is upstream not down. Look at the 50/50. Its way too strong/south and is backing up the flow behind it allowing all the vorts up in canada to pinwheel and dive into new england which suppresses the flow. I am not so sure how much the ridge in the west can help with that. Its almost ideal already and its not getting it done. We probably need that configuration to our northeast to relax some or be north of projections now for it to make a difference. The ridging out west is almost ideal. But all its doing is to compress the flow even more. Maybe that changes and hopefully I am wrong. I don't care how we get the northern stream out of our way I just want it out of our way!
-
Ahh I see that...yea I think I was ahead of you already on the panels... plus I was seeing the lower heights over the northeast and that 50/50 and thinking...even if its weaker all those vorts up in canada are going to continue to dig into new england in that look. We need that whole situation to relax and back off! But... that isn't out of the question at this range.
-
There have been some good improvements out west but that wasn't the problem to begin with. That isn't going to matter if what you circled in the northeast is there. Look at that wall!!! That has to relax, speed up, lift...anything or we are toast.
-
I dunno I still see that northern stream system diving in on top at the worst possible time... and the heights are even more suppressive this run over the northeast. The STJ is also weaker lol and I have no idea which is the "bigger" problem but I still didnt love the northern stream look either.
-
looks like it to me
-
yea not sure I like that...it would have to slow that down A LOT to get it behind the system... I was thinking speed it up or lift it north would be our better options... dripping in behind is ok, or out of the way ahead is ok...right in on top or just in front is no good... but as wxusaf points out its weaker too which also factors into the equation... either way we basically just need it to be wrong in one way or another to a decent margin but that isnt a big ask for a northern stream vort at this range. Its basically in the worst possible spot right now so any change is good kinda.
-
Exactly...that is the only thing wrong with the setup in terms of track. Get that out of the way a little bit and we would be good. Temps are always a concern this early, but get a storm first then I will worry about temperatures. I dont care what the temperature is if I am smoking cirrus.
-
Just need the northern stream vort that's diving through New England to adjust north a little bit.
-
Icon went south, targets central VA but I kind of like how it looks overall.
-
My only advice would be to calm down and just assume most "threats" will fail. It's only the first week of December and some seem already way too invested in this one threat. Overall...I like that we seem to be creating chances as a pretty good clip. Its still way too early to judge failure as a bad sign for the rest of the winter. Just getting "threats" this early is a good sign imo. There are no signs of the kind of winter killing pattern drivers like a raging positive AO or NAO and the blue ball over Alaska is becoming very transient looking. I am very optimistic on the whole for winter but any given storm threat from range should be taken as low probability. Our climo is what it is! As for this specific threat... As Don pointed out the current H5 configuration looks more like a southern mid atlantic hit and the guidance definitely has converged on that. But....the system is very healthy and it would only take a slight error in the current h5 forecast for everything to shift north...and north is more likely then south with the northern stream features imo. We just have to wait and see... I feel pretty confident the typical north adjustment will happen the last 72 hours. But that adjustment isnt 500 miles like it once was. We haven't really had any instances of a "late save" here lately because we have either been in the target zone or pretty far out of it going into the final stretch the last few years. We have seen some "not even close" misses become "close but no cigar" or fringe type events. If this is targeting VA I think we are in good shape. If this starts to look like a SC/NC event...it might be too much to ask. I was good with where the majority of guidance was last night. The euro suite improved and kept us in the game.
-
I agree about "real cold" but the pattern setting up towards the holidays is one that could produce a frozen event if the stj undercuts the ridging in canada. After that...if the trough in the Pac NW retrogrades and the EPO ridge pops we could go back into a cold pattern. One of the signs of a good year is when the bad periods arent that bad and quickly reload into a good pattern.
