psuhoffman

DCA is a minimum even for that region.

Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March.

I haven't given up on my 40" prediction. I had the chance to back down when everyone was doing their mid year evaluations and I decided to let it ride. Would I prefer we had scored maybe another 5-10" by now, of course, but I think we still are in the game to finish big. If my life depended on it I would say we probably fall just short of that, but I think we at least make a run at it. All it would take it one BIG hit for us to get there imo.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1750514866593395179?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

I don’t know what to make of it. It’s an anomaly that’s unusual and something I’ve not seen before. I’m sticking a pin in it. That’s it. I’d much rather the pattern look good than the snow products. The details usually follow the pattern. You’re jumping between two arguments here though. I was using individual control runs to analyze why the means might be doing that. The individual runs do pick out wave tracks. They have to because those tracks are a product of the thermal boundary which is a product of the pattern. They’re all related. You couldn’t design a product to accurately predict the pattern but disregard thermals or storm track. They’re all linked. Screwing up one affects the others. Look I can’t explain it. It’s weird. I don’t get it either. It makes no sense at all to have that kind of blocking and pattern and not much snow south of 40. It just doesn’t. So I pointed out something very unusual. People can make of it what they want or dismiss it. I haven’t really edited my expectations at all based on this. I’m just flagging an oddity and we can come back to it later if it actually goes down that way.

Relax Randy’s stuff is in good fun.

@stormtracker I’m keepIng an eye on it. But it’s going to have extreme boundary thermal issues to start. I don’t think the gfs wonky progression with a weaker disconnected secondary can work. It wouldn’t likely cool the boundary enough for 95. Your better bet is to get the euro solution with a more phased system that stalls and really deepens, only get it to happen 75 miles south of where 12z had it. We saw an adjustment like that last week it’s not impossible. Improbable but not impossible.

Last I want to say on this, I did that "upstairs analysis" several times over the last 10 days I've scrolled through the daily plots on the control runs, saw some H5 pass through VA, a 990 low off the delmarva and was like "there is our HECS" then went to the snow maps and was like..."where's the snow". It was up in northern PA, similar to that storm 3 weeks ago. It's also worth noting that the EPS Mean kind of hints at the same thing, with a trough axis to our south indicating a good storm track, but with a snow mean displaced north of us. So while everyone is drooling over the EPS H5, and I am too, I am just trying to put it out there that the EPS is hinting that we might have temp issues despite the perfect pattern. Will we, who knows...but if it goes down that way the guidance did warn us. That's all.

But I'm talking about individual members within that mean that also show a perfect pattern but displace the snow north of us. That is a little different. If it was just the mean I wouldn't say anything...the mean can be washed out easily. But I have followed these long range products for years. This is unusual. It's not just a fluke run or two. Its been a consistent theme on the extended control members for like 10 days now to have some absolutely perfect beautiful pattern but the snow is well north anyways. That is odd, that is not something I have observed much. Usually if there is some -3 NAO with a perfect pacific pattern they show a bunch of snow over us. Now...usually theyre wrong and that pattern just never happens or isnt as perfect when time comes...and we fail. But its unusual to see that kind of pattern and the snow to be that far north. I think it's worth noting it at least. I think its wrong, but in the event it isn't its worth going in eyes open about it.

They showed some snow but less than we got, but that was because they were two pretty weak insignificant waves in the flow. They both hit us flush and we maxed out and so one small area, US, did well. But in a grand sense they were very insignificant synoptic events that long range guidance will have a hard time seeing well. Longer range guidance does a little better seeing where the general track of major waves might be. Because that was a significant wave, and it took a perfect track, we were just a little too warm when it came down to it, but from distance the runs that thought it would be slightly colder, were indicating what would have happened had it been a few degrees colder leading into that event. That was our one chance at a MECS level snowstorm this winter so far and it failed simply because it was a few degrees too warm. Guidance was right to be indicating potential there.

The fighting has become ridiculous this week. Why not just let everyone think, feel, and talk however they want? Ok, so I get it that if you're happy with the winter having to hear someone post about how not happy they are can be frustrating. But know what is more frustrating, the 25 posts back and forth where the people happy are telling them not to deb, and then the 25 posts from the people not happy telling the happy people that its not good enough. Or maybe you think a specific topic doesn't belong here, but unless its really egregiously off topic why not just let it go because that's better than the 25 posts arguing about what we should or shouldn't talk about in every thread. Why not just let everyone be and talk how and about what they want? Read the posts you are interested in and skip the stuff you are not. Filling up the threat with crossfire about how to feel and what to talk about is making it so much worse imo. I am sure given the mood of the board I will probably be told to F off and then we will fight about what I just said...but I thought I would at least try.

I acknowledged I usually don't put much stock in the snowfall products BUT this isn't totally accurate, yes usually they are pretty close to climo but the few times over the years I've seen the extended products look that THAT, they usually did show a mean skewed south into the mid atlantic. The tell tale sign is when the snow mean doesn't really even increase to the north much until you get way into Canada. I saw that back in 2019 for example. It never happened because the extended guidance was wrong about the pattern and that amazing looking Feb 2010 clone pattern just never actually became a reality. There were times in 2014, 2015, and 2016 when the snow means at weeks 3-5 showed a crazy anomaly centered over the mid atlantic also....and guess what we got some big snows eventually each of those years. We just have not had the kind of patterns where the guidance SHOULD be showing much of a positive snow anomaly over us the last 8 years. March 2018 I also think towards late Febuary the extended guidance was showing a mean skewed south with that coming blocking episode. In the end we had 2 storms suppressed and squashed during that window so it was too much blocking maybe. Another point, I have been keeping an eye on the control runs to see what they show to get an idea of what an individual member might look like. This only works when the control matches the mean pattern but most runs it has. There have been several OMG LOOK AT THAT PATTERN runs of the control in the last week...and yet DC had little or no snow from them! That isn't an issue with a mean, that is an individual run that was saying despite a -3stdv block and perfect pacific we were going to see several storms manage to track north enough for us to get mostly rain from the pattern. The other day there seemed to be a few perfect track rainstorms in there judging from the daily SLP plots. Saw a few daily SLP where I was like ok there is our HECS then the snow plots showed nothing until up in PA. I agree it's not something to be overly worried about. But I think its worth mentioning and taking note that the guidance is not aligning the snow output with what you would expect looking at the pattern.

I’m pretty sure it’s coming. My only concern is despite a height pattern that says the snow axis should be centered south of 40* the ens mean continues to have the snow focused pretty far north. Today’s euro control is another good example also. Look at the 30 day mean h5 and you think “omg Raleigh to DC must be getting smoked” but then look at the snow and it’s mostly all NW of DC centered central PA up into New England again. This isn’t a one run fluke it’s been consistent every run lately. @Terpeast curious your take. Usually I disregard snow output at range completely but given everything lately and how much we have riding on this upcoming pattern I’ll be honest it has me at least mildly perplexed.

I thought that but I’ve been posting the control to show even the individual runs seem to have that incongruence. As for why it seems there are a lot of perfect track rainstorms on the runs similar to that storm earlier this month where despite a good track the snow is northern PA into New England. I’m not too worried about it. History beats surface output at range 90% if the time. Just pointing it out.

Those Millers numbers are pretty close to mine. For the several I was here for on that list I had snowcover just a few days longer. 2021 I lost snow March 2 v Feb 27. Makes sense most storms Millers is pretty close but typically maybe an inch less. I knew it snowed more up here but I was most surprised after moving here was how much longer snowcover lasts here v in the metro areas.

Been the opposite of can kicking the last week. At one point it looked like Feb 11 before we got to what the ensembles are now showing around Feb 8.

The point isn’t that the 1100hr is correct. It’s that it’s consistently been showing despite a west based block and a trough axis to our south the snow is to the north. That’s worth mentioning. That h5 look should place the core of snow south of 40 not north of it.

Something continues to be a recurring theme, great looking pattern, lackluster snow output. Yesterday’s euro control was the best example yet. This 30 day mean pattern Still put the axis of snow north of us with that pattern we should be more worried about suppression. It’s been doing this a lot. Suggesting the snow will be displaced north of where I expect based on the pattern. Not saying I buy it. Long range snow means aren’t often great tools. Just flagging this in case it does happen to note the models keep showing it.

maybe we should...but often it belongs here since history is how we predict the future. What's happened during past similar patterns is very pertinent to the discussions here about upcoming pattern expectations.

Thanks, I think I finally turned a corner the last few hours.

I found the numbers I had put together back in the fall...and this was why I went with such a big number this winter. I didn't just pull that out of weenie wishcasting... Since 2000 these are BWI's avg snowfall numbers by enso Mod/Strong Nino: 56.7" Weak nino: 19" Neutral enso: 12" Nina: 11.7" The bar in a mod/strong nino cannot be to "get to 20". Our avg snowfall is not evenly distributed. In reality we get a lot of snow in mod/stron ninos, a decent amount in weak ninos, and we SUCK ASS in every other winter. We have to score HUGE in mod/strong ninos or its a big fail. Just in case someone thinks "that's too small a sample size..." if we go all the way back to 1950 and take all Mod/Strong basin wide nino's with a decending -QBO BWI averages 42". Hence...why I predicted a little over 40". Again I didn't pull that out hopefully, that is what the data says the bar should be this season. I grade seasons on a curve based on these factors. Also...keep in mind neutrals can be better in a favorable PDO cycle but they are atrocious during a hostile PDO base state. Nina's tend to be pretty bad regardless of the PDO base state heading in, but 1996 did turn out better because the nina never coupled and we got a favorable PDO all winter. So there is some nuance...but in general I would consider a 15-20" winter a huge huge huge success if it was a neutral or nina season. Thats a HUGE win. In a mod/strong nino, its a huge fail. Its just different imo.

I made a mistake and thought you were arguing his point about what expectations should be this season for total snowfall...now I think maybe the discussion was more about expectations up to this point. Sorry. I am still not close to 100%, that's no excuse but I was lazy and didn't really follow the whole thread like I normally do.

Thank you. Sunday night I got very sick and tested positive for the flu. I was at a large party Saturday so I guess its not shocking... the last couple days were awful, but I think I am starting to feel better now.

I disagree with his attack on others. I agree with the one point that the bar this winter is way higher than just trying to hit climo. That was the only part I was trying to comment on.

I just did. I’ve been very sick and thought maybe I missed something. Now I’m just confused. I think perhaps people are interpreting the same posts differently. I’m not trying to fight. I don’t have the energy. If people are saying where we are now is unacceptable that’s a little silly. We’ve done ok and we have what’s always supposed to be our best window coming up. We are still very much in the game to get a 30”+ winter. But I also disagree with some posts that seem to imply just eeking close to climo this season is “acceptable”. @osfan24 had an accurate point wrt climo by enso. I gave the numbers. When I feel well enough to get to my computer I’ll post the chart but our snowfall is so heavily skewed towards Ninos that we need most of them to be big or our overall avg will collapse because we typically get well below avg in every Nina and neutral winter. But people complaining now are being premature.