psuhoffman

Suddenly that bleep head is all over it. But seriously, I've mostly just ignored it all year, someone just posted an example of this today with BAMWX, but its become a "thing" for all these competing hypster accounts to pick a fight with each other over some inane timing difference, often intentionally being obtuse about it. Like with BAM, they go nuts about "everyone calling for cold" then cite the warmth this week, then say yea but it will get cold later in Feb, which is what everyone is saying. But they are relying on their loyal audience not knowing that and thinking they are owning everyone else. Its dishonest, annoying, and a clown show.

Omfg an ensemble mean 30 days out is never going to have comparable anomaly depth to an actual historical period. Any outlier members mute the anomaly. You’ve made this statement two days in a row and it’s ridiculous

It jumped south a bit the last 2 days already. My guess it continues to bleed that way

Not me. Just about every Nino pattern match produced multiple big storms

I know everyone thinks I think it shouldn’t snow anymore. No. My arguments are just we are losing marginal events. 20% maybe v 50 years ago. By whatever metric though and even factoring that in we’re so overdue for an epic dump. This is our chance. It’s been forever but everything’s lined up at the right time of year (I’d rather slightly late than early!) in a Nino and an stj about to go bonkers. It’s time to cash in.

Seriously it’s time to end this nonsense. Everything’s lined up. We just need the finish.

More than one

30 days.

Chuck isn’t impressed

@Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree.

The weeklies are a smoothed mean. You’re never going to see a -3 Stdv block on a 30 day day 10-40 mean. But if you look at some of the individual control runs they show that.

It’s classified as moderate by the ONI https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

lol relax, Ji always poo poo's the weekly snow mean maps. And my point is regarding the control runs, it made a huge jump south today, but yea we want to see those 50" numbers centered over DC, and yes that can happen in this type of pattern. The control run can and does see discreet threats, its just an extended regular model run, when it shows the same general pattern, and it has consistently every day lately, it can hint at what the specifics COULD look like. But yea its likely to be way off at these ranges, no one should be freaking out about it, I said we have plenty of time...but its true that when/if we starting seeing those crazy 40"+ totals centered south of 40 on some of those long range control runs is when its go time. That's the look we typically get 1-2 weeks ahead of our crazy snow periods.

A hudson bay high works just as well as a -NAO if there is a 50/50 stuck east of it and a STJ cutting under. Its not a HECS look but we've had plenty of SECS/MECS events from a setup like that.

There is some crazy shit starting to show up in the long range. Storms getting trapped under 40* and meandering around. Redonculous retrogrades. Fun times ahead.

2010 wasn't a strong nino, BUT...since this season isn't really behaving like a super strong nino if we want to be optimistic and add moderate nino's to the mix then I suppose it brings 1996 and 2011 into the equation.

1958 is one of 3 times in the last 75 years DCA got 10” in March. DCA had 28” between Feb and March 58. 32” in Feb 2010.

Look y’all. Don’t settle. Seriously. Yes wanting to see those 50” totals over us is greedy. But do you realize what pattern the eps and gefs are showing? This is a once every 20 years type thing. This is the time to be greedy. There are 2 perfect match Feb/March nino analogs to that look. 2010 and 1958. Now is not the time to settle. It’s all chips in time.

Yesterday and today’s looks much better but still a little north of what I want to see. Before some have a fit, there is plenty of time to see it get there but if you go back to periods when we were about to get crushed, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, and even some where it didn’t work out but it could have like 2018 and 2019…what you saw was a snow mean where snow actually decreased as you got north of the PA line! That’s when you start licking your chops! When I’m worried about the north fringe! There is time to get to that. It’s still far far out. And it’s adjusting towards that the last few days but not there yet.

Still too far north. But closer.

The last two nina's following a strong nino were awful so I dunno, I expect next year to be pretty bad.

There is no one spot that is representative of the whole region. People just have to know where they live. Obviously the people who live in places like Winchester or Leesburg can have higher expectations in March than places further southeast. UHI locations become especially problematic during the day in March.

DCA is a minimum even for that region.

Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March.