psuhoffman

Uh oh you just sent up the batsignal to @Stormchaserchuck1

The AIFS eps has a known under dispersion issue. So when it’s good it can be very good. And then it flips to nothing a run later. Thats a flaw with its ens. Any well distributed ensemble system from 200 hours isn’t going to snow some super crazy signal because at that range there should be a lot of variance to the perturbations.

It’s 200 hours out. What kind of signal are you expecting?

And that’s why you use the median not the mean

Yea that’s all that’s wrong

I just realized that was a 10-1 map. After looking at the kuchy I can push it to 60!

Thank god Carroll closed !

Flurries in Hanover. I need a coating bad. There is deer piss and sh!t all over the snow.

Can we compromise on 50? DC metro deserves it…but man don’t F over the northern fringes for the southern portion of our sub. They are doing like 200% better wrt climo the last 5 years than I am.

Keep us posted

I showed you yesterday how the EPS was so close and if that Baja wave just ejected a bit more energy…boom. Once in a long while I know what I’m talking about. There are still 5000 little things that can go wrong. Over amping becomes an issue if it ejects too much. Remember Jan 25! This time we won’t have arctic cold to offset a hostile track. But when guidance was squashing the thing I knew there was a good chance it came back because it needed a slight adjustment in a way models often are biased.

Euro says I might see my lawn sometime in May

In fairness it’s run 4 times a day and taking every time it spits out one random run at 200+ hours with snow isn’t fair to categorize it as “predicting a snowstorm”. This is only the 3rd time it was consistently hitting a specific storm for multiple runs. One is them ended up good. The other not. We will see.

That’s the lead wave. The main event is slightly better

But what if a 20”er is texting you a booty call?

@Stormchaserchuck1 the 2 times recently we got significant Atlantic side help during the 2nd half of the winter during a -PNA period we did stay cold and somewhat snowy. Late Jan early Feb 2021 and March 2018. I don’t think the blocking coming up will equal those two BUT we have a much colder antecedent airmass also so those two might wash out.

it was a weaker version of Feb 5 2010. Much weaker which duh Nina. But synoptically the same idea and progression. -PNA, pac wave ejects and is forced east under a block and can’t gain any latitude. Take the CMC and amp that wave a bit more and that’s our win scenario

It did a thing on my house

You think we shouldn’t take the op gfs at 200 hours too seriously?

Preach

The blocking trended better but the wave leaves too much energy behind and the EPS washes it out on most members as the weaker wave that ejects gets shredded by the flow. We need a stronger wave with that look

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003

@CAPE WRT AIFS ENS There are only 2 members that have any snow at all from the lead wave next week. The median snowfall from Saturday evening to Monday evening of PD weekend is about 3-4" across our area. The mean is closer to 5". The split is about 30% of the members have a VERY big storm with a classic 95 points NW MECS/HECS signature. Then there are another 20% that have something pretty decent...2-4 to 4-6" type storms...a few members have something very minor and about 40% have absolutely nothing. It was an improvement over the last 3 runs and got us back to where we were 24 hours ago when I made that post showing how "interesting" they looked. BUt yes...the total mean is inflated some. BTW, they are interested in your window too...the median spikes up another 1-3" during your period and the mean about 2-3" which is significant for that lead time

Which is my point. It used to be cold enough to overcome imperfections in patterns. I’ll give you an example. When I looked at every 5”+ snow at Baltimore from 1948 on there was a subset of storms in fall Hudson Bay high storms. Because the whole pattern was utter dog shit except for that one feature. Because a high there tended to force a favorable storm track and almost all these storms were warm and barely cold enough to snow. The most recent example was 1997. A horrible pattern. -pna. But we got an 8” wet snow storm when it was like 45-50 the day before and after the storm. But those have gone extinct. Now they are just perfect track rainstorms. Lately when the pattern isn’t perfect it’s too warm.

I could show you dozens of examples of snowstorms with a similar look