psuhoffman

It's a legit window, AIFS loves it, even before it spit out that HECS just now it's been all over it tossing out various east coast snowstorm solutions there. Other guidance hints at it. The 50/50 from the CAPE storm...whatever that ends up being, is the key to our chances with the window around the 24th.

AIFS has been really interested in Feb 24. I’m calling it the @Maestrobjwastorm

Just remember as we head into the final 1/3 of the snow season these helpful rules about what to expect when utilizing our guidance, just follow the chart If the GFS shows snow: It's not going to snow If the GGEM shows snow: It's not going to snow but you can raise one eyebrow If the Euro shows snow: It's not going to snow but you'll be tired from staying up until 1am If they all show snow: It's still not going to snow but it's going to hurt a lot more when it doesn't.

EVERYONE knows it's going to be warmer... but the PNA is the only thing unfavorable. The AO/NAO/WPO are all decent. And late Feb and March the PNA is not as significant as it is earlier in winter. We are trying to find opportunities to sneak a snowstorm in between the warm periods, which is very doable and has happened MANY times before in a -PNA late in the season. We almost did this weekend...if the wave was SLIGHTLY more amplified NW of 95 would be getting some snow Sunday in an otherwise warm period.

12z never updated, but.... I didn't see anyone post 6z which was pretty nice already lol. 12z op was improved so we can just assume 12z ENS are better right

AIFS ENS

But that is the best median we've seen

It knows where I live

I said they like snow chases not grail quests

I need it to snow somewhere...I have the kids Sunday-Monday and they love snow chases.

For the last 48 hours with the exception of that one crazy euro run that went nuts...what we've seen is pretty consistent across guidance IMO. There are clearly two main likely permutations here. If the wave is weaker and too much energy gets focused on that frontrunner secondary the storm slides south. If the wave is just a bit more amplified and or focuses on the main STJ wave we have the chance of some snow. The snow idea pops up randomly across about 20% of the guidance because that's probably about the odds of that solution. So we keep randomly seeing that idea pop up on something. That result is still in there...still a possible option, we just need to thread the needle with the amplitude and track of the wave.

I don't think this is likely, but at the same time I am a little surprised so many have totally given up on it. Especially for places NW of 95! It's actually trended colder the last 24 hours...now we really just need the wave to end up a little more amplified. I can remember plenty of times we were in worse shape at 72 hours and got some snow. Not saying this is likely, just that it's not such a crazy long shot that its time to be saying NEXT yet. We've tracked worse odds things than this.

OMG have you seen the UKMET? it shows absolutely nothing

Given the atlantic and look up top I doubt we get out of the rest of winter without ANY snowfall for us NW peeps. Of course we need some freaking precip for that to work

So we know who to sacrifice when it doesn’t snow

Next

18z AIFs ens and eps did improve. About 1/3 of the members are snowy ETA: NW of 95

In the last 20 years we had a 5" snowstorm the last week of Feb twice. That is definitely NOT our best week...but there are other weeks during winter where we've had only 1 or NONE...so why is it that week you are obsessed with?

dude do you realize how rare getting a 5" plus snowstorm is on any particular week? How often in the last 20 years have we had a 5" snowstorm ANY week?

What's wrong with saying something in a way that's less insulting?

I agree with some of this. But to be fair NWS doesn't issue 10-15 day forecasts. They issue general guidance like "likely to be above normal, or above or below normal precip" it's private sector agencies and people issuing daily specific forecasts at those ranges and yes its just to get hits and publicity not to make good forecasts. I like tracking threat windows. SO it's wroth it to me to glance at long range stuff once in a while to identify if there are any legit opportunities coming. But if you need to have a detailed forecast like "today it's going to 34 degrees with 3-5" of snow" no that kind of thing can't be made outside a few days. That isn't what looking at the long range is useful for. And if someone doesn't find it useful or worth their time to simply identify general pattern trends...they don't have to look. No one is forcing anyone to waste their time looking at day 15 ensemble means. lol

The last week of Feb thing has been an anomaly for sure, but its mostly recent. Things run in cycles, and a lot of it is just random chance...like getting 5 heads in a row if you flip a coin enough times. Further back we had plenty of significant snowstorms the last week of February...off the top of my head... 2015 we got that storm that was 6-12" across Maryland and 3-6" in VA the last week of Feb 2007: there was a 4-6" storm after the V-day ice storm the last week of Feb 2005: there was a 4-8" storm the last few days of Feb 2003: there was a 3-6" snow the last week of Feb after the PD2 storm 1993: There were two storms across MD the last week of Feb, Baltimore had about 3" from both but NW of 95 got like 4-6" from both storms. They were both snow to sleet storms 1987: that wet snow bomb I love so much was the last week of Feb 1986: there were two storms back to back in late Feb combined it was like 5-7" further back I know there was a big snowstorm the end of Feb 1966, I think it was like 8-12" across Maryland Recently somehow it hasn't snowed that week but we've had some big snowstorms just a few days before and after that week...and in the past it has snowed that week...so its just a fluke of random chance. The fact that we haven't had much snow in general at all anytime lately makes it easier for it to happen.

Depends on expectations... if you want some 2 week stretch of deep winter with snowcover...no but how often do we get that even in mid winter? not much. But we've had several March's recently that had significant snowfall, especially the further NW of 95 you go. 2005 we had a 4-8" storm across the area the first week of March 2009 there was a storm early March that some places SE of 95 got 10", up here I got about 6" 2013 places NW of 95 got a 6-10" snow early march 2014: 3 snow events...2 of them were pretty significant especially for VA 2015: a 6-12" snowfall across the area in early March 2017: the sleet storm 2-3" of sleet across much of the area, had about 8" up here 2018: a couple minor 1-2" snows and then the 4-8" storm March 20th, had 15" up here 2019: not sure what baltimore had but I got 3 snow events that totaled about 10" up here the first week of March. 2022: I got a 6" snowstorm in March, can't remember what Baltimore area had but it might have missed there That seems to be a pretty decent hit rate considering no one period has a ton of snow because our climo sucks! But early march is as good as any period except maybe Jan 20-Feb 10th. Yea that is our golden window...but outside that...the first 10 days of March are as good as say anytime before or after Jan 20-Feb10th imo for just getting snow. I think some let the fact the winter is about to end and it's depressing affect it. They get to the point where they just want to move on because they are frustrated.

I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been. I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean. But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things! When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does. Now... I do something else. Invest my time more wisely. However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting. Look at this PD threat. It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on. Thats valuable. We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at. The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance. We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways. The details weren't known until later. So it depends what your expectations are. IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that. But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.