Baum

First and final call: Front yard : 4" Backyard: Flurries/No accumulation

he's down for a 10" call from two days ago. You don't get to back out now.

LOT Afternoon AFD: DOOM

reach out to Brian D and have the thread renamed GHD ll.07

^ wow

really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY.

I'm going to take today's 12Z runs for my neck of the woods as a small win. Seems like models are converging on a common solution where I take a 4"-6" event but in the game for substantially more if a small shift north commences and or lake enhancement helps. Chicago folks seem to forget prior to yesterday's 12Z runs only 1 model(GFS) had us in the game at all. So a 2"-10" spread NW to SE across the area is actually an improvement over the past 36 hours, yesterday's 18Z GFS and NAM runs not withstanding.

fairly decent consensus at this point. We're just watching every 30 mile shift because it matters so much on the edge. Which is unfortunately where were riding. Nice looking storm. Many twists and turns still to come.

I never really pay attention to the NAM unless it's the 18Z run. All in all, sounds fairly bland.

nothings ever a lock. It's weather.

Chicago had never been modeled for such. And it still looks like in excess of 20" is on the table for those that catch both portions of the event.

To be honest at this point yesterday we were not even in the game per the GEM, EURO, and NAM. If you were anticipating a 2' snowstorm you were always going to be dissapointed. From what I can tell the GFS and Euro have sort of settled on a track that will split the metro. So your call of 4-8" looks reasonable and basically fits what LOT has out. Plenty of wildcards still in play track of main event, lake enhancement, exact placement of frontal band(which many times ends up different than modeled). Bottom line, it's a fun event to track and it sure seems like a good percentage of this forum will see a significant event over a 3 day period. So all is good. Enjoy the chase, as they say.

down time on the board before next model cycle. How bout some entertainment for the Chicago folks:

"beware of crazy ass social media posts"-LOT

ridin the NAM until I see a better model for my back yard next cycle

for Northeast IL folks. All caveats aside that it's NAM 84 out, and I'm a novice when it comes to model interpretation but liked the look of it as it seemed to bring the overunning back north into a good part of the metro as opposed to 12Z which kept it all south. Also, looked like 2nd wave was poised to do some damage as well.

Pretty clear GFS is a northern outlier at this point.

Today's 12Z GFS seems to agree.

you mean the alignment where if stalls 20 miles from my backyard? Nice looking run for those in the over running area.

eh. the model arguments are always subjective and actually vary to ones backyard. Yes, there is consensus on a storm, but go read LOT's last two discussions(which are excellent) and that'll detail the different model outcomes. Looked like the 6Z NAM ticked the initial overrunning band further into my neck of the woods. FWIW/

turns out the thread title is quite apropos...model consensus wise.

dueling weather PM AFD's Springfield, IL: "ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH/COLDER. " Quad Cities: OF NOTE, HOWEVER, IS THE EC ENSEMBLE AVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE MAIN AXIS OF SNOW RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH,

you mean you think a general 5"-10" event is more likely than a 20"-30" accumulation in the heart of the main band of heavy snow? I'm betting that way as well.