Baum

was pretty much on all 12 Z models and coming and going since yesterday: LOT AFD: A SECOND AND STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW, BUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE EURO AND CANADIAN BRING THE LOW INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND EXITING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING AND EXITING IT SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO BE BELOW FREEZING INDICATING AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. Quad Cities: FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. Indy: ENSEMBLE SPREAD GROWS CONSIDERABLY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL VARIATIONS OF SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW.

bonanza compared to the map postings 4 days ago showing zero qpf through the end of the month.

strange look. Canadian seems like a much more realistic solution.

they always ramp up as we get closer. It's when we get real close is the problem.

Agreed. Shame it will fall overnight. Love the mood flakes during the day in winter.

LOT: BROAD UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SUCH A REGIME TYPICALLY ACTS AS A HIGHWAY FOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS EVERY 1-2 DAYS, THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ITSELF MAY END UP RATHER BROAD AND UNFOCUSED (E.G. GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING PLENTY OF VARIANCE IN WHERE EACH CLIPPER WILL TRACK).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 127 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2022 SHORT TERM ISSUED AT 125 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2022 THROUGH MONDAY... WHEN IN A TRUE WINTER PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST, THERE OFTEN ARE AT LEAST MINOR EVENTS EVERY ~48 HOURS OR SO, AND THAT'S THE CONTINUED CASE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.

meanwhile: an some of the roads are terrible. Was probably going 5-10 mph as I approached a stop sign and still started to slide into the intersection. Yes they are. Seen 2 jacked knife semis and 3 cars in ditches in a 6 mile stretch on I-57 in Kankakee County.

last February.

In the last 10 days we have had a: winter weather advisory for 2-4" snow 12/28 winter storm warning for 4-6" of snow 1/1 Wind chill advisory with below zero temps and days below 15 degrees winter weather advisory 1/4 for ground blizzard conditions winter weather advisory for freezing rain/drizzle 1/7 all this in a dead pattern essentially. And certainly better than last year, which eventually went wild for a 6 week period around January 18th. PS you may get a clipper Monday AM which could give you a 1/2 inch.

happend before. it can happen again.

be rolling by the 20th of this month. hunch.

no question.

May.

It's real out there this morning.

were living a balmy North Dakota winter at this point. After a Tennessee Christmas.

^ now we get pumped over blowing snow advisories and sub zero wind chills. Beggars can't be choosers.

yep. guessing will get a window of some decent precip. at some point. But riding the " dry" idea is definitely the safe bet.

meanwhile Gino Izzi comes through again finding exciting potential in a rather benign early January pattern: "IF SNOWPACK REMAINS POWDERY AND BLOWABLE, THEN MAGNITUDE OF WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OPEN AREAS." who knew Chicago was the new Fargo.

about that IZZI hype for LOT: "HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SNOW ON THURSDAY HAS DROPPED QUITE A BIT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD THE IDEA THAT THE MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL, OF THE RESULTING SNOW WILL FALL DOWNSTATE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE TROUGH NOW FORECAST TO SET UP FURTHER SOUTH. A FEW MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ~HALF OF THE CWA, BUT THE TREND IS CERTAINLY POINTING TOWARD LITTLE TO NO SNOW. " squashed by forecaster DOOM

IZZI to the rescue in the LOT AFD if you need a hype fix during bland times and still recovering from the New Years Day storm fail: "THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING AND COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM IN OR NEAR OUR CWA. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM WITH SUPPORT FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ALL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN/OPEN UP THE CUT OFF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH THE REMNANT CHANNELIZED VORTICITY MAXIMUM FORECAST TO RIDE THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT, WITH THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SLOW TO DEEPEN THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. IT IS COMMON BOTH FOR MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE NARROW, CHANNELIZED VORT MAXES THIS FAR OUT, AND ALSO NOT UNCOMMON FOR GUIDANCE TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. THE ECMWF AND GEM DEEPEN THIS WAVE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS AND AT THIS POINT, A SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM COMBO IS REASONABLE. THE ECMWF/GEM WOULD BOTH THROW LIGHT QPF WITH THIS DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THURSDAY. THANKS TO THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, THERMAL PROFILES FEATURE A VERY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRIME DGZ, SO ASSUMING ASCENT IS RESPECTABLY STRONG, IT COULD BE A VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIO EVENT. IF LATER RUNS DO COME IN MORE AMPLIFIED, AS THEY OFTEN DO WITH THESE TYPE OF WAVES, A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE TRACK OF THE WAVE COULD RESULT IN A SNOW THREAT FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR CWA. CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL FLOW IN A FAVORABLE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO POINT LAKE EFFECT FIRE HOSE INTO OUR NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES FOR A TIME THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FARTHER EAST, BUT GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SET-UP FOR SOMEONE, THIS IS ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING. A LOT OF MOVING PIECES, SO A LOT COULD CHANGE, BUT THE THURSDAY-ISH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. " It's something.

it was a good run.

time to re up on my JB subscrition for 19.99 per month and be lied too versus the blunt sting of truth.